The Note: A Ballet Being Fought Out in the Alley

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 17

Eleven things to remember with three weeks to go:

1. There are no network/AP exit polls in House races on Election Day.

2. As the Washington Post reminds us with numeric precision today, most House Republican candidates in tough races are better funded than their Democratic rivals. LINK

3. Bill Clinton is more popular than George W. Bush and most Republicans don't know why that is.

4. Five people you should assign tails to if you want to know what is actually happening: Sara Taylor, Michael Whouley, Tom Reynolds, Ron Brownstein, and everyone from POS. LINK

5. No one can possibly know how well Big Labor will do in turning out the vote on November 7.

6. The Old Media is totally unqualified to track robo-calls, direct mail, radio ads, and church fliers (and campaigns know this).

7. Someday, someone will explain why George W. Bush's Justice Department is engaging in investigations that are deleterious to the chances that Republicans will retain control of Congress.

8. Every case of malfunctioning voting machines or voter fraud is a serious matter, but not every case of malfunctioning voting machines or voter fraud is part of a conspiracy directed by trial lawyers or Karl Rove.

9. At some point, President Bush will stop doing fundraisers and start doing huge crowd events (but when and where? The Note wonders. . . ).

10. Saying "I won't get Swiftboated!!!" is not the same thing as not getting Swiftboated.

11. There are (still) no network/AP exit polls in House races on Election Day.

Today's consensus snapshot of where things stand, courtesy of Roll Call: "One GOP consultant familiar with fresh polling conducted last week said it showed Republicans in districts across the country in the worst shape yet this cycle.""'If it doesn't get any better than it was last week, it's going to be a bloodbath,' the consultant said. 'We'll see if it gets worse, or stays the same or gets better.'"

The conspiracy of silence among the Gang of 500, which is NOT to be shared with anyone else: the name of the current House member who just might have his own page problem.

(Pause for anger, confusion, shouts, murmurs, and demands.)

As for today:

President Bush signs the "Military Commissions Act of 2006" -- a bill that establishes guidelines for the interrogations and trials of terrorism suspects -- at 9:35 am ET in the East Room at The White House. Mr. Bush then participates in a ceremonial swearing-in for Transportation Secretary Mary Peters at 1:20 pm ET at the Transportation Department. The President's final public event on his schedule is at 2:30 pm ET when he meets with Prime Minister Ivo Sanader of Croatia in the Oval Office in Washington, DC.

ABC News' Karen Travers reports, "White House Press Secretary Tony Snow said there will be no signing statement to go along with the bill signing because Congress 'did a really good job this time' on the legislation and the White House is satisfied with it."

Today's Wall Street Journal has a letter to the editor from House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), arguing that the Military Commissions Act is "not tough enough on terrorists because there is no certainty the act will withstand the scrutiny of the Supreme Court. If the act is tied up in litigation and eventually struck down, convicted terrorists could have a 'get-out-of-jail-free' card."

Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) new book, "The Audacity of Hope," hits bookshelves. Obama does some signings at Chicago bookstores before appearing on Oprah tomorrow.

DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-NY) holds a pen and pad briefing to discuss the latest developments in the Senate races at 2:30 pm ET at the Mott House in Washington, DC. Today's Quinnipiac University poll showing Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) with a 53 to 41 percent lead over Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH) among likely Buckeye State voters, combined with yesterday's New York Times story about plans to shift some national GOP money away from the DeWine race should make for an interesting briefing. (The Ohio Poll out of the University of Cincinnati this morning shows Brown's lead at seven points, 52 to 45 percent.)

Sen. John McCain attends a rally for GOP congressional candidate Jon Gard at the Copper Leaf at 1:30 pm ET in Appleton, WI. Gard is battling Steve Kagen (D-WI) for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district seat.

Karl Rove attends a reception in Washington, DC for Michele Bachmann (R-MN), who is fighting Democrat Patty Wetterling for the seat being vacated by senatorial candidate Mark Kennedy (R-MN).

First Lady Laura Bush attends "Teddy Roosevelt and the Treasure or URSA Major" at 12:30 pm ET at the JFK Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) attends a lunchtime fundraiser at Vito's Restaurant for gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver (D-IA) at 1:00 pm ET in Iowa City, IA.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) attends a number of events in Iowa City, IA today, chief among them is a 5:00 pm ET speech to the University of Iowa College of Law and a 7:00 pm ET fundraiser for House candidate Dave Loebsack (D-IA). Sen. Dodd also headlines a reception for returned Peace Corps volunteers in Iowa City, IA at 8:30 pm ET. (Peace Corps volunteers are to Dodd what Mormons were to the Hatch for President juggernaut.)

Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) and Jon Tester (D-MT) debate at 10:00 pm ET at Montana State University in Billings, MT.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) attends the Michigan Republican Party's Countdown to Victory Dinner in Grand Rapids, MI at 6:30 pm ET.

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) attends a media availability with Labor Secretary Elaine Chao at 11:00 am ET in Philadelphia, PA.

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) participates in a roundtable discussion at 11:30 pm ET on competitiveness and innovation with Secretary Margaret Spellings at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque, NM. The two will then hold a media availability at 12:30 pm ET.

Gen. Wesley Clark is busy campaigning in Florida today. First he attends a news conference at 10:45 am ET in Palmetto to talk about port security with House candidate Christine Jennings (D-FL) and 9/11 Commissioner Tim Roemer. He then appears with House candidate Tim Mahoney (D-FL) in Port Charlotte to talk about national security and the war on terror at 11:30 am ET. Clark and Mahoney appear together again in West Palm Beach, FL at 2:00 pm ET. Mahoney is the Democrat hoping to pickup the seat vacated by former Rep. Mark Foley.

The Rev. Al Sharpton delivers a keynote address at Yale University in New Haven, CT at 7:30 pm ET to discuss "the backlash of the Christian right" and mobilizing the Christian left.

At 10:30 am ET, Joan Claybrook, President of Public Citizen, holds a telephone press conference to release a report on how much money members of Congress have received from special interest groups.

2006: landscape:
In a must-read, the Washington Post's Jeffrey Birnbaum and Zachary Goldfarb report that GOP incumbents in highly competitive House races "have a substantial cash advantage going into the final weeks before the midterm elections." LINK

According to a Washington Post analysis, "Democrats spent more heavily over the summer and early autumn than their Republican rivals in pivotal House districts, leaving themselves at a disadvantage of more than 2 to 1 in money on hand."

GOP candidates hold an average cash advantage of $450,000 in 25 of the most competitive districts, according to an NRCC memo given to the Washington Post by a Republican.

USA Today focuses on the somewhat less pertinent 3rd quarter fundraising figures and reveals that Democratic candidates in nearly half of the most competitive races raised more 3rd quarter money than their Republican counterparts. Jill Lawrence adds up the numbers. LINK

On "Good Morning America," ABC News' Claire Shipman looked at the efforts to get single women to the polls in November and potential record breaking numbers of women serving in Congress. "Women stand to play an enormous role this election, both as candidates and as voters," reported Shipman. In her report, Shipman included Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway saying, "Female candidates are looked upon by both sexes as being more ethical."

Kristen Mack of the Houston Chronicle profiles Republican money man Bob Perry's and writes that his $8 million in donations makes him the top GOP-leaning donor this year according to Congressional Quarterly. Perry, a Houston home builder has financed such groups as the Economic Freedom Fund, the Free Enterprise Fund, and most recently, Americans for Honesty on Issues. LINK

The recent GOP scandals are rallying the Democratic troops, writes Thomas Fitzgerald of the Philadelphia Inquirer: "A Democracy Corps poll released Friday surveying 1,200 likely voters in 49 competitive Republican-held House districts found Democrats with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead. It also found greater intensity among those who intend to vote Democratic, with 66 percent saying they were "very interested" in the elections, compared with 56 percent of Republicans." LINK

The New York Sun's Josh Gerstein reports that Patrick Rooney's America's Pac "began running ads last month in more than two dozen congressional districts. The campaign discusses issues ranging from warrantless wiretapping to school choice, but the most inflammatory spots pertain to abortion." LINK