Clinton Leads '08 Dems; No Bounce for Obama
Early Frontrunner Status Traditionally Based Upon Name Recognition -- But Name Recognition Could Be Important
Bill Clinton started as an unknown, with support in the single digits. His subsequent presidency paved the way for his wife's candidacy now -- just as the first President Bush paved the way for his son.
The proviso in all this: The elections are a long way off, and much can change. That's what campaigns are for.
Democratic Nomination
Clinton's lead for her party's nomination is fueled, in part, by her own natural affinity group, Democratic women: Nearly half support her, as do 30 percent of Democratic men. As noted, she also has 60 percent support from blacks, a core of the party, three times Obama's support in this group.
Nearly half of committed Democrats favor Clinton, compared with three in 10 Democratic-leaning independents. And her support is broadly based ideologically -- virtually identical among moderate and liberal Democrats, and better still among (much less numerous) conservative Democrats.
The ABC News/Washington Post survey tested all commonly mentioned possible Democratic contenders -- a dozen in all -- which makes Clinton's 41 percent support particularly impressive.
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Democratic Primary Preference | ||||||
| Clinton | Obama | Edwards | ||||
| All Leaned Democrats | 41% | 17% | 11% | |||
| Mainline Democrats | 47 | 15 | 10 | |||
| Dem.-Leading Independents | 30 | 19 | 14 | |||
| Liberal Democrats | 44 | 19 | 13 | |||
| Moderate Democrats | 42 | 13 | 13 | |||
| Men | 30 | 15 | 14 | |||
| Women | 49 | 18 | 9 | |||
| Whites | 35 | 17 | 15 | |||
| Blacks (combined data from 12/11/06 and 1/19/07 polls) | 60 | 20 | 3 | |||
Republican Nomination
On the Republican side, conventional wisdom suggests Giuliani is insufficiently conservative to survive his primaries, and it's likely many Republicans today are judging him more on his reputation as a strong post-9/11 leader than on his positions on specific issues.
Nonetheless, McCain had his own difficulties with conservatives in 2000, and Giuliani leads McCain among conservative Republicans by 33 to 21 percent. It's among moderates that they're closer, 37-32 percent.
Giuliani and McCain also run about evenly among evangelical white Protestants, a core Republican group with whom McCain's had strained relations.
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2008 Republican Preference (among leaned Republicans) | ||||
| Giuliani | McCain | |||
| Moderate Republicans | 37% | 32% | ||
| Conservative Republicans | 33 | 21 | ||
Most important, though, is Giuliani's advantage among committed Republicans, who, like their Democratic counterparts, are more apt to vote in primaries. Giuliani holds a 10-point advantage over McCain among this group; McCain, by contrast, runs quite competitively among independents who lean Republican. That was the case in 2000; his problem was that, outside of New Hampshire, not enough of them showed up to vote.
