ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News
W A S H I N G T O N, Aug. 9, 2004—<br> -- NOTED NOW
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21 days until the Republican convention85 days until election day
NEWS SUMMARY
Ken Mehlman was not invited to Sunday's meeting of the Journalists Division of the Gang of 500.
Had the President's campaign manager been in attendance, however, he would not have been surprised at what was discussed.
The meeting — held, per usual, on the top floor of Lauriol Plaza — did have a speaker phone set up, so those in Martha's Vineyard, the Hamptons, Jackson Hole, Nantucket, Kennebunkport, and aboard the Kerry train could participate.
In fact, somehow Mary Beth Cahill got the dial-in number, and she was able to listen in (while she leafed through the clips and some expense reports … ).
Cahill, too, wasn't the least bit surprised about what went on.
First, the group concluded that Friday's job numbers pretty much give them license through election day to frame all stories about the economy to convey a 43-reliving-41 job creation failure.
Along with the deficit, the rising numbers of the uninsured, and the "lack of courage" to raise taxes on the wealthy, the Journalist Division settled upon the storyline — voters have judged the president a bungler at guiding the economy.
Second, with the chaos in Iraq back on the front pages and on TV, the Division decided to remember that much of the president's weak job approval number and "wrong track" persistence, is based on the mess in Iraq. Everyone agreed to return that point to center stage leading up to the end of August as a good way to frame the Republican convention narrative.
Third, with only three dissenting votes, the Division agreed that until weapons of mass destruction are found in Iraq (thus restoring Mr. Bush's credibility) John Kerry's best attempts to come off as a Gore-like grasping, exaggerating, pandering, slashing equivocator would not be Noticed — or at least, not be allowed to define coverage of the Democratic nominee.
So Kerry's inexplicable attack on the President for staying in the classroom on 9/11? Ignore it. (Ignore what Mrs. Heinz Kerry said earlier in defending the president's actions.)
And Kerry's equally inexplicable blurting out to NPR that he would significantly reduce the number of troops in Iraq in his first year in office? Ignore that too.
Even ignore the wacky explanation given by one of his aides to the Washington Post, courageously on background: Kerry's "pledge to reduce troops came in response to a question and did not mark a new policy, rather a hope for improved conditions in Iraq."
On this point, the Division did raise an orange juice toast of agreement with the absent Mr. Mehlman, endorsing his view that, until and unless the press starts holding the non-incumbent accountable for such statements, the president probably can't win.
Ah, but what the Division members — mostly not regular churchgoers, mostly not gun owners, and mostly unaware of what it is like to get dirty while they work (literally, if not figuratively) — did not focus on was the micro, targeted way that Mehlman and Karl Rove plan to win the election anyway.
Thus, four must-reads in the papers today that explain how re-election can be eked out:
1. people of faith: the New York Times ' David Kirkpatrick front pages a fantastic look at how church leaders are team leaders for BC04. LINK and more on this story below. See also: LINK
2. gun owners: Jeff Birnbaum of the Washington Post examines the electoral muscle of the NRA. LINKand more on this story below
3. the coal community: the New York Times Christopher Drew and Rich Oppel explore the ways in which the Bush Administration and Bush campaign continue to appeal to those who make their living off of King Coal in those battleground states. LINK, and more on this story below.
4. military voters in North Florida: LINK and Arkansas and (even Oregon!!) and elsewhere.
Still undecided by the Division is how much attention to give to the specific "charges" in "Unfit For Command"; whether same-sex marriage will really cut for Bush in the end (the Division believes not but isn't entirely sure); who the "It" demographic will be in late October; where Kerry's debate expectations stand; whether John Edwards' stump prowess has been overrated; and several other matters to be detailed in the days ahead.
President Bush participates in an "Ask President Bush" event at the Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale, Va. at 10:00 am ET and meets with the Prime Minister of Poland at the White House at 1:15 pm ET. (No time to sample the Korean cuisine at Yechon, unfortunately, but we do wonder why the president is campaigning in the "safe" Old Dominion … .).
Today is also National George W. Bush Meetup Day. The week's theme for President Bush: the "era of ownership." As in, owning homes, owing and enjoying their retirement, and growing small businesses.
There is a new campaign ad out today on that very topic, and the campaign promises more new ads this week.
Mrs. Bush speaks about health care at the Sheraton Bucks County Hotel in Langhorne, Pa. at 11:15 am ET, speaks about the economy at the Radisson Hotel in Toledo, Ohio at 2:40 pm ET, and speaks at a Victory '04 Rally at the Boys and Girls Club in Royal Oak, Mich., at 5:20 pm ET.
Mrs. Bush is expected to make remarks about stem cell research today, in a sign that both sides are thinking about this issue in political terms. The Kerry campaign holds a conference call on the matter.
Coming off of an impromptu Winslow, Ariz., event that had some anonymous members of the Gang of 500 drawing comparisons to "the same s$&# that happened with Clinton in 1992," Sen. John Kerry takes his "Believe in America" tour to the Grand Canyon today.
Imus this morning attacked tour impresario Mort Engelberg repeatedly and gratuitously. LINK
The Kerry campaign will bracket the Grand Canyon visit with a 10:00 am ET surrogate conference call to discuss Kerry's "plan to preserve America's national parks."
Late today, Kerry will stump in Kingsman, Ariz., as he makes his way to Las Vegas, Nev., where he will stay overnight.
Senator Edwards attends an AFL-CIO Executive Meeting at the Drake Hotel in Chicago at 11:00 am ET and makes a local stop at Manny's in Chicago at 12:20 pm ET before heading to Wilmington, N.C. He spends the rest of the week at his vacation home in Shell Island, N.C.
Ralph Nader holds a press conference on paperless voting and the impact of lobbyists at the Maryland Inn in Annapolis, Md. at 11:00 am ET.
On Tuesday, President Bush speaks at a rally in Pensacola, Fla., participates in an "Ask President Bush" event in Niceville, Fla., and speaks at a rally in Panama City, Fla. Sen. John McCain will be in tow.
Mrs. Bush tours a woman-owned small business and speaks about the economy at SEEK, Inc., Grafton, Wis., speaks to women small business owners at the St. Cloud Civic Center, St. Cloud, Minn., and speaks to women small business owners at the Crowne Plaza Hotel, Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Sen. Kerry holds several campaign events in Las Vegas. Also Tuesday, Colorado and Connecticut holds its primary; Georgia, its run-off.
Also Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee meets to decide whether slowing job growth will slow their eagerness to raise interest rates.
On Wednesday, President Bush participates in an "Ask President Bush" event with Sen. McCain in Albuquerque, N.M., and speaks at a rally in Phoenix, Ariz. Kerry attends events in Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Vice President Cheney campaigns in Battle Creek, Mich., Wednesday. The rest of his schedule remains TBA. Also today, the House intelligence committee holds a Sept. 11 Commission report hearing.
On Thursday, President Bush speaks to the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners at their International Training Facility in Las Vegas, Nev., and speaks at a Victory 2004 Dinner in Santa Monica, Calif. Mrs. Bush joins him, and they both appear on "Larry King Live" Thursday night. Sen. Kerry remains in Los Angeles and attends more events, leaving for Eugene, Ore., in the evening where he participates in events on Friday. Ralph Nader faces an important ballot qualification deadline.
On Friday, President Bush speaks at the Small Business Summit in Portland, Ore., and speaks at a Victory 200 Dinner at a private residence in Medina, Wash.
Saturday brings the beginning of the Olympics from Athens, Greece.
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney v. Kerry-Edwards:
The Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip and Jackie Calmes turn in a must-read on how oil prices and a perceived stall in the economy's recovery pose a dilemma for President Bush: either acknowledge that things aren't going as planned or spin economic developments as on track. It's a fine line between appearing to admit that the economic policies aren't working, or looking overly positive and appearing out of touch with what's happening to workers. Hence the BC04 folks kicking around possibilities for changing the tax code.
The argument over unemployment and job creation is not pure numbers; it's the quality of jobs, the level of pay, the benefits to workers, and the earnings gap between the workers at the top of the scale and those at the bottom that are key, writes the New York Times ' Edmund Andrews. LINK
"Yes, the U.S. economy is creating new jobs. But to some of the workers who have been displaced during the downturn of the last three years, the new jobs look a lot worse than their old jobs," writes Warren Vieth of the Los Angeles Times with a Green Bay, Wis. dateline — one of the fastest growing job markets in the country. LINK
This article tracks so nicely with the Kerry-Edwards campaign script that we wouldn't be at all surprised if Steve Anderson soon received a phone call from David Axelrod or Mike Donilon.
Ron Brownstein columnizes in today's Los Angeles Times about the "venom" filled election cycle we have seen thus far from the likes of Michael Moore and Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Brownstein holds up John McCain as one skilled and rational navigator of this bitter partisan divide, and wonders if Bruce Springsteen might be the next McCain. LINK
The AP 's David Bauder examines how the only two men on Earth running for the job of leader of the free world are competing to be seen as just "regular guys." LINK
The Boston Herald 's Andrew Miga gives the Democratic and Republican presidential tickets a little instruction on what needs to be done this week before the Olympics. Noting that we should "Expect to hear more sparring over terrorism and the economy," Miga talks to some Republican and Democratic strategists on the message of the week. LINK
The Washington Post ' Sebastian Mallaby looks at the differences between President Bush and Sen. Kerry and opines "if people see this as an easy choice, they see something I'm missing." LINK
