Will It Pass? Health Care Bill at Risk

Jan. 7, 2010— -- Democrats are near the finish line on health care legislation but they have yet to overcome one of the biggest hurdles -- merging the Senate and House bills together.

Although Congress is officially still in recession, key lawmakers are actively involved in intense negotiations to merge the two different bills that, while similar, have some important differences between them.

Experts say Congress is likely to pass the health care bill, but the political ramifications remain to be seen.

"I think that, still, the sense is, if this fails, it would be worse for them politically than if it passes, and I think that's a calculation across the Democratic party," Democratic strategist James Carville said on "Good Morning America" today. "My sense is it's still going to pass it at some point."

Republicans say the health care bill -- and the lack of bipartisanship involved -- could kill support from independents, a key voter group in the last presidential election.

"The problems with the health care bill that used to exist only on the right are now affecting the thoughts of the independent voters," Republican strategist Nicole Wallace said on "GMA." "We have to wait and watch and see. ... I think it will probably pass but I think they will do something that's even uglier than limping across the finish line."

With Democrats facing a brutal congressional election this year and the possibility of losing seats to the GOP, the Democratic leadership is eager to finish and pass the health care bill. But as final negotiations begin, there are several thorny issues that threaten to derail the bill:

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is the latest in the long line of Republicans to assail the special deal Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., received for his support of the Senate health care bill. Under the deal crafted behind closed doors, Nelson's home state would be exempt from $100 million in Medicaid payments that have been imposed to pay for the costly bill.

"While I enthusiastically support health care reform, it is not reform to push more costs onto states that are already struggling while other states get sweetheart deals," Schwarzenegger said in his annual "State of the State" Wednesday, adding that California's congressional leadership should "either vote against this bill that is a disaster for California or get in there and fight for the same sweetheart deal Senator Nelson of Nebraska got for the Cornhusker State. He got the corn; we got the husk."

While Republicans generally have lambasted the deal, Schwarzenegger's criticism is a new blow because the California governor was one of only a handful of Republicans to support Obama's health care overhaul efforts. The president in October even hailed the governor's backing.

Even Democrats, especially in the House, are angry with the deal. Some insist it should be removed, but they need Nelson's vote to ensure the passage of the bill, an issue that could be tricky to resolve.