Golden Globes 2018: Predicting the winners

PHOTO: (L-R) James Franco in "The Disaster Artist" and Rachel Brosnahan in "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel."PlayA24 via IMDb | Nicole Rivelli/Amazon Studios via IMDb
WATCH #MeToo movement will take center stage at the Golden Globes

The Golden Globe Awards may have a different temperament this year -- think stars dressed in black and host Seth Meyers addressing the elephant in the room -- but in the end, it's about who takes home the prize.

"I suspect there’s going to be a lot of people bringing up the state of the industry," Joey Moser, senior contributor for Awards Daily, told ABC News. "It's one of the first big platforms where stars can address it directly."

From the show's promos, it does not appear that Seth Meyers will be shrinking away from the wave of sexual harassment and assault allegations that has roiled Hollywood either.

"I think it’s going to be there," Moser said. "But it would be very different if Ricky Gervais were hosting. Everyone would be on their toes. But Seth will approach everything very deliberately and with care."

How Meyers and the stars will respond to the #MeToo movement is not the only thing up in the air. Moser said with no obvious frontrunners in either the film or TV categories, "everyone is talking about how unpredictable this year is. Couple that with a history of the Golden Globes doing whatever they want and it should be a great show."

The Golden Globe Awards will air live on Sunday from the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

Here are Moser's predictions for the winners:

PHOTO: Elisabeth Moss as Offred in a scene from The Handmaids Tale. George Kraychyk/Hulu via AP
Elisabeth Moss as Offred in a scene from "The Handmaid's Tale."

TELEVISION


Best TV series, drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us
The Handmaid’s Tale

"'The Handmaid's Tale' is a 'shoo-in to win,'" Moser predicted.

Best actor in a TV Series, drama
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Jason Bateman, Ozark

Moser called Brown the "logical choice" for his performance in the NBC series "This Is Us." But, he added, "I would watch out for Highmore in 'The Good Doctor.' He's the riskier choice."

Best actress in a TV series, drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why

Like the series she leads, Moser believes Elisabeth Moss will win the Globe. "I don’t think there’s anybody who can beat her," he said, with the exception of Gyllenhaal, who received the sole nomination from her HBO series "The Deuce."

Best TV series, comedy
Black-ish
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Master of None
Will & Grace
SMILF

Like many critics this year, Moser has jumped aboard "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" train. "I predict it's going to win for couple of reasons," he said. "It's about a woman finding her own voice at a time when women's voices were being ignored. And Globe voters love Amazon shows. At least in the last five or six years, they have shown their love for Amazon."

PHOTO: Eric McCormack and Debra Messing in Will & Grace. IMDb
Eric McCormack and Debra Messing in "Will & Grace."

Best actor in a TV series, comedy
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Eric McCormack, Will & Grace
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
William H. Macy, Shameless

"This is really hard, but I'm going to go with Eric McCormack," Moser predicted. "I don’t think they are going to let another year go by without awarding the show. It would be a good way to break the streak of the show not getting a Globe ever." Moser said one indication that Globe voters could be leaning his way, McCormack and his co-star Debra Messing hosted the Globes 75th anniversary special. If he doesn't win, Moser predicted Bacon will. Not only is he a big star, but he's on an Amazon show as well.

Best actress in a TV series, comedy
Frankie Shaw, SMILF
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Alison Brie, GLOW
Issa Rae, Insecure
Pamela Adlon, Better Things

Moser went with the Globes "ingenue theory" and chose Brosnahan for her new show "Mrs. Maisel." "They love a fresh face," he said of Globe voters.

PHOTO: Nicole Kidman in Big Little Lies.Hilary Bronwyn Gayle/HBO via IMDb
Nicole Kidman in "Big Little Lies."

Best TV movie or limited series
Big Little Lies
Feud: Bette and Joan
Top of the Lake: China Girl
Fargo
The Sinner

"'Big Little Lies' is going to be a huge juggernaut," Moser predicted, giving the HBO series the win in this category.

Best actor in a limited series or TV movie
Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies
Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Jude Law, The Young Pope
Geoffrey Rush, Genius

Predicting the winner in this category was like "throwing a dart at a piece of paper," Moser said. He gave the edge to McGregor, who has been nominated twice before, but said MacLachlan, who won in 1991 when "Twin Peaks" first came out, has a shot as well.

Best actress in a limited series or TV movie
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies
Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan
Jessica Biel, The Sinner

Kidman, who's been nominated more than a dozen times for a Globe, is Moser's pick to win. But he suggested that a "real Globes move," one that would send Twitter into overdrive, would be to choose Biel for "The Sinner."

Best supporting actor in a limited series or TV movie
Alfred Molina, Feud
Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
David Thewlis, Fargo
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Moser's choice is Skarsgard, who won the Emmy for the same role.

Best supporting actress in a limited series or TV movie
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

Similarly, Moser predicted Dern for "Big Little Lies," but said he'd love to see Pfeiffer win for "The Wizard of Lies."

PHOTO: Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour.Focus Features via IMDb
Gary Oldman in "Darkest Hour."

MOVIES


Best motion picture, drama
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
The Post
Call Me by Your Name

Moser said the race for best drama is between "The Shape of Water" and "The Post." He said, the former, which has the most nominations, is also considered a "little strange," and Globe voters tend to go for movies that are "a little bit weird." The alternative, "The Post," is all about journalism and has the star power of Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks behind it. Moser said Globe voters may want to send a message about a free press by awarding the film.

Best actor in a motion picture, drama
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Even though Chalamet has been picking up critics awards, Moser thinks Globe voters will go with the more traditional choice of Oldman.

Best actress in a motion picture, drama
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Moser keeps flipping between Hawkins and Streep. Hawkins won the Globe previously for "Happy-Go-Lucky." But Streep is considered the "queen of the Golden Globes." Right now he gives the edge to Hawkins, who "gives an emotional performance without saying a word."

PHOTO: Saoirse Ronan in a scene from Lady Bird. The film, directed by Greta Gerwig, was named best picture at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, Nov. 30. Merie Wallace/A24 via AP
Saoirse Ronan in a scene from "Lady Bird." The film, directed by Greta Gerwig, was named best picture at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, Nov. 30.

Best motion picture, musical or comedy
Lady Bird
Get Out
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya

"Lady Bird" is Moser's pick. "The most affection lies with 'Lady Bird,'" he said.

Best actor in a motion picture, musical or comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Moser predicted Franco will win for his "super actor-y" performance, but he said he wouldn’t be surprised if Jackman takes the award because of the Globe's love for musicals.

Best actress in a motion picture, musical or comedy
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

"One of the surest bets of the night is Saoirse Ronan," Moser said, adding that the alternate is Robbie.

Best supporting actress in a motion picture
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Moser said this category is between two actresses known more for their television roles, Metcalf and Janney. Neither has won a Globe. "Janney's role is a lot bigger and louder," he said. "I think Janney is going to take it."

Best supporting actor in a motion picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Few would have predicted "All the Money in the World" would land three nominations, but after director Ridley Scott made the decision to replace Kevin Spacey with Christopher Plummer, Moser said Plummer could well take home the award for "pulling off what they did in that movie."
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