How Some 2016 Candidates Might (Not) Get Home State Advantage

PHOTO: Marco Rubio, left, is pictured on Oct. 6, 2015 in New York City. Carly Fiorina, center, is pictured on Oct. 2, 2015 in Aiken, S.C. Jeb Bush, right, is pictured on Sept. 17, 2015 in Las Vegas.Spencer Platt, Sean Rayford, Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Marco Rubio, left, is pictured on Oct. 6, 2015 in New York City. Carly Fiorina, center, is pictured on Oct. 2, 2015 in Aiken, S.C. Jeb Bush, right, is pictured on Sept. 17, 2015 in Las Vegas.

There’s no place like home – unless you’re running for President in 2016.

In the long road to the nomination, some candidates from delegate-heavy states may hope to get a boost thanks to home field advantage. But an ABC News analysis of state level polling found that most candidates aren’t doing much better on their home turf than in the national spotlight.

Over the spring and summer, many candidates – like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and even New York Gov. George Pataki – once sat atop the polls in their home states.

But now the playing field has changed, cutting Jeb Bush’s support by two-thirds in Florida, chopping Kasich’s support in half in Ohio, and Christie’s support falling more than 30 points in New Jersey.

Here’s the breakdown of how candidates perform when they compete for the nominations in their own backyard:

 

FLORIDA – Former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio used to top the polls in June, but now sit in the second tier. Bush had the most dramatic fall – his Florida support cut to almost a third of what it was in February. Meanwhile, Rubio has maintained stable support, hovering in the mid-teens.

Quinnpiac on 10/8: Trump 28, Carson 16, Rubio 14, Bush 12, Fiorina 7, Cruz 6…..

Quinnipiac on 8/20: Trump 21, Bush 17, Rubio 11, Carson 11, Fiorina 7, Cruz 7…..

Quinnipiac on 6/17: Bush 20, Rubio 18, Walker 9, Carson 7, Huckabee 6, Paul 5…..

Quinnipiac on 3/30: Bush 24, Walker 15, Rubio 12, Carson 8, Cruz 7, Huckabee 6…..

Quinnipiac on 2/3: Bush 32, Rubio 15, Huckabee 11, Walker 9, Carson 8…….

 

OHIO – Gov. John Kasich has gone from leading in August to having his support cut in half in just two months, dropping 14 points to third place in Quinnipiac polling in his home state, where he is currently governor. Still, his 13 percent support in Ohio is better than his national numbers, where he remains in the low-mid single digits.

Quinnipiac on 10/8: Trump 23, Carson 18, Kasich 13, Cruz 11, Fiorina 10, Rubio 7, Bush 4…..

Quinnipiac on 8/20: Kasich 27, Trump 21, Rubio 7, Cruz 7, Carson 6, Fiorina 5, Bush 5……

Quinnipiac on 6/17: Kasich 19, Bush 9, Walker 8Rubio 7, Pall 7, Huckabee 7……

Quinnipiac on 3/30: Kasich 20, Cruz 9, Huckabee 9, Walker 9, Bush 8, Carson 8….

Quinnipiac on 2/3: Kasich 14, Walker 11, Bush 10, Paul 10, Carson 8…….

 

PENNSYLVANIA – Former Sen. Rick Santorum started as a player in the race for Pennsylvania’s delegates in the GOP nomination race back in the spring, but now he’s just a footnote in his home state, reflecting his low standing in national polls.

Quinnipiac on 10/8: Trump 23, Carson 17, Rubio 12, Fiorina 8, Cruz 6, Christie 5, Bush 4, Huckabee 4, Kasich 3, Santorum 2

Quinnipiac on 8/20: Trump 24, Carson 13, Rubio 10, Fiorina 7, Bush 6, Cruz 5, Paul 5, Santorum 4…..

Quinnipiac on 6/17: Rubio 12, Paul 11, Carson 10, Bush 10, Walker 9, Santorum 7…..

Quinnipiac on 3/30: Walker 14, Santorum 9, Bush 9, Carson 9, Rubio 7, Cruz 7……

Quinnipiac on 2/3: Bush 12, Christie 11, Huckabee 10, Santorum 8, Carson 8, Cruz 6, Walker 6...

 

MARYLAND – Former Gov. Martin O’Malley. While others have been getting a little love in their home state, O’Malley hasn’t been getting any. The former governor has been holding it down in the bottom tier.

Goucher College on 10/6: Clinton 43, Biden 23, Sanders 17, O’Malley 2, Webb 2…..

Washington Post on 10/5: Clinton 63, Biden 9, Sanders 3, O’Malley 3

Washington Post on 2/16: Clinton 72, Biden 8, O’Malley 5

 

NEW YORK – Donald Trump leads the GOP nomination race in his home state, performing even better there than in most national polls. Former Gov. George Pataki actually tied for the lead over a splintered field in one poll this summer, but a separate poll now shows him near the bottom of the pack, reflecting his national struggle for support.

Siena College on 9/21: Trump 34, Carson 14, Bush 11, Christie 9, Fiorina 8, Rubio 5, Kasich 4, Cruz 3, Pataki 3…

Quinnipiac on 6/3: Pataki 11, Rubio 11, Bush 10, Walker 7….. (no Trump yet)

Quinnipiac on 3/18: Bush 13, Walker 13, Christie 12, Rubio 10, Paul 8, Pataki 6, Carson 6….. (no Trump yet)

 

NEW YORK – Former Sen. Hillary Clinton did hold a dramatic lead in New York over the summer, but a separate poll now shows her lead at more than 20 points – mirroring her lead shrinking in national polling. She also leads top Republicans in the general election.

Siena College on 9/21: Clinton 45, Biden 24, Sanders 23…

Quinnipiac on 6/3: Clinton 55, Sanders 15, Biden 9…..

Quinnipiac on 3/23: Clinton 51, Biden 8, Sanders 5……

General election: Siena College on 9/21: Clinton 53, Bush 36 // Clinton 55, Trump 36.

 

CALIFORNIA – Carly Fiorina is mirroring her national numbers, sitting near the top tier with Trump and Carson in a recent California poll – but no boost from her Senate campaign there in 2010. 

Field Research on 10/8: Trump 17, Carson 15, Fiorina 13, Rubio 10, Bush 8…..

 

NEW JERSEY – Gov. Chris Christie actually once garnered bare majority support last summer in the race for the GOP nomination. As of late June, Christie remained tied for the top spot, although his numbers had plummeted in recent polls.

Fairleigh Dickinson on 6/29/15: Christie 18, Bush 18, Trump 11, Walker 9, Rubio 6, Carson 6….

Fairleigh Dickinson on 4/22/15: Christie 20, Walker 14, Bush 13, Paul 8, Cruz 8…

Fairleigh Dickinson on 8/29/14: Christie 51, Paul 10, Rubio 9, Bush 6…

 

WISCONSIN – Gov. Scott Walker, before calling it quits, was getting support from the Badger State in the race for the nomination. But a general election poll showed he would have lost his home state to Clinton by a wide 10 points.

Marquette University 9/30/15: Trump 20, Carson 16, Rubio 14, Fiorina 11, Bush 7, Cruz 5, Paul 5…. (Walker not included)

Marquette University 8/18/15: Walker 25, Carson 13, Trump 9, Cruz 8, Fiorina 7, Rubio 7, Bush 6…..

Marquette University 4/12/15: Walker 40, Paul 10, Bush 8, Cruz 6, Christie 6, Carson 5, Huckabee 5

Marquette University 10/26/14: Walker 29, Rubio 9, Christie 9, Paul 8…….

Marquette University 5/11/14: Rubio 21, Walker 16, Christie 11, Paul 7, Bush 5…..

General Election: Marquette University 8/18: Clinton 52, Walker 42

 

TEXAS – Sen. Ted Cruz. Everything is bigger in Texas – including Cruz performing slightly better than his national support, which consistently has him in the high single digits.

Texas Lyceum 9/21: Trump 21, Cruz 16, Carson 12, Bush 10, Fiorina 6, Rubio 3, Huckabee 2….

 

ABC’s Paola Chavez contributed to this report.