The Note: Polls Versus Guts

Karl Rove and other strategists may have charts that show how everything is going to be fine for the GOP on Tuesday, but one senior GOP strategist concedes that about 7 GOP held seats are lost causes: an open seat in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio plus incumbents Rep. Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania and Rep. Chris Chocola and John Hostettler of Indiana reports Janet Hook of the Los Angeles Times. LINK

Note the opening Boehner-Rove anecdote. Jonathan Martin and Josh Kraushaar of National Journal take a look at the political landscape for Democrats in the House in 2008. Should they only win a majority by only a narrow margin on Tuesday, their majority party status may be fleeting. LINK

The Washington Post's Al Kamen reports that a D Street SE block on Capitol Hill is an "enclave of several endangered Republicans," including Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT), Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) who lives next door, Rep. Chris Chocola (R-IN) who lives two doors down, former Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) who lives next door, and Rep. Jim Ryun (R-KS) who lives across the street. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports that House Democrats say "Republican operatives send automated middle-of-the-night phone calls naming Democratic candidates to alienate voters in Pennsylvania, Connecticut and California. House Republican spokesman Carl Forti dismisses the claim as 'totally baseless,' saying the party places no calls after 8 pm."

2006: House: PA-06 & PA-08:

In a column looking at the Democratic "Murphys" running in the sixth and eighth congressional districts of Pennsylvania, the Washington Post's E.J. Dionne reports that Iraq vet Patrick Murphy is "closing with an advertisement saying that when it comes to Iraq, his opponent and President Bush 'have no idea how to fix this mess.' He adds: 'Now you get to decide if they're getting it right in Iraq and here at home.'" LINK

Dionne also Notes that the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Thursday that "Democrats have posted modest but clear registration gains since May in all of the four big nominally Republican counties outside of Philadelphia: Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery."

2006: House: FL-13:

"Republican Vern Buchanan was interrupted by laughter during a debate before a group of veterans Thursday when he insisted that the White House has a strategy for the war in Iraq," Notes the Herald Tribune's Doug Sword. LINK

2006: House: FL-16:

Michael Bender of the Palm Beach Post reports that Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) campaigned for Republican Joe Negron on Thursday saying: "It will help George, no question about, to maintain control of Congress." Democrat Tim Mahoney has received the endorsement of the "Blue Dogs." LINK

2006: House: CA-04:

We wonder what will Charlie Brown have to say about this . . .

Per the Washington Post's James Grimaldi and Susan Schmidt, "Early last year, two little-known nonprofit groups paid for Rep. John T. Doolittle (R-Calif.) and his 12-year-old daughter to travel to South Korea and Malaysia. Their last stop was the Berjaya Beach & Spa Resort on the Malaysian island of Langkawi, where they bunked at an oceanfront chalet staffed with a personal butler, got massages and rode water scooters on Burau Bay." LINK

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