How Many Docs Out There? It Depends on Who's Counting
Many estimates predict a doctor shortage soon, but report different numbers.
Oct. 22, 2009— -- The physician workforce in the United States is growing smaller and younger, according to data from the Census Bureau, yet conflicting estimates make it difficult to determine just how many doctors are out there -- and how many the nation will need.
The census survey showed 67,000 fewer physicians than estimates based on the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Whatever the actual number, the reduction in the workforce has been almost entirely the result of fewer active physicians age 55 and older.
At the other end of the career timeline, the census data suggested that the number of physicians ages 25 to 34 will continue to increase over the next 15 years.
"Projections based on both the CPS [Current Population Survey] and the Masterfile data indicate that the number of active physicians will increase by approximately 20 percent between 2005 and 2020," Douglas O. Staiger, of Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., reported in the Oct. 21 issue of JAMA.
"However, projections for 2020 using [census] data estimate nearly 100,000 fewer active physicians than projections using the Masterfile data." Staiger and colleagues wrote.
Compared to the AMA data, the census survey indicated that a smaller proportion of physicians will be 65 and older by 2020 (9 percent of total doctors versus 18 percent), they added.
Recent studies have indicated that the physician workforce may shrink to levels that do not meet national requirements by 2020. Some sources have estimated a shortfall of as many as 200,000 physicians, the authors said.
Studies of the physician workforce have often relied on the AMA Masterfile, which may overestimate the number of active older physicians because of delays in updating the database. As a result, recent workforce projections have reflected various adjustments to account for those delays.
To examine the extent to which the physician workforce might be overestimated, the authors conducted a parallel retrospective cohort study comparing the AMA Physician Masterfile and the Census Bureau Current Population Survey.
The Department of Labor has used the census data to examine employment trends, including trends for registered nurses. Both data sources were used to project the U.S. physician supply through 2040.
The authors examined employment trends among active physicians from 1979 to 2008 and used recent trends to project the future physician workforce by 10-year age increments. The authors defined active practice as at least 20 hours per week.
Related Stories
ABC News Live