The Note: "Myopic Misread of the American Electorate"
WASHINGTON, Oct. 11, 2004 -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
22 days until Election Day 2 days until the third presidential debate
NEWS SUMMARY
Beyond the Note-y Notion that the winner of the electoral votes of at least two of the Big Three (Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio) will win the White House, we would also say that the winner of the Tempest in Tempe will win the popular vote and — probably — the election.
If there is no winner in Wednesday's final debate, or if President Bush wins the Tempest in Tempe, John Kerry will likely have to find some other avenue to position himself for 270+ electoral votes, and we can't imagine what that would be. (But just because we can't imagine it doesn't mean it doesn't exist …)
No one has a definitive sense of which side will have the better ground game, and no one ever will (until, maybe, on election day).
If you haven't mastered the politics of the Colorado ballot measure that would change the state's electoral vote formula, act now — before it is too late. (Note to legal types: could y'all e-mail us your sense of the applicable case law that will be bandied about if this thing passes — and is inevitably challenged?). politicalunit@abcnews.com
The capacity of Kerry advisers — old and new — to talk explicitly and on the record about what voting groups they are trying to win over with certain actions and statements is just an amazing thing to behold.
We miss Bob Shrum in the spin room — we really do.
At this point, John Kerry's re-introduction of the bunker-busting bomb "debate" into this race has been about as effective as his capacity to explain his health care plan in a politically beneficial manner. Now think about that (as Bill Clinton would say . . .).
Although certain news executives and anchors (and at least one presidential candidate . . . ) will continue to pay lip service to the Notion of this as "the most important election of our lifetime blah blah blah," most of their attention for the next ten days or so will be on the Yankees-Red Sox series.
In fact, the ratings for the Yankees-Red Sox game on Wednesday will be boffo — likely benefiting the former team owner who leads the race.
A valuable window into the BC04 strategy might well have been what Karl Rove told those Nevada television stations right after Friday's debate in custom two-ways — or maybe the window just comes from the fact that he did those, rather than spin the national press.
Kerry advisers promise the "Full Yucca" is yet to come, but wethinks whatever it is, it might be a bit late and off-kilter.
We doubt anyone will hold Senator Kerry to his pledge to speak about religious faith and values before election day.
Anyone who underestimates how angry African-American voters in Florida are about 2000, or who somehow thinks that Democrats won't figure out a way to turn that anger into a potentially insurmountable turnout on election day, might be making a mistake.
The weather in key states on election day could effect turnout as much as 600 Ken Mehlman field troops or 600 ACT organizers.
The New York Times Magazine is available on Thursdays each week — for those of you doing rapid response, take Note.
In fact, on this day, when President Bush and Senator Kerry share New Mexico in the midday, and about 96 hours after the Magazine hit the streets, the Bush campaign has a new ad it released late Sunday criticizing Senator John Kerry for telling the Times that he wants to get back to a time when terrorism is just a "nuisance."
The Kerry campaign has responded with its own ad which includes, among other things, footage of Bush's telling Matt Lauer on "Today" that he doesn't believe the war on terror can be won. LINK and LINK
The other story that could move things around rhetorically today is in a certain West Coast paper.
Per the Los Angeles Times' Mark Mazzetti, "the Bush administration plans to delay major assaults on rebel-held cities in Iraq until after U.S. elections in November, say administration officials, mindful that large-scale military offensives could affect the U.S. presidential race." LINK
"'When this election's over, you'll see us move very vigorously,' said one senior administration official involved in strategic planning, speaking on condition of anonymity."
"'Once you're past the election, it changes the political ramifications' of a large-scale offensive, the official said. 'We're not on hold right now. We're just not as aggressive.'"
Bush advisers are already saying the story isn't true this morning.
With only two days to go until the third, and final, presidential debate, President Bush holds an 11:05 am ET rally in Hobbs, NM; helps raise money for Pete Coors' Senate campaign in Denver, CO at 2:20 pm ET; and holds a rally in Denver, CO at 7:00 pm ET. Sunday on "Meet the Press," Pete Coors suggested Congress would not have voted to authorize a war in Iraq if the members had known "what we know today." LINK
Senator John Kerry holds a noon ET town hall meeting in Santa Fe, NM on the topic of energy independence. He spends the rest of the day preparing for Wednesday's domestic policy debate in Tempe, AZ.
Senator John Edwards holds an 11:00 am ET town hall meeting in Newton, IA and a 6:00 pm ET rally in Kansas City, MO. The highly visible Edwards, who appeared on all five Sunday shows in an act of Full Ginsbergity, will be Jay Leno's guest on Tuesday, the night before the final presidential debate. LINK and LINK
At noon ET today, the Senate is expected to approve a corporate tax bill that would give nearly $140 billion in business breaks over the next decade. The measure was stalled on Sunday until an agreement was reached to vote Monday on a proposal by Senator Mary Landrieu to give employers a 50 percent tax credit for up to $30,000 if they make up the pay their employees lose when they are called to active duty in the Reserves or Guard. The measure will then be sent to the House where GOP leaders are opposed. LINK and LINK and LINK
On Tuesday, Edwards does Leno and campaigns in Colorado, San Francisco and Oregon; Bush campaigns in Colorado and Arizona; Kerry has an open press arrival in Phoenix, AZ; and Cheney campaigns in Iowa.
On Wednesday, Bush and Kerry debate at Arizona State University in Tempe, AZ, and attend post-debate rallies; Edwards campaigns in Oregon and Iowa; Cheney does a bus tour of Pennsylvania.
On Thursday, Bush holds a rally with governors in Las Vegas before campaigning in Reno, NV and Central Point, OR; Kerry addresses the AARP in Las Vegas before campaigning in Des Moines, IA with Edwards; Cheney campaigns in Florida.
On Friday, Cheney does a bus tour in Michigan; Kerry campaigns in Minnesota or Wisconsin; Bush and Edwards' schedules: TBD.
ABC News Vote 2004: the Tempest in Tempe:
The Arizona Republic lets locals know where they can find the candidates and show their support after the debate: Bush at Bank One Ballpark; Kerry at Tempe Town Lake. LINK
An editorial in ASU's State Press Notes the huge presence of the news media descending upon campus, as well as what you can do if you can't get into the debate: "then head to the Wells Fargo Arena and hang out with 9,999 of your closest friends." Or, students can stick to the regular "going to school and drinking beer afterward." LINK
Security at ASU and in Tempe is getting beefed up for the arrival of the presidential candidates. LINK
Newsweek's Richard Wolffe writes about the theatrics involved in the debate expectations game and post-debate spin, Noting, "There's little hope that this week's final debate in Arizona will be any less antagonistic." LINK
Josh Gerstein of the New York Sun reports a state judge in Arizona has ordered a hearing on whether the third presidential debate, scheduled for Wednesday, should be halted "because the Libertarian Party's nominee for president has not been invited." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry:Walter Shapiro advises, "If Kerry succeeds in making the name Bush synonymous with one-term presidents, then historians may hark back to Friday night's second presidential debate as one of the pivotal moments that shaped his new administration. Nothing suggests that the debate did more than solidify the too-close-to-call nature of the contest." LINK
Bob Novak writes that, at the second debate, President Bush "concentrated on imprinting the scarlet letter 'L' (for liberal) on his Democratic challenger's chest. Whether or not he succeeds may determine who is elected." LINK
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Sabatini reports, "Tax proposals set forth by President Bush and Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry share one overriding theme: Both would add billions to the swollen federal deficit." LINK
On Sunday, the Los Angeles Times' Reynolds and Finnegan had an excellent wrap of the candidates' sparring this weekend. LINK
On Saturday, the Washington Post 's David S. Broder looked at how Iraq and the Philly Suburbs are messing up BC04 re-elect campaign in battleground Pennsylvania. LINK Time magazine has a good look at the campaigns' ground wars. LINK The New York Times ' James Bennett on Sunday looked at why the candidates dislike each other so much — despite their similar patrician and Elie backgrounds. The New York Daily News
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
The New York Times ' David Sanger writes that President Bush has taken the standard for invading another country from imminent threat to capacity to intention with respect to his campaign statements about Iraq. LINK
Elisabeth Bumiller on the Gersonian poetry moving in — and out — and back into Bush's stump speech and Karl Rove's not-so-hidden hand. LINK
Dana Milbank looks at David Addington, Cheney's counsel who has pushed executive power. "LINK
The AP takes up the unsubstantiated chatter that Bush was wired during the first debate. LINK
Bill Safire on why Bush won Round 2. LINK
In the New York Times , Robert Pear and Robin Toner write that the new Medicare law has run into difficulties because "its emphasis on private market forces and consumer choice has made it too complicated for many elderly beneficiaries," according to experts and advocates. What's more, bitterness continues over the cost estimates used to justify the law's passage. LINK
John Harwood looks at Newt Gingrich's gratification at Bush's turn to an ideological argument against Kerry.
"On the stump and in Friday night's town-hall debate with Senator John Kerry in St. Louis, the Republican incumbent has begun tagging his Democratic challenger as a 'tax-and-spend liberal' in contrast with Mr. Bush's own 'compassionate conservative' philosophy. Such rhetoric has cheered Republicans outside the campaign who have urged Bush strategists to move beyond character attacks grounded in Mr. Kerry's alleged policy flip-flops."
The Wall Street Journal 's editorial board says this year's employment progress favorably rivals 1996.
The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign has released two ads since last Friday — one focusing on the jobs numbers that came out that day and the second hitting Kerry on quotes from that interview with the New York Times Magazine.
In his ad spotlight on Bush's "two million" jobs spot, the New York Times ' Dick Stevenson writes that "'nearly two million' new jobs may sound like a lot to voters who do not follow economic statistics closely, and if nothing else the commercial could help Mr. Bush to paint Mr. Kerry as a pessimist if he talks about the economy in negative terms." LINK
BC04 released an ad Sunday, "World View," that hits Senator Kerry on hits Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism and ends with the question, "How can Kerry protect us when he doesn't understand the threat."
The ad will run on national cable and on the Bush-Cheney '04 website (www.georgewbush.com LINK) — NOT on local stations in battleground states at this point.
Script:
Voice Over:First, Kerry said defeating terrorism was really MORE about law enforcement and intelligence than a strong military operation … More about law enforcement than a strong military?Now Kerry says … We have to get back to the place where terrorists are a nuisance like gambling and prostitution … we're never going to end them.Terrorism … a nuisance?How can Kerry protect us when he doesn't understand the threat?
President Bush: I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message.
President Bush will campaign with U.S. Senate candidate Pete Coors in Denver, CO today before meeting up with retired Gen. Tommy Franks at Red Rocks. LINK
As many as 17,000 are expected to attend the president's rally in New Mexico today, reports the Albuquerque Journal. LINK
The DNC is launching a New Mexico specific ad to bracket the president's visit running yesterday, today, and tomorrow in Albuquerque and Roswell and could possibly be expanded to Las Cruces. You can check out the ad here. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04: ABC News' Ed O'Keefe reports that former President Bill Clinton campaign for Senator John Kerry in the final push to election day. According to the campaign, Clinton will campaign "as doctors see fit." The former President will likely campaign in African-American communities and in other GOTV efforts. Clinton will also likely participate in radio ads, robo calls and direct mail efforts.
The New York Times Jim Dwyer on the "rekindled fervor" of African-American voters. LINK
"The voters interviewed — habitual Democrats, for the most part — spoke about John Kerry with polite reserve, as if he were a distant cousin, more rumor, so far, than actual family relation. 'I guess he's all right, but he's no Bill Clinton, downright homey-like,' said Eddie West, a maintenance worker with the Salvation Army in Jacksonville."
The Miami Herald writes up Senator Kerry's trip to Florida on Sunday to woo African-American voters and the Miami Herald editorial board, where he promised to work with allies that do business in Cuba to pressure Fidel Castro. LINK
Knight Ridder's James Kuhnhenn Notes, "Sounding almost preacher-like at the Friendship Missionary Baptist Church, Kerry summoned more Biblical references than he usually does with church audiences." LINK
Rev. Jesse Jackson joined Kerry in Florida. "Never again will a million African-Americans be denied their right to exercise the vote in the United States of America," the Catholic candidate told Sunday morning attendees of Friends Missionary Baptist Church in Miami. LINK
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