U.S. Has Little to Back Up Tough Talk With Russia

Aug. 28, 2008— -- Washington is warning the Kremlin it could face consequences for a decision this week to recognize the independence of two breakaway regions in neighboring Georgia and for continuing to defy calls by the United States and its allies to remove Russian troops from Georgian territory.

What does Russia have to fear from the Bush administration?

The answer, according to experts, is not much.

"There are no steps, none," said Dimitri Simes, an expert in U.S.-Russian relations and president of The Nixon Center.

"Any steps might allow us to feel good that we have done something, but they don't amount to much and they certainly don't amount to something that will change Russian behavior," Simes said.

"There are no quick fixes to this," said James Collins, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "We are going to have to find a way to be very realistic about what we are and are not able to do."

"I think there is very little, frankly, that the U.S. can do to compel the Russians to change their behavior, especially in the short term," Collins said. "Let's face it, we aren't the biggest power in the region."

The administration's rhetoric hardened after Russia recognized the independence of breakaway Georgian provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"Russia's action only exacerbates tensions and complicates diplomatic negotiations," President George W. Bush said in a statement.

"We're reviewing our relationship with Russia," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said Wednesday.

So far, no concrete steps have been taken and the West's lack of leverage with Russia is apparent as Russian troops have remained in Georgia for almost three weeks despite calls by the international community for Moscow to withdraw its forces.

U.S. officials have suggested that, as punishment, Russia could be excluded from key international institutions, like the G8, and blocked from joining economic and trade organizations it wants to join, like the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.