The Note: History Will Judge

— -- WASHINGTON, Sep. 28

NEWS SUMMARY
Congressman Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) is sort of like Congressman Mike Pence (R-Indiana), only with courage.

(That's a joke intended largely for the two Congressman and their press secretaries.)

We refer you to the Honorable Mr. Flake's Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, in which the self-term-limited Member (no Nethercuttian reversal here) decries his party's inability to limit deficit-inducing spending.

One of Flake's subsidiary points is key: that his party is going to have to learn to be less reliant on spending without much of a threat of being punished at the ballot box in 2006.

Why is the threat virtually non-existent?

Flake writes, with an antiseptic non-fervor that nonetheless reveals the dirty little non-secret that explains why the Republicans Party is not panicking in the face of hurricanes-gas prices-Iraq: ". . . [E]ndemic Democratic ineptitude makes Republicans more attractive when graded on a curve."

It ain't a new point, we concede, but it nicely delineates the environment into which the President is about to launch a new Supreme Court nominee through the eye of the Democrat-media-Collins-Dobson needle.

Simply put: Nothing the Democratic Party is doing is putting fear into the hearts of the Republican Party.

As for the identity of Mr. Bush's pick, we can't tell you exactly whom he will choose. But we have devised a matrix of questions that will lead all Note readers inexorably to the right answer.

If you put these statements in order from "most on the President's mind" to "least on the President's mind," you will know his choice:

A. "Harriet Miers is Al Gonzales in a skirt with size six shoes and without the vexing paper trail."

B. "Bushie, I promise, my third pick will be a woman."

C. "I think the 90% of the base would like to see a little Sister Soulja'ing of the other 10% of the base."

D. "Steve Schmidt can sell anything." (Note to Senator Alexander: read that as "almost anything," and remember that Steve was young and inexperienced then.)

E. "She was on WHICH side of the Michigan affirmative action case???!!??"

F. "Are we SURE that Portugual is an Hispanic country?"

G. "I think old Harry could stand a stick in the eye at this point."

H. "So John Lewis, Paul Wolfowitz, and Clarence Thomas will go on 'The Daily Show' together defending him?"

I. "I understand: under no circumstances can I call her 'Owenie' or 'Sissy' at the announcement."

J. "The white-Catholic-male-from-New-Jersey quota is not quite yet filled, right?"

With SCOTUS planning percolating in the background, in the Rose Garden at 10:20 am ET, President Bush will make a statement about the war on terror. The President's update on the war on terror will follow his White House briefing by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld as well as Gens. Myers, Abizaid, and Casey.

Two conservative national security experts -- retired Lt. Gen. William Odom and Cato's Christopher Prebble -- will voice their support for congressional legislation calling on the President to announce a plan for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq (House Joint Resolution 55) at a 10:30 am ET news conference on the Cannon Terrace.

Attorney General Alberto Gonzales delivers remarks at the Congressional Hispanic Leadership Institute's Hispanic Heritage Month Gala at 8:00 pm ET in the Capitol Hilton's East Ballroom.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman will address the Republican National Hispanic Assembly this afternoon at a closed press reception.

Governors Blanco of Louisiana, Barbour of Mississippi, and Riley of Alabama are scheduled give testimony to the Senate Finance Committee on the Gulf Coast's community rebuilding needs and on the effectiveness of past proposals. Gov. Blanco will appear in person and have her costly request list at the ready. Govs. Barbour and Riley will appear via videoconference.

House Democratic leaders and former 9/11 Commissioner Tim Roemer will talk with reporters at 10:00 am ET outside of Cannon 345 to discuss what they see as the need for an independent commission to investigate the response to Hurricane Katrina as well as to discuss the need for a comprehensive national energy strategy.

Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will introduce legislation intended to reduce medical errors and malpractice costs at 11:00 am ET in Dirksen 124. Clinton will also attend a 9:30 am ET hearing of the Environment and Public Works Committee to examine the role of science in environmental policy-making in Dirksen 406. At 7:30 pm ET, she attends the Global Business Council on HIV/AIDS Annual Awards for Business Excellence Gala at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) will hold a pen and pad briefing at 11:30 am ET in the Senate Press Gallery to discuss newly-introduced charitable giving legislation.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will discuss details of his gas price rebate plan at 1:00 pm ET at St. Vincent Hospital in Santa Fe, NM.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a 6:15 pm ET town hall meeting at Sun Microsystems in Menlo Park, CA. Earlier in the day, at 2:00 pm ET, he will attend funeral services for California Highway Patrol Officer David Romero. The Governor will also join his wife, Maria Shriver, at the "Latinas: The Spirit of California" exhibit at the California Museum for History, Women, and the Arts.

In Virginia, Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine will spend much of his day campaigning with his current (and popular) boss Gov. Mark Warner. The Democratic duo is expected to attend some pre-K classes and an evening fundraiser.

Mary Matalin speaks at a "young professionals" fundraising event for Jerry Kilgore, the Republican candidate for governor of Virginia, on the rooftop of Jones Day at 7:15 pm ET in Washington, DC.

Hurricanes: Bush strategy/response:
USA Today's Susan Page takes a historical perspective in assessing how the contours of President Bush's agenda have been affected by Katrina and Rita, wondering if "Franklin Delano Bush" can summon the same support for ambitious plans to rebuild the Gulf Coast that he received after 9/11. LINK

"The most devastating natural disaster in U.S. history has opened a third, distinct phase of Bush's presidency. This turn is more perilous than the pivot he made to acclaim in his first term, though. Democrats have their own ideas about hurricane relief. And Bush's big-spending, big-government proposals have split the Republican loyalists on whom he has relied."

The New York Times' Elisabeth Bumiller on White House energy conservation efforts: LINK

In Timeswoman Anne Kornblut's accounting of the First Lady's day in Biloxi, the creator and executive producer of "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" has the most engaging kicker quote we've seen in a long time. LINK

Secretary Norton sat down with the New York Times for a (cautious) interview in which she indicated her openness to expanding energy exploration on public lands to help ease the country's need for additional sources of energy. LINK

The Washington Post ed board on Bush's "Jimmy Carter moment." LINK

Hurricanes: Big Casino budget politics:
The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman has Sens. Coburn and Obama castigating the government for spending taxpayer money on "no-bid contracts and sweetheart deals for cruise lines." LINK

The Wall Street Journal's Schroeder and Mullins do the paper's latest round-up of special interest attempts from sea to shining sea to attach their own provisions to hurricane-relief trains that are leaving the station. That's on A4 of the Dow Jones flagship product.

The Washington Post's Jeffrey Birnbaum covers similar ground with every lobbyist in town using Katrina as their reasoning to push for their clients' pet projects. LINK

Republicans continue to look at places to cut spending to pay for Hurricane Katrina, reports Roll Call. A meeting between Majority Whip Roy Blount (R-MO) and members of the Republican Study Committee sought to soothe intraparty tensions that arose last week. On the table now: cuts to Medicaid, food stamps, welfare reform, and discretionary spending.

Hurricanes: Congress reacts:Will they or won't they? House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said the prospect of Democrats joining the Republican-led Hurricane Katrina hearings was "under discussion". Not so, says a spokeswoman for Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who referred to the committee as a "sham". LINK

USA Today's editorial board says an independent panel should look at the failures of the Katrina response, saying yesterday's congressional hearings provided little of what the country needed: "Impartial facts about what happened and recommendations to ensure it doesn't happen again." LINK

And/but Rep. Tom Davis provides an opposing view, saying that a thorough review is the job of Congress. LINK

Hurricanes: blame game:
Spencer Hsu handles Brownie's testimony for the Washington Post. LINK

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank pokes fun at FEMA Director Mike Brown's "command of facts" in his Washington Sketch. LINK

"Brownie Gets Baked by Congress" according to the New York Post. LINK

The Boston Globe: LINK

"In interviews, Guard commanders and state and local officials in Louisiana said the Guard performed well under the circumstances. But they say it was crippled in the early days by a severe shortage of troops that they blame in part on the deployment to Iraq of 3,200 Louisiana guardsmen. While the Pentagon disputes that Iraq was a factor, those on the ground say the war has clearly strained a force intended to be the nation's bulwark against natural disasters and terrorist attacks," reports the New York Times. LINK

Hurricanes: politics:
When is it too soon to start shilling? Roll Call's Newmyer reports Gulf Coast politicians seeking reelection are split. Reps. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) and Chip Pickering (R-MS) will be holding events in Washington, and would-be donors to the campaign of Rep. Jim McCrery (R-LA) can indulge in a goat-butter massage during a fundraising trip to the Napa Valley. But Rep. Gene Taylor (D-LA), says it's inappropriate to ask for cash when so many people are in need.

The O'Connor seat:
In a must-read look at the possible filibuster showdown over the O'Connor replacement, the Washington Post's Dan Balz and Amy Goldstein have DNC Chairman Howard Dean vowing to wage a "fight to the death" if President Bush puts forward an "unqualified nominee." He cited appellate court judges Priscilla Owen and Janice Rogers Brown as two who would likely trigger a filibuster from Democrats. A spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid declined to issue a blanket filibuster threat but joined Dean in saying that a nominee judged more conservative than Roberts will face vigorous opposition. LINK

"Dean said a straight party-line vote would show Democratic unity but would not be sufficient to block a nominee. 'That's not a fight to the death,' he said. 'A fight to the death is a filibuster, which is the only way we can reject an unqualified nominee -- because the Republicans don't seem to have any qualms about putting unqualified people in all manner of positions all over the government.'"

We wonder: will Democrats call for a filibuster right away, or hold their fire tactically?

As John Roberts' confirmation nears, the AP writes that Republican Senators are publicly pushing Democrats for a fair confirmation process for President Bush's next nominee. LINK

Another AP story this cycle gives big play to Harriet Miers. LINK

(Up the flagpole, disinformation, or neither? You make the call.)

The Washington Times reports that congressional Republicans expect Bush to announce the next Supreme Court nominee Friday. LINK

In his recap of the Supreme Court's "long conference," the Washington Post's Charles Lane has election law expert Rick Hansen saying that O'Connor's replacement could reverse part of the Court's 5 to 4 vote in 2003 upholding McCain-Feingold. LINK

John Roberts for Chief Justice:
A New York Times correction with a byline. Adam Liptak corrects the record that the unsigned memo he attributed to John Roberts in an article yesterday was not written by John Roberts. LINK

The Washington Post wants to know: what is a screenplay by Congressman Dana Rohrabacher doing in the John Roberts files? LINK

Frist and HCA:
Roll Call reports that Senate Republicans, even those with an eye on 2008, rallied around Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and his description of the sale of his HCA, Inc. stock as both "legal and proper". Roll Call has Sen John McCain (R-AZ) dishing some advice based on his experience with the "Keating Five": "Get it out and answer all the questions."

Keying off of critical comment from someone at the American Conservative Union, the Washington Times' Ralph Z. Hallow reports that Frist's stock sale has "further" undermined his credibility as Majority Leader and as a presidential contender among Republicans.LINK

"'The man should be afforded the presumption of innocence, but the SEC does not launch an investigation willy-nilly, particularly against a member of the United States Senate,' said J. William Lauderback, executive vice president of the American Conservative Union. 'They're not going to do that in a casual fashion.'"

"'It's the timing that is troubling,' Mr. Lauderback said. 'The stock price dropped significantly shortly after the sale of Senator Frist's stock. His brother is the chief executive officer of HCA, and his family founded the company. It just doesn't look good.'"

The story Notes that Frist was "viewed favorably by many social conservatives until earlier this year, when he reneged on his support for President Bush's restrictions on federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research."

The Hill has Frist's press secretary saying that his comments to his Senate colleagues were "much more personal" than his public statement, and Noting that Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Lamar Alexander (R-TN) also testified on Frist's behalf. LINK

Bloomberg News has Donald Langevoort, a former SEC lawyer who is now a law professor at Georgetown University, saying that a formal inquiry could mean demands from the SEC staff for phone records, e-mails, witness testimony, and bank records. LINK

Under a "Senators' Blind Trusts Aren't So Blind" header, Bloomberg's Litvan and Donmoyer have Kenneth Gross, an ethics lawyer who advises lawmakers from both parties, calling the trusts that Senators use "cosmetic only." LINK

There are also developments with regards to Sen. Jon Corzine (NJ), a Democrat running for governor of New Jersey.

Per Bloomberg's Litvan and Donmoyer, Corzine also has a blind trust though one that wasn't approved by the Senate ethics committee. "Corzine made money from his blind trust last year by betting that shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., where he was a co-chairman before joining the Senate in 2001, would decline."

Corzine's office released this statement yesterday: "In response to pres inquiries today, Sen. Corzine directed the trustees of his blind trust to immediately complete the steady divesture of shares of Goldman Sachs from his investment portfolio. Upon receiving these instructions, the trustees informed Senator Corzine that he is, in fact, already completely divested of his holding in Goldman Sachs.''

Iron Triangle:
Karen "Hughes faced a town hall meeting of 500 highly educated Saudi women who turned the tables on America's recently appointed public diplomacy czar. Hughes wanted to talk about America's image in the Arab world; the woman hammered her instead with question after question about the negative portrayal of Saudis in the U.S. media," reports ABC's Jonathan Karl. LINK

And things didn't get any easier for Ms. Hughes in Turkey today. Hughes "faced a barrage of criticism over the Iraq war during a roundtable with Turkish women today," reports Karl.

The New York Times Weisman's account of a "taken aback" Karen Hughes: LINK

The Washington Post's Glen Kessler has Hughes' going "significantly further" than Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in challenging Saudi Arabia to allow women to drive. LINK

Politics of the environment:
Bloomberg News reports that Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are beginning to sound like the Sierra Club, warning US clients for the first time that climate change poses financial risks. LINK

The economy:
The Bush economy is clearly working for some people. . . The Washington Post's Reliable Source reports that Bob Shrum and his wife, Marylouise Oates, sold their Massachusetts Avenue Heights home in May to intelligence czar John Negroponte for $2.2 million. Shrum and his wife paid $1.2 million for the four-bedroom home when they bought it in December 2003. LINK

Campaign finance:
Linda Greenhouse of the New York Times leads the paper with her look at the Supreme Court's decision to grant cert to a Vermont campaign finance case that may give the justices an opportunity to revisit Buckley v. Valeo. LINK

2008:
Rep. Tom Tancredo, (R-CO) has accused Gov. Bill Richardson of misusing emergency state grants money that were supposed to go to protecting the U.S.-Mexico border. LINK

2008: Republicans:
The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes is worried about 2008. He leads thusly:

"The presidential election of 2008 is a long way off, but Republicans better start worrying about it now. The 2006 midterm election? Republicans are likely to hold onto the Senate and House. But 2008 is another story. In the midst of a Republican era, Democrats stand a good chance of taking the White House then. Even Senator Hillary Clinton of New York--or perhaps I should say especially Hillary Clinton--has realistic prospects of winning." LINK

A must-read, at least for those in the 2008 GOP field, who Barnes suggests are weak, absent Cheney/Rice/John Ellis Bush.

Gov. Mike Huckabee will still be employed after 2006 -- Huckabee will be the director of a new public policy center at his alma mater, Ouachita Baptist University. LINK

Cindy Sheehan called Sen. John McCain a "warmonger," after her meeting with him yesterday. LINK

Sens. George Allen (R-VA) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) squared off on MSNBC's "Hardball" on Tuesday.

Chris Matthews, a longtime Iraq war opponent*, told Durbin that at least Allen's party had a position on the war, prompting Durbin to shake his head in disgust when he thought he was off camera.

Durbin would not directly answer Matthews' "yes or no" question about whether the war in Iraq was a mistake.

After Durbin criticized the lack of allies and the lack of a plan to secure the peace, Allen said: "We're not on the side of terrorists who are blowing up" shopping malls and schools.

Allen's insinuation that the Democrats were on the side of the terrorists prompted Durbin to say, "Neither are we! Neither are we!" about the Democrats, as the segment ended.

Also appearing on "Hardball" Tuesday was Newsweek's Howard Fineman who gushed over another 2008 presidential hopeful: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Fineman described McCain as "perfect" on Iraq: He wants more troops. And he meets with Cindy Sheehan. "Perfect," Fineman gushed.

*Based on a 2003 conversation with him in the dairy aisle of the Chevy Chase Safeway.

2008: Democrats:
Dick Morris thinks Sen. Hillary Clinton's decision to hew a hawkish line on Iraq will make her vulnerable on the left. LINK

". . . politics abhors a vacuum. One can easily see a latter-day McCarthy challenging Hillary for the Democratic nomination and upending her in the early going. Who will it be? Will Dean step into the space, as he did in 2004? Or Al Gore? Or Joe Biden? Or some certifiably liberal senator? Or will someone from the movement itself -- a Sheehan -- come forth."

Political reporter and movie critic Ben Smith shares his thoughts on his early look at the Kerry campaign documentary, "Inside the Bubble," in this week's New York Observer. He declares Jim Loftus the star of the film and gets filmmaker Rosenbaum to cast the film as an indictment on the Democratic Party in general more so than Kerry specifically. LINK

Check back here tomorrow for The Note's own review of this work.

2005:
Fernando Ferrer scored the wood on both New York tabloids this morning in exactly the way the Bloomberg campaign hoped he would.

The New York Post tags Democratic mayoral challenger Ferrer with a dunce cap for inaccurately claiming on his Web site's blog that he attended New York public schools. LINK

Political consultant Hank Sheinkopf weighs in with this: "Every time something like this happens, it reduces his credibility . . . He's got a flip-flop history -- on abortion, the death penalty, the Diallo case and now education. Every time he does this, it helps Bloomberg."

The paper's editorial board laments "Ferrer's Foolish Fib." LINK

The New York Daily News on the flap: LINK

The New York Times' Pat Healy takes a less breathless approach and includes this analysis of the posting: "The prose has a quality that could be confused with Mr. Ferrer's speaking style, but in whole it reads like a news release." LINK

The Ferrer campaign put out Democratic Reps. Nadler and Meeks to accuse Bloomberg supporter Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) of using some coded racially divisive language when talking about the Dinkins era on Staten Island. The New York Times' Diane Cardwell and Pat Healy explore how race will likely be the dominant undercurrent throughout the entire campaign. LINK

The New York Observer Ben Smith also wisely Notes that race is not going away in New York City mayoral politics and it is one of the several factors Smith puts forward to explain how Michael Bloomberg may lose. LINK

The latest Marist poll has Mayor Michael Bloomberg up 15 points on Ferrer. The mayor's approval rating also jumped to 64 percent, up from 53 percent in August. LINK

The New York Times gives some play to the New York Democratic Party's character in a George W. Bush mask trailing Mayor Bloomberg to his public appearances. LINK

The top line numbers from Quinnipiac University's latest Garden State gubernatorial race poll: "Republican Douglas Forrester has narrowed the gap with Democratic U. S. Sen. Jon Corzine in the race for Governor of New Jersey and now trails 48 to 44 percent among likely voters. . . Eight percent are undecided. This compares to a 50 to 40 percent Corzine lead among likely voters in an August 10 poll."

Sen. Corzine is no longer a shareholder in Goldman Sachs, reports the New York Times. LINK

The New York Observer's Jess Bruder looks at Corzine's candidacy through the "millionaire candidate" lens. LINK

2006:
"Friends for Harry Reid" will unveil a new online campaign headquarters today, GiveEmHellHarry.com, with the stated purpose of providing Americans with "the tools to make an impact on the fight for control of the US Senate." The new Web site will be accompanied by billboards in three red places that the Dems would like to turn blue: Albuquerque, NM, Phoenix, AZ, and Helena, MT. LINK

Bay State gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick (D) will lay out his healthcare program for voters today which would include raising taxes on cigarettes and increasing taxes on employers that don't offer healthcare. LINK

The Houston Chronicle reports Texas Gov. Rick Perry proposes a constitutional amendment against same-sex marriages, but one GOP group stands firmly against it. LINK

Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN), is gunning to be the new majority whip, reports The Hill. Sen. Alexander is quietly but actively campaigning, despite the fact that many of his colleagues have already committed to voting for Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA). Alexander says he's discussed his ambitions with Santorum, who is battling to return to the Senate in 2006. "We want him back. And then we can decide -- our colleagues can decide -- which one would make the best whip." LINK

Senator Elizabeth Dole, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has been meeting one-on-one with her fellow Republicans, asking them to dig into their own pockets to support the 2006 races. The Hill reports that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has raised $2.4 million more than the NSRC. Note this line: "'I'm telling them we have to give from our own checkbooks,' said Dole, who then quickly added: 'Don't make that the focus of your story,' underscoring how sensitive an operation it is to ask senators for tens of thousands of dollars." LINK

The Schwarzenegger Era:
We are only including this link to the Los Angeles Times story about Maria Shriver's new (Democrat) chief of staff because of his quote about his mother. LINK

House of Labor:
The Los Angeles Times' Jordan Rau takes a fair-minded view of the vast power of the California Teachers Association that puts its political power in neat context. LINK

New York Times labor guru Steven Greenhouse reports from St. Louis on the Change to Win Federation's inaugural gathering where their primary goal of organizing was the dominant theme. LINK

"They mentioned Home Depot, Federal Express and Wal-Mart as possible targets for unionization drives," reports Greenhouse.

Politics:
Stephanie Saul and Robert Pear of the New York Times write up an interview with former FDA Commissioner Crawford's brother-in-law which indicates an incomplete financial disclosure could be the cause for his quick and mysterious departure from the FDA. LINK

The Boston Globe reports Gov. Romney and Sen. Ted Kennedy came together to meet with Mike Leavitt in a closed door meeting on Massachusetts Medicare needs. LINK

A tax incentive employed by the state of Ohio heads to the Supreme Court for review. The New York Times' Linda Greenhouse has the details. LINK

Sen. John Cornyn tells the Washington Times that the high percentage of illegal aliens in the U.S. shows that the immigration system is broken. LINK

A staffing Note for you:

DNC Finance Director Lindsay Lewis announced to his staff yesterday that he will be leaving the DNC at the end of the year. Lindsay previously worked as Finance Director for Governor Dean's presidential campaign in New York and for Democracy for America.

"Governor Dean is grateful to Lindsay for his hard work, dedication and loyalty. We're sorry to see him leave, but thankful to Lindsay for joining the cause to oversee the transition of the new DNC finance team over the past several months," said DNC Communications Director Karen Finney.

Brookings is ending its research into welfare reform and is opening a center on broader children and family issues, the Washington Post's Amy Goldstein reports. LINK