Securing Baghdad and Keeping it Secure

— -- The US and Iraq are obviously conducting a major security operation. Reports indicate that a total of 70,000-75,000 men US troops may be involved. This is twice the number of forces involved in the last major effort to take control of Baghdad, Operation Lightning, which was conducted in May 2005.

It is far too soon to make any judgments about this operation. Prime Minister Maliki has said that the Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Interior will provide more details, but even when they do, sheer prudence indicates that such briefings will not disclose many details about the size of the forces engaged, their goals, the duration of the operation, and how they will proceed.

This operation comes after a major sweep of al Qa'ida and insurgent cells in Baghdad and the country. It builds on previous success. At the same time, the dangerous areas in Baghdad have crept back to at least the size they were in early 2005. Senior Iraqi officials make it clear that they also see the threat as both insurgent and a mix of militias and local security forces.

Iraqi officials discuss Baghdad as having 20-33% of Iraq's population. Estimates of six million people are common, although it is unclear any real estimate exists beyond the data gathered for voting registrations and the UN food for peace program. Regardless of the numbers, even 80,000 men would be a small force in terms of the total population and area to be covered. Moreover, only part of any such force can be deployed. No matter how many people are publicly announced as being involved in the operation, such totals inevitably include large numbers of support forces, headquarters units, etc.

Accordingly, for an operation to have real meaning, and produce sustainable results, it has to go far beyond manning check points, establishing a visible presence, and creating the image of security. These are politically important, but they also will be hollow if they are the core of the operations. Insurgents and militias can simply wait out the operations, bury their arms, shift to targets in other areas, and operate around and outside the checkpoints and areas where forces are present.