Lebanon on the Brink

Nov. 21, 2006— -- The killing of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel carries risks for political stability and social harmony in the country.

I was not surprised by Gemayel's assassination. The political situation is highly fragile. There is an intense power struggle taking place among the leading communities, most of whom are allied with warring regional and great powers.

This struggle is multifaceted and complex: It is partly sectarian, partly political and partly along regional and international alignment. There also exist multiple fault lines within each community. Simply put, the Lebanese people are deeply divided among themselves.

Complicating the problem is that Lebanon serves as a battlefield and staging arena for regional and international powers. A fierce battle israging in Lebanon between the American-led alliance and the Iranian-Syrian front.

In a way, last summer's confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah was a war-by-proxy. Today's murder is an extension of this deadly power play by powerful outside forces.

At this early moment, it is difficult to say who killed Gemayel. There are several players who had vested interests in his elimination.

My instincts tell me that those who pulled the triggers are Lebanese. The critical question is, did those killers receive direct orders from regional players, or just a nod? Regardless of who assassinated Gemayel, he will not the last.

The murder pours gasoline on a raging fire in Lebanon; it pushes the country a step closer to the brink of abyss. Lebanon stands on the vergeof another disaster.

It is up to the Lebanese to close ranks and unite before it is too late. They need plenty of support from the international community, particularly neighboring Arab states, to help them resolve their internal differences and to recover from last summer's devastating war. Will the Lebanese people and the international community step up to the challenge?

Fawaz Gerges, a Lebanese American, is a professor of international affairs and Middle Eastern studies at Sarah Lawrence College.