High-Stakes Political Poker: Forcing Hamas' Hand

June 6, 2006 — -- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is playing high-stakes political poker.

If Hamas does not accept and agree to the contents of "The Prisoner's Document," Abbas threatens to take it to the people in a referendum.

The "Prisoner's Document" recognizes the 1967 borders and tacitly recognizes the state of Israel, which the Hamas-led Palestinian government refuses to do. It's a shrewd move by Abbas because it makes Hamas look counterproductive by rejecting the document, and appearing to reject a step toward peace.

Most importantly, Abbas' move forces Hamas to ask this question: "Will we as a government recognize the state of Israel."

A closer look reveals that is an attempt by Abbas and a small group of his Fatah supporters -- with the help of Israel, the United States, Jordan and Egypt -- to wrestle back control of the Palestinian government.

All of the secularist groups supporting this referendum by Abbas fear Islamic movements and have an interest in the collapse of Hamas.

The main author of "The Prisoner's Document," imprisoned Marwan Barghouti, is furious at Abbas for "hijacking" his paper. It was intended to be a basis for discussion, he said, not a final status document that would divide Palestinians.

A senior Hamas leader in Gaza says there is little room for negotiations.

"If Hamas recognizes this document, we slide down a slippery slope of concessions before even sitting at the negotiating table with Israel, exhausting any leverage we may have," he said.

A general complaint is the document is too general and can be interpreted in too many ways. Also, the points in the document are a nonstarter for Israel because the terms would be unacceptable to the Israeli government in any peace deal.

If the referendum goes ahead, many believe that Abbas is too weak to push it through and that he does not have the infrastructure to run a political machine. If he fails, he is finished and it is expected Fatah will collapse.