The Note: Rethinking Rudy

— -- WASHINGTON, Mar. 5

The Gang of 500's previous unanimous view that Rudy Giuliani cannot win the Republican presidential nomination has come to a stunning end, and the Gang is now cleaved into three groups of indeterminate sizes.

The first group still believes that Giuliani can't be nominated -- despite the overwhelming lead he enjoys in all current national horserace polling. Members of Group 1 believe that there are 96 reasons that the former New York City mayor absolutely can't sustain his lofty position over the next eleven months, and his oft-discussed liberal positions on social issues aren't even the twelfth-most significant factor.

Group 2 contains Gang members who believe that Giuliani's chances are infinitesimally tiny and wee, but they are extant, if all the stars align, and if all the other candidates collapse and if 2008 is truly a different kind of election than the nation has seen in years and years.

Adherents of Group 3 -- surely still the smallest of the trio -- believe that the Giuliani campaign's mantra about leadership and the post-9/11 environment and the fact that one can now walk without fear from a Broadway show to a late-night dinner at Orso, will lead him to the nomination and the White House.

Eventually, The Note will publish the full list of 96 reasons why the smart money remains on Group 1's point of view, but for today -- with the Giuliani rise THE biggest story in American politics (yes, bigger than Obama right now), let's examine the reasons why Giuliani has been able to rise so high, and why he just might be able to keep it up for at least several more months:

1. McCain=Old Man Iraq, and Romney=Flip-Flopping Mormon, and the rest of the field=nothing (yet).

2. It is (theoretically) in McCain's interest to allow nomination voters to park (temporarily, his campaign assumes) on Giuliani to keep them from going to Romney, whom the McCainiacs see as a bigger threat over the long term.

3. Romney's current flip-flop problem makes him too flawed a messenger to effectively take Giuliani out.

4. Giuliani hasn't submitted to an hour-long interview with George Stephanopoulos, Ron Brownstein, or Tim Russert (and it doesn't seem like he has plans to do so any time soon).

5. 9/11 made Giuliani a national iconic hero, and New York City less toxic as a political base.

6. Giuliani's celebrity and television-created heroic image creates frissions of excitement in every part of the country. USA Nation loves made-for-TV drama.

7. Some key Bush-Cheney advisers have been telling elite political reporters for months and months that Giuliani can win the nomination, and that has laid a foundation of cred. 8. His image suggests to some that he can make Blue States competitive -- which, post-43, would be huge for the party.

9. Until (and unless) he fails to keep pace in fundraising, people are assuming he will keep pace in fundraising.

10. The press is still giving him the benefit of the doubt of the double standard (imagine if Chelsea Clinton said the kinds of things Andrew Giuliani did this weekend….).

11. No one else in American politics can walk into any bar in the country, be instantly recognized, and get a standing ovation and a free beer.

12. The national media has fallen out of love with John McCain and needs a new Republican crush.

13. The New York-based media, which has (mostly) lost its capacity to HEART Giuliani, is so far only being read by Howie Kurtz.

14. Social conservatives are so flipped out about Rudy McRomney's shared apostasy that they aren't particularly focused on preemptively taking out Giuliani (as they did Colin Powell in 1995).

15. Giuliani displays the confidence, drive, and resoluteness he has for years and lots of Republicans like and respect that.

16. The economic conservative wing of the Republican Party is not as small as the Old Media (with its obsession with religious conservatives) would have you believe, and many of the economic conservative wing's leading members enjoy their peaceful strolls to dinner at Orso (on evenings when they have given the driver the night off).

17. Giuliani remains blissfully ignorant of what it takes to win the nomination, win the White House, and be president -- so his confidence is high and he is showing no weakness.

All of this and more will be discussed in a timely fashion in the first major public forum involving the senior campaign advisers to the top Republicans at Harvard University tonight.

Chris Henick of the Giuliani campaign, Rick Davis of the McCain campaign, and Alex Castellanos of the Romney campaign will speak at 6pm ET at the Kennedy School's fabled Forum.

Early in the day, those men will speak at a longer session with their colleagues, including Mike DuHaime and Ed Goeas (Giuliani), Bill McInturf, Brett O'Donnell, and Stuart Stevens (McCain), and Barbara Comstock, Alex Gage, and Ben Ginsberg (Romney) -- all under the watchful eye of some of America's leading political reporters.

The events are being hosted by the Institute of Politics and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy.

Back in Washington, DC, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee's national security panel, headed by Rep. John Tierney (D-NY), holds a 10:00 am ET hearing at Walter Reed Hospital.

Rep. John Murtha's (D-PA) subcommittee holds a 1:30 pm ET closed hearing no Walter Reed Hospital in Rayburn 2359. Today's hearing is expected to put the spotlight on the leadership of Lt. Gen. Kevin Kiley, who has served as the Army's top doctor since he gave up command of the hospital in 2004. "The hearing will allow Kiley to explain why bureaucratic tangles and horrid conditions made life so difficult for outpatients at the Army's premier hospital, while also likely putting him in a position of defending his job," reports the Washington Post's Josh White.LINK

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) holds a 430 pm news conference following his tour of Walter Reed Army Medical Center at the Senate Radio/TV gallery.

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) hold a 12:45 pm ET meeting with Los Angeles area law enforcement officials in Monterey Park, CA.

The top of the meeting will be open for a photo spray, followed by a press availability in front of the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department at approximately 1:30 pm ET. (Be on the lookout to see whether the former mayor gets asked about his son Andrew's weekend comments).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) holds a 9:00 am ET fundraiser in Grand Rapids, MI, and another in Detroit, MI at 5:00 pm ET. Both events are closed press.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is in Iowa today where she tours the research greenhouses of the Pioneer Hi-Bred International Facility at 11:30 am ET in Johnston. The Senator then speaks to Pioneer Hi-Bred International Facility employees at approximately 11:45 am ET.

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) holds an 8:00 pm ET rally at the Kerckhoff Patio at UCLA in Los Angeles, CA.

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) has an 8:30 am ET Democratic Party breakfast at the Chestnut Grill in Orangeburg, SC, speaks with students and faculty at Orangeburg-Calhoun Technical College at 11:00 am ET, and gives a 12:30 pm ET speech to the Orangeburg Kiwanis Club at Joe Fox's Restaurant. The Biden camp plans to announce this morning that the Delaware Democrat has been endorsed by state Sen. Gerald Malloy and state Rep. Jerry Govan. Both are members of the South Carolina Legislative Black Caucus.

In advance of a trip to Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico from March 8 -- 14, President Bush makes 1:15 pm ET remarks on Western Hemisphere policy to the 17th Annual Legislative Conference of the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, DC.

Vice President Cheney delivers 11:00 am ET remarks to the VFW's National Community Service/Legislative Convention at the Omni Shoreman hotel in Washington, D.C.

Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) holds a 2:30 pm ET media availability to discuss his bill prohibiting the use of funds for military operations in Iran without Congress' approval at the Senate Radio/TV gallery.

Former Sen. John Breaux (D-LA), who is considering a run for governor of Louisiana, moderates a 1:30 pm ET bipartisan discussion on the nation's healthcare system at 1:30 pm ET at the Washington Hilton & Towers. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) sits on the panel.

The National Constitution Center hosts a 6:30 pm ET discussion on the prospects of a woman president at the Annenberg Center for Education and Outreach in Philadelphia, PA. Participants include Eleanor Clift, Celinda Lake, Marie Wilson, Joe Trippi, and Renee Amoore.

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) delivers a 2:00 pm ET on immigration to the American Legion at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, DC.

A new partnership has been forged between the NAACP and ONE Campaign. The arrangement includes a ONE Campaign recruitment drive of 250,000 new ONE and NAACP members in targeted regions nationally, work with NAACP's over 1700 field chapters across America and a new "ONE-NAACP Task Force" of over 35,000 of the NAACP's leading grassroots leaders and activists for mobilization around the 2008 election and key policy making opportunities. The two groups will also join forces on a series of co-hosted forums, town halls and public meetings in important presidential caucus and primary and general election states and key legislative states and districts.

The Senate reconvenes at 1:30 pm ET and will be in a period of morning business until 3:00 pm ET. The chamber will then resume consideration of a bill (S 4) that would implement unfinished recommendations of the 9/11 Commission.

2008: Republicans: Giuliani:
"Giuliani insiders expect he will be forced to address his son's comments at a California appearance today with" Gov. Schwarzenegger, reports the New York Daily News' Saltonstall and Lisberg in their recap of ABC's "Good Morning America Weekend" interview with Andrew Giuliani. LINK

ABC News' Andrea Canning on Andrew Giuliani who is too busy with golf to help his father win the presidency.LINK

In a Sunday must-read, the Washington Post's Dan Balz wrote: "For many months, McCain has been seen as the closest thing there is to a front-runner in the Republican contest. But Giuliani has emerged not only as the popular choice for the GOP nomination but also as the Republican candidate who is currently most highly regarded by the American people -- Republicans, Democrats and independents alike."LINK

"The former mayor's campaign team believes it has found a credible path to the nomination. Its foundation is a conclusion that while the overwhelming majority of Republicans differ with Giuliani on abortion, gay rights and gun control, a much smaller percentage of GOP primary voters --