The Note
W A S H I N G T O N June 20—<br> -- Could the presidential campaign landscape be radically altered in the next two weeks?
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NEWS SUMMARY
Is leading The Note with a question such poor writing style that we should be ashamed?
In any case, between the second-quarter fundraising derby; the cattle calls; the Bush cash juggernaut; the Medicare battles and mandatory votes; the Howard Dean announcement (and anticipated Sunday show battering); and the hand-wringing over the size of the field — between all that, it's possible that something will in fact give.
While none of the Democrats seem to be aggressively trying to drive any rivals out of the race (what with all of them being so busy making sure they are able to stay buoyant themselves … ), there is a distinct feeling of political gravity in the air.
We forgive Jackie Calmes her beyond-hackneyed "SHOW ME THE MONEY" set up, because other than that, her Washington Wire item on the 2nd-quarter raising numbers is pure solid gold, taking public the expectations game heretofore confined to certain tables at Lauriol Plaza:
"June 30 reports loom as test of 2004 rivals' strength."
"Edwards, whose $7.4 million was tops for Democratic White House wannabes in March, 'will not hit our shock-and-awe number' for second-quarter, a spokeswoman says. Insiders say he will approach $5 million. Many expect Kerry to shine; manager Jim Jordan says onus is on Gephardt: 'After an embarrassing first quarter, he's the guy under pressure.'"
"'Rookie spin,' Gephardt's Erik Smith counters. 'Raise expectations for others when you're worried about meeting your own.' Newcomer Graham's report is awaited to gauge his Florida support. Lieberman 'hopes' to match his past $3 million, an aide says; outsiders saw that as subpart. Dean may hit $4 million, says manager Joe Trippi; rivals' rumor of $6 million is 'in-my-dreams … number.'"
Wow — Erik Smith calling Jordan a "rookie." The implications are staggering.
Meanwhile, down the page Ms. Calmes shifts from money to Medicare, staying, however, in the Invisible Primary netherworld:
"Medicare vote splits White House rivals from other Senate Democrats."
"Most Senate Democrats, led by liberal Kennedy, support a bipartisan Medicare bill creating a seniors' drug benefit, but those seeking their party's 2004 nomination balk under pressure from labor. Kerry and Graham voted no in Finance panel; both decline to say how they'll vote in Senate. 'I imagine he would be consistent,' a Graham aide says."
"Edwards objects that the measure 'didn't do a thing' to bring down drug costs, an aide says. Lieberman hasn't taken a position. Labor says the benefit won't go far enough; some want to deny Bush any credit for enactment."
"Liberal backers counter: Take the $400 billion benefit now — before Republicans cut taxes again."
More broadly, the AP's Will Lester has Democrats looking at a crowded field and worried about fundraising and message dilution.
He also offers his assessment of General Wesley Clark and Senator Joe Biden that is tough on both but harsher for Biden.
"The Democratic field for the presidential nomination is already crowded, and now Joe Biden and Wesley Clark are hinting they may become candidates Nos. 10 and 11, a prospect that leaves Republicans practically giddy with anticipation and a few Democrats wondering whether it's time to draw the line." LINK
"Some Democrats have started talking about requiring the candidates to meet a threshold of support reflected in public opinion polls to participate in debates and forums. It's a move unlikely to get past the discussion stage as it would likely alienate many in the party's base."
"In the meantime, Republicans are gleefully rubbing their hands."
"'It's an intramural battle on the Democratic side,' White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card told The Associated Press during a visit to New Hampshire earlier this week. 'They'll be playing A-ball, hoping to get up to Double A, then maybe getting up to Triple A before they get to the majors. I think we've got to let that process mature.'"
"Republican consultant Scott Reed said: 'Candidate forums will turn into reruns of 'Hee Haw.' They will become out-of-control events that diminish all of the candidates and lower everybody's expectations.'"
Meanwhile (Note the seamless transition … ), there are twin Bush-Cheney '04 fundraisers tonight. POTUS travels to Greensboro, Georgia.
Pool press only — continuing a practice that is now becoming all too routine.
ABC's Ann Compton reports that Bush's speech tonight will probably be a carbon copy of the one he delivered Wednesday evening.
And she expects few reporters to bother trying to gain access. Not only is the event designated for pool coverage only, the press charter down to Georgia is, by normal standards, expensive.
"A tiny airport. Bush going in on small plane — even the travel pool is on a separate charter — that's a White House first," Compton Notes.
The Bush campaign won't say how many people they expect tonight, nor how much money they want to take in.
FLOTUS is in Chattanooga, Tennessee for her own event. We wonder what coverage for that event will be (like).
Along with the Democratic state chairs hosting a serial procession of presidential would-bees today, Congressman Gephardt is in Missouri, and Senator Edwards is in Iowa.
Tomorrow, Governor Dean, Senator Edwards, Representative Gephardt, Senator Graham, Senator Kerry, Representative Kucinich and Reverend Sharpton will participate in the Jasper County, Iowa presidential candidate forum--several via videoconference.
On Sunday, Jesse Jackson's Rainbow/PUSH Coalition Democratic presidential candidate forum features all the candidates sans Senator Edwards.
The Des Moines Register previews the Jasper County hoo ha: LINK
The Minnesota papers go gaga over today's presidential candidate forum:
"DNC chair Terry McAuliffe says the forum gives candidates a chance to speak directly to the foot soldiers of the 2004 presidential contest." LINK
"'These are the people who are in charge of the party operations in their respective states. You have the people here who are talking to the, literally, the thousands of people that they deal with on a weekly basis in their states, who go out, who we count on to deliver the votes to the polls, to do the door-knocking, to make the phone calls, and do what we need to do. So, I think it's absolutely critical,' according to McAuliffe."
Finally, the Los Angeles Times' Ed Chen has exclusive details on a presidential injury:
"Hobbled by aching knees and an inflamed right calf, America's First Runner has been all but sidelined from his favorite exercise and says his woes serve up a good lesson to all sports-minded baby boomers." LINK
"'Listen to your body. I tried to run through the pain and it didn't work,' President Bush said in remarks relayed to the Los Angeles Times on Thursday by White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer."
"The president first complained to a reporter about his knees during a private party in Washington in late April, blaming it on age. Bush is 56."
"At The Times ' request, Bush on Thursday supplied new details of his injuries, during a day trip here to deliver a speech on the economy."
"Earlier Thursday, the president gave a public tip-off to what he called 'a runner's injury' on the tarmac at Andrews Air Force Base in suburban Maryland as he walked toward Air Force One, before traveling to Minnesota."
"Playfully, he abruptly clutched his left knee with both hands, then broke into a wide grin, leaving most observers puzzled."
"About 2 1/2 months ago, Bush, an avid runner for more than 15 years, noticed an aching right calf muscle after a hard run."
"It turned out to be a minor muscle tear, Fleischer said, and Bush reined in his running about that time."
There's a metaphor in there somewhere, but we'll leave it to the political poets to find it.
Bush-Cheney re-elect, the money:
The Wirey Jackie Calmes reports this in the Wall Street Journal : "Bush advisers try to stanch talk he'll beat an already jaw-dropping $20 million fund-raising goal for June. But besides the president's own events, others starring his wife and Cheney lift expectations further. 'These guys are rocking and rolling,' a Republican in the know says. Next week's Bush gala in New York alone could raise $5 million; financial-industry money-raisers include Lehman Brothers and Credit Suisse First Boston executives."
Mike Allen knows this, and now, so do you: it's at the Ritz Carlton Lodge, Reynolds Plantation, 100 Linger Longer Road, Greensboro, Georgia.
Ann Compton reminds us that the more interesting fundraisers are scheduled for next week and beyond — California and Florida — and in Texas, the weekend the legislature takes up redistricting again.
Following up on a story that appeared in Thursday's New York Times , the AP's Sara Kugler reports that some prominent New York Democrats are helping to fund the GOP's New York convention motivated by "pride in the Big Apple" and "potential tourism dollars." LINK
Bush-Cheney re-elect:
Elisabeth Bumiller saw the POTUS to MN event as more playing of defense on the economy, and maybe an attempt to squash the Democratic state chairs meeting. LINK
The Boston Globe 's Robert Schlesinger writes about the efforts of antiwar groups such as Win Without War and MoveOn.org to target President Bush, with a full page ad in the New York Times dubbing him a "misleader" and addressing the controversy over the existence of WsMD. LINKMoveOn.org states that 100,000 have signed up online in response to the ad, with $100,000 raised already, while former Maine congressman Tom Andrews of Win Without War says: '''This strikes a raw nerve to people involved in our coalition.'''
Other numbers include the 71,000 faxes to congresspeople arranged by Ben "I'm with Jerry" Cohen's TrueMajority.org, and the 73,000 emails sent to Bill Frist and Tom Daschle via Working Assets.
With the Washington Post ed board pounding on the president to use more muscle to get the AmeriCorps deal ironed out LINK , and given that whole says-one-thing-does-another deal, it might be a good day to ask Ari (or Scott) what concrete actions the POTUS will take to back up the words included in the White House statement following yesterdays' incremental congressional action:
"It is also the essential first step toward maximizing enrollment this year to benefit the nonprofit organizations that count on AmeriCorps members to offer help and hope to people in communities across the country."
The Bush-Cheney '04 mass e-mail of the day deals with the president's "focus" on creating jobs.
ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:
USA Today 's Jim Drinkard updates the progress of Joe Carmichael's new 527, which we told you about a while ago:
"A group of powerful Democrats, including labor union chiefs and wealthy donors, is forming a political organization to raise money and improve the party's chances in the 2004 presidential election and other federal, state and local races." LINK
