ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

ByABC News
September 17, 2004, 9:48 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 17, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

46 days until Election Day13 days until the first proposed presidential debate18 days until the proposed vice presidential debate21 days until the second proposed presidential debate26 days until the third proposed presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

The best example of how degrading it can be to be a political reporter: USA Today 's classy Susan Page forced to write up the Gallup poll/joke "showing" the president with a mythical 13-point lead for the front page of her paper thus suggesting Gallup's 2000 track record of wild swings might be replicated this cycle.

(Question it gives rise to: What's the real margin? A. 5-6 points, with Bush holding small- to medium-sized (surmountable) leads in most of the important battlegrounds.)

The best political theater of the day: The Florida Supreme Court hearing arguments about whether Ralph Nader will be on the November ballot.

(Question it gives rise to: How many of the Florida high court's justices can you (still) name? A. Chief Justice Barbara J. Pariente, Justice Charles T. Wells, Justice Harry Lee Anstead, Justice R. Fred Lewis, Justice Peggy A. Quince, Justice Raoul G. Cantero, III (new since 2000), and Justice Kenneth B. Bell (new since 2000).)

The best analytical newspaper story of the day telegraphing where the Kerry strategy is going:Ron Brownstein's must-read Los Angeles Times story on how the Democrat plans to step up the arguments that the Iraq war is a failure and has hurt the war on terror. LINK

(Question it gives rise to: Can Kerry do this with credibility with voters and the media, given his checkered rhetorical past on the issue generally? A. Only time will tell, but it would be quite a feat.)

The best story for insiders: Mark Leibovich and Jim VandeHei on the front page of the Washington Post on the intra-campaign power struggles of Kerry World even though it adds only the slimmest of details to the comparable stories that have come before it elsewhere.

(Question it gives rise to: Has Paul Begala ever seen Mary Beth Cahill with chicken salad dripping from her chin? A. Probably not, or that piece of color would have made it into the story.)

The best tactical Bush campaign information semi-hidden in a newspaper story: This, from Dana Priest and Mr. VandeHei, in their Washington Post opus: "The White House . . . had planned a vigorous election-season defense of its Iraq strategy next week . . . Administration officials plan to use next week's U.S. visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi as the centerpiece of an effort to showcase progress toward democracy."

(Question it gives rise to: Will this defense/showcasing go as well if the violence and death in Iraq next week matches what it has been like this week? A. Not so much.)

The best political-reporting-masquerading-as-national-security-reporting in a newspaper story:Tie: Eric Schmitt in the New York Times on the looming Army Reserve personnel shortage and Doug Jehl (also in the New York Times and on a roll!!) on the upcoming report on the weapons inspection report out of Iraq.

(Question it gives rise to: Has the relentless Bush-Cheney assault on Kerry's foreign policy credentials and judgment made him unable to take advantage of this stuff? A. Only time will tell, but it would be quite a feat.)

The best color about alleged CBS News source Bill Burkett (as profiled by the Washington Post 's Sylvia Moreno):Tie: "He and his wife are regulars at the Whistle Stop Cafe, ordering bacon cheeseburgers with jalapenos and fries or the pork chop special on Mondays" and "Burkett has frequently posted notes to an Internet message group for Texas Democrats, urging other members to work harder to defeat Bush in the election, but also lambasting Democratic nominee John F. Kerry for 'one of the worst run campaigns I've seen in my lifetime .Many of us have risked everything on this election,' Burkett said in a message posted on Aug. 31. 'The disappointment is deep and difficult to manage. But we fight on, in spite of incompetence at the top.'")

(Question it gives rise to: Is there ANYTHING that would cause the cast and crew of "Fox and Friends" to check the accuracy of something on Drudge before blurting it out on the air? A. Apparently not.)

The best debate-about-debates story by a former ABC News Political Unit intern: Jonathan Greenberger's piece on the Commission on Presidential Debates continued Maytag repairperson status, in the Washington University in St. Louis' Student Life. LINK

(Question it gives rise to: Will there be a debate deal announced today? A. In our heads, we say "yes"; in our hearts, we say "no" a hedge more masterful than even Mitch Bainwol could come up with!!)

At 8:00 am ET, the Florida Supreme Court was hearing oral arguments and by all accounts will declare their answer as to whether or not Ralph Nader should be on the ballot in the Sunshine State today given that overseas ballots must be mailed by tomorrow. (Yesterday, John McCain said Nader should be allowed on the ballot: LINK)

A little north of there, President Bush comes to North Carolina, a former quasi-battleground state in which the Kerry campaign is no longer running ads, to hold a 3:45 pm ET "Focus on Women's Issues" event in Charlotte. The event comes as President Bush is doing better than expected among women in recent polls and as strategists in both parties say, as the Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny writes, "there are a growing number of suburban, independent-minded voters who believe Bush would do a better job securing America."

Bush also has two RNC fundraisers today: one that is open press in Washington (12:45 pm ET) and one that is closed in Charlotte (5:50 pm ET).

Senator John Kerry today will highlight Vice President Cheney's connections with a "golden parachute" from Halliburton in an ad and during Kerry's 11:00 am ET Albuquerque town hall. Kerry will, according to the campaign's preview, unveil "new reforms" that will end the "Era of Halliburton" of "rewarding special interests and big contributors with no bid contracts and special deals."

(And the same preview borrows from a certain primetime show: "As President, John Kerry will make sure that we tell companies that cheat the U.S. military and American taxpayers: 'You're fired.'")

Kerry later flies to the city of his birth, Aurora, CO, for a 5:25 pm ET town hall on health care the day after his campaign released the fourth health care ad from the campaigns and parties in the last week.

Elsewhere:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the regional and state unemployment figures for August at 10:00 am ET: LINK.

Elizabeth Edwards is also in North Carolina (Winston-Salem and Greenville).

Vice President Cheney has two events in Oregon.

Laura Bush is in Charleston, WV; Columbia, SC; and East Stroudsburg, PA.

This Sunday on "This Week," George Stephanopoulos interviews Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi from London, and Sens. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Richard Lugar (R-IN) will talk politics and Iraq.

This weekend, President Bush heads to Maine for a down day before pulling out his trump card: yet another visit to Florida (and Alabama) to look at Hurricane damage.

On Saturday, Senator Kerry does a (closed press!) taping of "Dr. Phil" in Boston, followed by a DNC fundraiser at the Hynes Veterans Memorial Convention Center. He's down in Boston on Sunday until traveling to New York Sunday night.

On Monday, both campaigns find themselves in New York City for fundraisers and mainstream media interviews (Kerry appears on "The Late Show" with David Letterman and "Regis and Kelly," which President Bush will appear on Wednesday.). This will not be a preview of the Al Smith dinner, however, which will not feature either candidate this year: LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

The Washington Post 's Dana Priest and Jim VandeHei report on Kerry's criticism of Bush's Iraq policy yesterday with a focus on the new National Intelligence Estimate. "The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, representing the consensus view of the U.S. intelligence community and written in July, said Iraq's prospects for stability and self-governance over the next 18 months were, at best, 'tenuous,' according to U.S. government officials who have read it." President Bush did not talk about the intelligence estimate on the stump Thursday in Minnesota. LINK

The back-and-forth each day seems to kick things up a notch almost every news cycle. Yesterday's was complete with a "fantasy world of spin" and the standard Bush-Cheney mantra that Senator Kerry is an indecisive flip-flopper in every possible way. Pat Healy of the Boston Globe fills us in on the details. LINK

Healy nugget of the day: "Sasso sits in Kerry's cabin more than any other aide and is known among a few staff members on the plane as 'the quarterback.'"

AP's Tom Raum wraps Bush and Kerry sniping over Iraq yesterday. LINK

Scot Lehigh of the Boston Globe explains today in his column how President Bush has had a better few weeks as he actively shapes public opinion while Senator Kerry does not. LINK

An interesting Lehigh observation reveals what Democrats see as the president's secret weapon: "He is dismayingly willing to say things that are either blatantly false or clearly designed to create a misleading impression."

AP's Nedra Pickler on Kerry's criticism of Bush yesterday. LINK

Neither Bush nor Kerry were invited to this year's Al Smith dinner because "issues in this year's campaign could provoke divisiveness and disagreement and could detract from" the spirit of the dinner, Archdiocese spokesman Joseph Zwilling tells the Associated Press. LINK

In announcing that neither presidential candidate will be invited to attend the Al Smith dinner this year, the usually unflappable Zwilling doesn't explain why this year's presidential election could "provoke divisiveness and disagreement" and how that differs from the issues in 2000. LINK

Mahoney and Standora of the Daily News report who's not coming to the Al Smith dinner, "New York's marquee political event." Given the choice between a Methodist and a pro-choice Catholic, Edward Cardinal Egan has decided to "snub" both. LINK

AP's Jennifer Loven highlights President Bush's claim yesterday that Kerry wants to "expand government" in virtually every domestic policy and reports that the Bush campaign has increased its ad buys in Minnesota, forcing the Kerry campaign to do the same. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Washington Wire reports, among other items, that First Lady Laura Bush will campaign solo through the election.

Plus: "While Democrats seize on polling signs that Republicans' post-convention gains are waning, Republicans say Bush continues to hold a narrow lead nationally as well as in battleground states overall. As Kerry winnows his target-state list, he struggles even in those Gore won."

If you're looking for a free link to Ryan Lizza's latest piece (on Bush speak and Democratic frustration), look no further. LINK

The Los Angeles Times takes a look at the battle for military votes. LINK

"Tight restrictions on seeking the votes of active-duty military personnel, along with taboos in the military culture against the open expression of political views, make it tough for candidates to target military voters and make it tough for pollsters to figure them out."

The Wall Street Journal 's Daniel Henninger explores the Lehigh Valley's significance in this year's presidential race.

In the Financial Times, U.S. managing editor Lionel Barber writes that "Republicans are outsmarting the Democrats in dirty politics" with a rapid-response machine that puts both Dems and the press on the defensive instead of focusing on the issues. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: polls:

Al Hunt turns a skeptical eye toward poll numbers and ponders the effect if those "likely voter" screen questions aren't so accurate. LINK

USA Today 's Susan Page writes, "President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Senator John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year." LINK