Another Preakness, another reminder of the achingly long drought since horseracing's last Triple Crown winner: 34 years and counting.
Affirmed (1978) was the most recent of only 11 thoroughbreds to claim the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes since 1919, and this year oddsmakers sure know how to deflate expectations by installing the Derby's second-place winner as the favorite to win the Preakness today.
But even a Preakness win by 2012 Derby-victor I'll Have Another could leave the 3-year-old chestnut where nearly a dozen horses have stood since the Affirmed Triple Crown title: winners of the first two jewels who've gone on to lose the Belmont.
Here are some theories for what has stood in their way.
|Too Many Horses|
This theory is grounded in probability, that the more horses in a race, the more difficult it is statistically to win. "In days gone by, we didn't have a full field come back in the Preakness and the Belmont," Graham Motion, the trainer of Went the Day Well and last year's Derby winner Animal Kingdom, told the Wall Street Journal this week.
Affirmed faced six horses in the 1978 Preakness. There will be 11 horses today in Baltimore.
|Too Short Recovery Time|
Three top-flight races in five weeks is a mountain of stress for any horse, especially with the longer Belmont Stakes completing the cycle in New York. "A lot of horses can handle the Derby and the Preakness, and can't handle the Belmont," Louie Roussel III, who was trainer and co-owner of 1988 Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star, told the New Orleans Times-Picayune two years ago. "The mile and a half is the true test of a champion."
Not that he's complaining: "The Triple Crown is like an iron-man contest. This is what makes the thing so wonderful."
|Too Many Prep Races|
Renowned horse trainer D. Wayne Lukas has pointed to the increasing importance of prep races to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which take their toll. "Before, you didn't have to work up so hard in February and March to get ready for the Derby," he told the Times-Picayune.
Big Brown was the last horse to win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont, in 2008.
|Too Much Speed Focus|
Lukas also pointed to breeders who sacrifice endurance for speed. "I think there's a trend to horses that look a little quicker," he said. "Distance horses are longer and leaner."
|Too Little Luck|
Yes, speed is paramount, along with resiliency and a jockey who knows his horse. But a run of good fortune doesn't hurt, either.
I'll Have Another will need it.