ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 24, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

39 days until Election Day6 days until the first presidential debate11 days until the vice presidential debate14 days until the second presidential debate19 days until the third presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

Dan Balz (of the Washington Post ) says both campaigns "agree that Iraq — what happens there and how voters view the candidates on the issue — is likely to determine the outcome of the election." LINK

The Note (of the Walt Disney Co.) says the centerpiece event of the day is John Kerry's 10:00 am ET speech in Philadelphia attempting to de-couple Iraq from the GWOT — followed by the Bush-Cheney attempts to simultaneously glue them back together and attack Kerry for his de-coupling efforts.

Scot Lehigh (of the Boston Globe ) says "if Kerry rebounds to win the presidency, this period will be seen as the public turning point in the campaign." LINK

Dana Milbank (of the Washington Post and possessed of great intellectual courage and clarity) says "President Bush and leading Republicans are increasingly charging that Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry and others in his party are giving comfort to terrorists and undermining the war in Iraq — a line of attack that tests the conventional bounds of political rhetoric." LINK

The Columbus Dispatch (of a battleground state) says John Kerry told the paper yesterday that he "declined to portray the three presidential debates over the next 17 days as 'make or break' for his candidacy." LINK

Iyad Allawi (of Iraq by way of his London flat and the CIA) says (implicitly) "replace Cheney on the ticket with me!!"

The Note (of dwindling ideas for leads!) also says — don't lose sight of the debate about debates — it's a big day for that!!!

Bill Nichols (of USA Today ) says the remaining battleground states tilt Bush but not decisively so. LINK

The Cleveland Plain Dealer (of a battleground state) says that we all better brace ourselves for casting and counting controversies galore with this latest: "More than 1,000 voter registration forms and absentee ballot requests may be fraudulent in Lake and Summit counties, where investigations of irregularities are broadening." (The NAACP's National Voter Fund and America Coming Together are the groups at the center of the investigation.)LINK

(All of the above: SERIOUS must-reads.)

President Bush swears in Porter Goss, the new Director of Central Intelligence, at the White House at 9:05 am ET.

At 10:45 am ET, House Speaker Dennis Hastert unveils the House Republican plan to reform the nation's intelligence.

Bush does education in Janesville, WI at 1:35 pm ET and holds a rally in Racine, WI at 5:05 pm ET.

In 2000, Bush lost Wisconsin by fewer than 6,000 votes. This year, both sides agree: if there is one 2000 Democratic state that is most likely to be picked off by the President, this is it.

ABC News' David Chalian attributes Bush's current strength in Wisconsin to an economy that was never as bad as some other Midwestern states, Kerry underperforming among African-Americans, and the Milwaukee suburbs seeming to trend towards Bush on cultural issues.

Bush will end the day at his ranch in Texas. He will remain there on Saturday and Sunday for debate prep. The first clash, which will focus on foreign policy, is (sort of) set for Thursday, Sept. 30 in Coral Gables, FL.

At 8:00 am ET, Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi lays a wreath at Arlington National Cemetery. At 8:45 am ET, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld welcomes the Iraqi leader to the Pentagon with an Honor Cordon. Allawi then meets with Rumsfeld and other DOD officials.

Stepping up his attack on Bush's national security record, Sen. John Kerry delivers a speech on "Fighting the War on Terrorism" at Temple University in Philadelphia, PA at 10:00 am ET. The speech is Kerry's latest effort to argue the war in Iraq has been a distraction from the war on terrorism.

Kerry will detail seven principles for keeping Americans safe. Among them are "building 'stronger and smarter' military and intelligence capabilities, denying terrorists the weapons they seek, taking new action to stop terrorist financing and putting an end to terrorist recruitment and asylum around the world," according to USA Today . LINK

Kerry also holds a rally at the University of Pennsylvania at noon ET before heading to his home in Boston, where he will spend Saturday preparing for the presidential debates. On Sunday, he campaigns in Wisconsin and continues to prepare for the debates.

Vice President Cheney speaks at a fundraiser for a Louisiana congressional candidate in Lafayette, LA at 10:00 am ET. He speaks at a campaign rally for himself in Warrenton, MO at 1:30 pm and he delivers remarks in Tulsa, OK at 7:30 pm ET for former Rep. Tom Coburn, a candidate for Senate.

Sen. John Edwards is down in Washington, DC with no public events.

Look for a new DNC independent expenditure ad on Iraq today … .

At 10:00 am ET, several Democratic Senators, including Daschle, Kennedy, Dorgan and Stabenow, will hold a rally calling for drug re-importation. When asked why he opposes re-importation, Bush has cited consumer safety. But a Pfizer executive broke ranks with his company and with the pharmaceutical industry yesterday, saying that concerns about the safety of re-importation are overstated.

At 10:30 am ET, Ralph Nader supporters hold a demonstration calling for Nader to be included in the presidential debates outside of the Commission on Presidential Debates offices at 1200 New Hampshire Ave., NW, in Washington, DC. The Commission is expected to decide on Friday which candidates meet their standards for inclusion. Nader will not meet the threshold.

Also on Friday, the Nader campaign will file an appeal hoping that the U.S. Supreme Court overturns a decision by the Oregon Supreme Court to remove his name from the ballot due to flawed petitions and concerns about fraud.

Nader will be Sam Donaldson's guest on ABC News Now's "Politics Live" at 1:30 pm ET.

The Christian Coalition's "Road to Victory 2004: God Bless America-One Nation Under God" conference continues for the second of three days at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, DC. Watch for big names at tonight's gala.

On "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," a debate preview with Stuart Stevens and Rep. Rahm Emanuel.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry: the politics of Iraq:

Key sections of Dan Balz's magic opus:

"'Ten days ago, we were at a huge fork in the road,' said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. 'This could have become 1988 [when Bush's father took control over Michael S. Dukakis shortly after Labor Day] and was a real moment of danger for the Kerry campaign. In a lot of ways, he's survived it and we're back to a very competitive race again.'" LINK

"Just how competitive is an open question, for while Kerry may have put himself in a stronger position to litigate Iraq with Bush in their upcoming debates, he carries scars from months of attacks that may be difficult to overcome, given the limited amount of time left. Bush's advisers argue that the president enjoys a small, but solid, lead and that negative impressions of Kerry complicate his hopes of turning the race decisively in his direction. Democrats outside the Kerry campaign agree that the challenger still has considerable work to do."

"Individual national polls have painted a confusing — even conflicting — portrait of the race, with some polls showing Bush's lead in double digits and others showing the race tied. Taken together, they suggest that the race has settled into a track with Bush enjoying a lead of three to five percentage points — just at the edge of the polls' margins of error — and that Kerry remains weakened from months of attacks by the Bush campaign and its allies."

"Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducts the NBC- Wall Street Journal poll with Democrat Peter Hart, said two things are notable. One is that Bush has steadily inched up in the polls over the past few months. The other is that it might not take much for the race to shift back. 'I'd rather be ahead by three to five points than behind, but nobody should believe that three to five points is a margin that could not change.'"