The Note

ByABC News
March 31, 2004, 9:32 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, March 30&#151;<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

Pretty much every day, somewhere in America, someone is doing a poll or a focus group that finds its way into the brains of the Bush campaign and/or the Kerry campaign.

With negative ads flowing on both sides the new Bush one today goes at Kerry with humor on the gas tax the Clarke/Rice stuff, gas prices, gay marriage, jobs, and other election-effecting stuff in the news each day, the campaigns and interest groups want to know as much as possible about what is working and what is not.

No sane and practical campaign practitioner flies blind without what we call in the polite company of Karl Rove and Stan Greenberg "research" or "data" the newer the better.

But the White House is also sitting on months and months of research about what will make the American people view John Kerry as unacceptable on national security and taxes, unlikeable, and a cross between Mike Dukakis, Ted Kennedy, Al Gore, and Thurston Howell the 3rd (when he was grouchy and out of touch).

The Kerry campaign, with less money for research, focuses more on the daily headlines and trying to stress the economy and health care, while chipping away at national security.

So for the Rs, the formula is simple:

Positive ads (to boost the POTUS favs back up) + negative ads (to define Kerry) + f ree media from the negative ads (to increase the bang for the buck and bracket Kerry's free media message, as with today's gas tax ad) + presidential and vice presidential speeches and trips to swing states (like today's economic message in Wisconsin by Mr. Bush) + a crafty congressional agenda (except for that pesky highway bill .) + a foreign-trips-Olympics-9/11-anniversary-debates strategy like you wouldn't believe = 270 electoral votes or more

And for the Ds, things are a little more complicated and less linear:

Exploit negative headlines + wait for bad job numbers + watch as the allied groups magically help where needed + find a message that convinces Americans that their doubts about Bush exceed their questions about Kerry + hope the candidate improves and that the American people by November feel about him more like Bob Kerrey does than certain other Senators we know do + hope the candidate becomes something other than just "not Bush" = 270 or more electoral votes

For the past week, the dominant streams out of the politico-media miasma have consisted of, on the one hand, Bush television ads defining Bush and Kerry on BC04 terms, and, on the other hand, the Clarke/Rice coverage, doing, apparently, at least some damage to the president in (all together now) his Area of Greatest Strength.

The media's equation:

Genuine attempts at balance and objectivity minus (real and/or perceived) natural affinity for Kerry and Democrats divided by (the desire to filter free media through horse race lens + neenering about perennial debate over issues/strategy/horserace coverage + Gore-esque/Klein-esque critical coverage of Sen. Kerry as a person) = more Annenberg/Columbia Journalism Review symposiums about the decline in campaign coverage and more Note ledes.

We have no clue whether the new Gallup poll's numbers are rock solid; we do know that everyone in politics and political media has been using them like the Rosetta Stone for the last 16 hours and will continue to do so until some other numbers take their place.

And the consensus of the television and USA Today coverage is: the president's numbers on national security are down (naturally) but his overall horserace standing against Kerry is up (naturally).

The poll seems to show that the Bush campaign ads are working in the 17 battleground states to drive down the fav/unfavs of the Senator from Massachusetts. LINK

Susan Page of USA Today writes, "In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those [17 battleground] states, 63% to 35%. Now Bush leads Kerry in them by six points, 51% to 45%." Note: the margin of error is +/-3%. LINK

Ontheotherhand, as Richard Benedetto of USA Today points out, "Although a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll finds that 53% believe the Bush administration is 'covering up something' about its handling of intelligence before 9/11, 67% say it could not have prevented the attacks. But 54% say Bush still could have done more beforehand." Kind of, sort of score one for Shrum! LINK

Another key line, "The split 44% believe Clarke and 46% back the Bush administration is largely along party lines: 76% of Democrats side with Clarke, and 83% of Republicans with Bush."

On those ads, the Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny armed with, apparently, several remote controls riffs off of a day of television watching, pre "Wacky."

"While both candidates opened the campaign trying to bolster their supporters, their commercials to reach swing voters often appear on the same programs. Republicans and Democrats advertised heavily on local news programming, network morning shows and highly rated programs such as 'Dr. Phil,' 'Wheel of Fortune' and 'Law and Order.'" LINK

"One set of commercials features the president sitting with First Lady Laura Bush in the White House, talking about 'steady leadership in times of change.' Another set shows Kerry, with black-and-white images from his service in Vietnam, promising 'a new direction for America.'"

"The campaign ads, steeped in seriousness (sic), are aired in succession with pitches for common, household goods. A day of television viewing in St. Louis found the political spots sandwiched between ads for an improved blend of prune juice, a new lawnmower and countless offers for low mortgage rates or discount aluminum siding."

" viewers of shows as varied as "American Idol" and "America's Most Wanted" have seen a campaign ad from Bush, but not Kerry. At the same time, Democratic commercials criticizing the Bush have appeared on shows ranging from 'The Simpsons' to 'Judge Judy.'"

Today, Sen. Kerry will flesh out his gas price proposal, unveiling a plan to lower gas prices by pledging to pressure OPEC to open oil supplies, temporarily suspending filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, streamlining national and state fuel regulations and policies, and promising open energy meetings aimed at a goal of 20 percent renewable U.S. energy by the year 2020.

ABC News' Dan Harris reports that "The Kerry people smell blood here, knowing that sitting presidents often get blamed for high gas costs. They are furious and frustrated about Bush's (seemingly successful) attempts to blur the issue by airing attack ads accusing Kerry of wanting to hike the gas tax by 50-cents which they call misleading. They will go after Cheney pretty hard today on his secret energy task force meetings and his (and Bush's) ties to the oil industry." See our section below for more.

President Bush, as we said, is in Appleton, Wis. today to speak about the economy. See our section below for more on that.

Sen. Kerry campaigns and fundraises in San Diego before heading to a Beverly Hills fundraiser tonight.

Senate Democrats this morning are expected to urge Condoleezza Rice to testify in front of the 9/11 commission.

The Senate will also continue debate over the welfare reauthorization bill; voting on the first amendment is scheduled to begin at 12:15 pm.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect: Appleton

Gas prices in Wisconsin? Compare and contrast! LINK

President Bush makes his way to Appleton, Wisconsin today, the paper industry town where Harry Houdini grew up.

WBAY-TV in Green Bay Notes that Bush's visit is his first to the Fox River Valley in two years. LINK

The station predicts plenty of protestors.

Another story on that newscast focused on disruption to local businesses.(!) LINK

The Appleton Post-Crescent is all pomp and pageantry, with the requisite wide-eyed attention paid to the roadshow, the motorcade, security preps, the "just in case" hospital and those C-130 transport planes that arrived yesterday. LINK

Coincidentally, the city of Appleton is also hosting an emergency management conference, though the president has no plans to attend. LINK

ABC News' Ramona Schindelheim on the state's job scene:

"Wisconsin started losing jobs across all sectors 4 months before the nation as whole. Employment there has declined 2.3% since peaking in November 2000, while employment nationwide has declined 1.7% since peaking in March 2001. Manufacturing has been hardest hit in the state, declining a whopping 17% since peaking in March 2000. Preliminary figures show the state added 1,200 new manufacturing jobs in February."

Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has just returned from a four-day trade mission to China. LINK

The Appleton Post-Crescent reports that "A local program giving workers access to better-paying jobs attracts national attention today when President Bush recognizes a Neenah woman for her volunteer work during his stop in Appleton. Gloria Grandone was notified Thursday by officials of the USA Freedom Corps that she was selected to be honored by Bush for her work with the Appleton-based Doug and Carol Salmon Foundation. The foundation provides financial assistance for training and educating low-income residents." LINK

The Washington Post's Allen Notes that Friday's economic speech in West Virginia comes about three hours after a crucial job number is released. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect: at the mansion:

The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman reports that "President Bush's 2005 budget request for the Internal Revenue Service would seriously shortchange the agency's tax collection activities, leaving a half-million delinquent tax accounts uncollected, 15 million service calls unanswered and nearly 46,000 audits unscheduled, according to the president's own IRS oversight board." LINK