How Some 2016 Candidates Might (Not) Get Home State Advantage
There’s no place like home – unless you’re running for President in 2016.
— -- There’s no place like home – unless you’re running for President in 2016.
In the long road to the nomination, some candidates from delegate-heavy states may hope to get a boost thanks to home field advantage. But an ABC News analysis of state level polling found that most candidates aren’t doing much better on their home turf than in the national spotlight.
Over the spring and summer, many candidates – like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and even New York Gov. George Pataki – once sat atop the polls in their home states.
But now the playing field has changed, cutting Jeb Bush’s support by two-thirds in Florida, chopping Kasich’s support in half in Ohio, and Christie’s support falling more than 30 points in New Jersey.
Here’s the breakdown of how candidates perform when they compete for the nominations in their own backyard:
FLORIDA – Former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio used to top the polls in June, but now sit in the second tier. Bush had the most dramatic fall – his Florida support cut to almost a third of what it was in February. Meanwhile, Rubio has maintained stable support, hovering in the mid-teens.
Quinnpiac on 10/8: Trump 28, Carson 16, Rubio 14, Bush 12, Fiorina 7, Cruz 6…..
Quinnipiac on 8/20: Trump 21, Bush 17, Rubio 11, Carson 11, Fiorina 7, Cruz 7…..
Quinnipiac on 6/17: Bush 20, Rubio 18, Walker 9, Carson 7, Huckabee 6, Paul 5…..
Quinnipiac on 3/30: Bush 24, Walker 15, Rubio 12, Carson 8, Cruz 7, Huckabee 6…..
Quinnipiac on 2/3: Bush 32, Rubio 15, Huckabee 11, Walker 9, Carson 8…….
OHIO – Gov. John Kasich has gone from leading in August to having his support cut in half in just two months, dropping 14 points to third place in Quinnipiac polling in his home state, where he is currently governor. Still, his 13 percent support in Ohio is better than his national numbers, where he remains in the low-mid single digits.
Quinnipiac on 10/8: Trump 23, Carson 18, Kasich 13, Cruz 11, Fiorina 10, Rubio 7, Bush 4…..
Quinnipiac on 8/20: Kasich 27, Trump 21, Rubio 7, Cruz 7, Carson 6, Fiorina 5, Bush 5……
Quinnipiac on 6/17: Kasich 19, Bush 9, Walker 8Rubio 7, Pall 7, Huckabee 7……
Quinnipiac on 3/30: Kasich 20, Cruz 9, Huckabee 9, Walker 9, Bush 8, Carson 8….
Quinnipiac on 2/3: Kasich 14, Walker 11, Bush 10, Paul 10, Carson 8…….
PENNSYLVANIA – Former Sen. Rick Santorum started as a player in the race for Pennsylvania’s delegates in the GOP nomination race back in the spring, but now he’s just a footnote in his home state, reflecting his low standing in national polls.
Quinnipiac on 10/8: Trump 23, Carson 17, Rubio 12, Fiorina 8, Cruz 6, Christie 5, Bush 4, Huckabee 4, Kasich 3, Santorum 2…
Quinnipiac on 8/20: Trump 24, Carson 13, Rubio 10, Fiorina 7, Bush 6, Cruz 5, Paul 5, Santorum 4…..
Quinnipiac on 6/17: Rubio 12, Paul 11, Carson 10, Bush 10, Walker 9, Santorum 7…..
Quinnipiac on 3/30: Walker 14, Santorum 9, Bush 9, Carson 9, Rubio 7, Cruz 7……
Quinnipiac on 2/3: Bush 12, Christie 11, Huckabee 10, Santorum 8, Carson 8, Cruz 6, Walker 6...
MARYLAND – Former Gov. Martin O’Malley. While others have been getting a little love in their home state, O’Malley hasn’t been getting any. The former governor has been holding it down in the bottom tier.