The culture wars are raging. But if we're in the midst of a revolution, it's hardly being televised.
A flurry of state-level activity is dramatically expanding gay marriage in the United States. A court ruling in Iowa and a legislative vote in Vermont made them the third and fourth states to legalize same-sex marriage, and moves are under way for states including New York, Connecticut and New Hampshire to join them soon.
Add to that Obama administration executive orders on stem-cell research and abortion rights, and the last few months have brought victories for social liberals -- and setbacks for social conservatives -- on a scale not seen in decades.
Yet beyond the expected condemnation from conservative leaders, the stunning series of events is notable for how little it's reverberated across the national political landscape.
"It's almost like the silence is deafening," said Tony Fabrizio, a GOP pollster. "This is the first time in probably 15 years that the social right has really no levers of power, and they are watching their agenda get rolled back."
The national agenda is consumed by the economic crisis, with all of its tentacles. Last week, nationwide grassroots protests offered a sharp critique of President Obama -- but the "tea parties" came together around fiscal issues, not social ones.
The religious right, a force powerful enough to dictate policy direction in Congress and the White House as recently as the Terri Schiavo affair, has shown signs of splintering at the national level.
While social conservatives remain a major part of the GOP, they are losing influence inside and outside the party, said Rich Galen, a Republican strategist.
"The social conservatives don't have the sway that they've had before, because they haven't been very successful running the party the last six years," Galen said. "The libertarian/fiscal conservative wing of the party is proving to be in the ascendancy."
On one level, the relative quiet shouldn't be surprising. The gay-marriage expansions have been happening at the state level, with no direct involvement by Democratic congressional leaders or Obama.
In the wake of the activity in Iowa and Vermont, a coalition called the National Organization for Marriage did launch a TV advertising campaign in targeted states, designed to warn religious voters about the potential impact of gay marriage on their lives.
"They want to bring the issue into my life," says one actor in the ad. "My freedom will be taken away," says another.
Maggie Gallagher, the organization's president and a conservative commentator, said there's no shortage of grassroots conservative anger over the recent moves expanding gay marriage.
That outrage may not be getting much national press attention, but it remains a potent political force, she said.
"It's manufactured moment, this idea that people are ready to give up on the gay-marriage fight," Gallagher said. "In Connecticut, in New Hampshire, in Iowa, the legislators are being flooded with phone calls on this issue. People are not happy with gay marriage."
Gallagher noted that voters continue to support gay-marriage bans, as they did in California last year.