The Note: Self-evident Truthiness

WASHINGTON, Oct. 13

Things the Gang of 500 knows with absolute certainty, most of which are true, and/but all of which can be used at cocktail parties and on soccer game sidelines all weekend:

1. The Washington Post's Dan Balz and buff Diamond Jim VandeHei are spot on when they write today about the fight for House control, "Some top Republicans privately talk about losing a minimum of 12 seats, leaving them with a barely workable majority, and as many as 25 or 30 seats. Democratic strategists see the range of potential pickups in almost identical terms." LINK

2. The winners, in order, of Mark Warner's decision not to run for president in 2008 are Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Evan Bayh.

3. The liberal Old Media's breathless reaction to David Kuo's book notwithstanding, the Bush Administration has close ties to religious conservatives -- and the White House Office of Political Affairs is a taxpayer-funded operation that -- under presidents of both parties -- works on political affairs.

4. Very little is going to leak from the ethics committee's page investigation.

5. If Todd Harris has been hired to work to save the Mark Foley seat for the Republicans, Tom Reynolds hasn't given up on it yet.

6. Bill Clinton will raise the roof in Iowa this weekend, with one of the five best political speeches of the year.

7. Harry Reid doesn't give a rip about the Washington Post's ed board's view of his land deal; oddly, Karl Rove does. LINK

8. Mitt Romney and John Edwards have had very good 2006s.

9. Despite rampant e-mail traffic to the contrary, Mark Warner did not drop out of the race because he had just finished reading The Way to Win. LINK

10. "Staying the course" is not an option; neither is "adapt and change."

Notwithstanding #4 above, the stakeout in the basement of the Capitol will be chock full of reporters today. Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) -- the top Republican on the House Page Board -- is expected to testify before the House ethics committee today. According to Roll Call, "Shimkus will be accompanied before the panel by his attorney, Barry Pollack with the firm Kelley Drye & Warren in Washington, D.C."

Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times has more. LINK

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) is expected to plead guilty to corruption charges this morning before U.S. District Judge Ellen Segal Huvelle at 10:00 am ET in Washington, DC. (In Portland, OR yesterday, Nancy Pelosi -- rhetorically -- joined Ohio GOP Chair Bob Bennett and Republican House candidate Joy Padgett in calling for Ney to resign.)

Also in Washington today, President Bush signs the Safe Port Act at 10:00 am ET, attends a RNC luncheon at 12:05 pm ET and then meets with his Management Council on the President's Management Agenda at 1:30 pm ET. The President's RNC fundraiser is expected to raise $900,000 from the anticipated 85 attendees.

Former governor/former presidential prospect Mark Warner appears with House candidate Bruce Braley (D-IA) at a campaign event at the University of Northern Iowa Regional Business Center at 12:00 pm ET in Waterloo, IA.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) keynotes the annual New Hampshire Democratic Party "Jefferson-Jackson" dinner in Manchester, NH at 6:30 pm ET.

Bill Clinton expresses his support of Proposition 87, the Clean Alternative Energy Act, at 11:15 am ET in Los Angeles, CA.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman attends rallies and fundraisers in one Tennessee today.

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