A Washington, D.C., Speculation Game

WASHINGTON, Nov. 30, 2004 — -- 51 Days Until Inauguration Day

So much is going on behind the scenes at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., NW regarding preparations for the State of the Union, the budget, pending personnel choices, policy rollout decisions, and even more.

And when announcements are made -- such as yesterday's Commerce pick -- they often happen with little or no advanced leaking, just the way the Leader of the Free World wants things to go.

Thus, keep in mind that the tips of icebergs we ARE seeing -- such as the announced personnel moves -- are -- yes, indeedy -- just the tips.

There is no clearer sign of how out of touch with the real America most people in Washington are – including/especially political reporters – than the fact that almost no one (t)here had heard of Carlos Gutierrez until yesterday.

If it is true that the Bush Administration has failed -- yet again -- to lure Stanford's John Cogan to DC for a job, that is probably the worst thing that has happened to the White House in quite some time.

(If you don't know why, we suggest a brisk Google search.)

Nifty Dick Stevenson of the New York Times has these two standout paragraphs in his Gutierrez coverage: LINK

"But he has little background in public policy, leaving him largely unknown in political circles and untested by the demands of a high-profile job in Washington . . . "

"People who know Mr. Gutierrez said that his views on economic issues closely tracked those of Mr. Bush, and that he was especially knowledgeable on trade, currency issues and the problems facing American manufacturers in a competitive global economy."

Mr. Stevenson also tells us to expect "as many as half a dozen additional departures" from the Cabinet.

(Note the extraordinary and uncharacteristic restraint we are exercising in making not a single breakfast cereal pun . . . )

"Gutierrez, whose appointment continues Bush aides' aggressive courting of Hispanics, is an unusual choice because Bush does not know him well and the post has traditionally gone to confidants of presidents," write the Washington Post's Mike Allen and Jonathan Weisman, who offer up interesting tidbits about the White House's recruitment difficulties for Cabinet posts and the perception of the role the economic team has played in the Bush Administration thus far -- which Karl Rove wants to change in this second round, according to the duo. We also love the demurring for Administration jobs by Gov. Pataki, done with a fabulously deft-but-subtle Beach Boys reference. LINK

Here's a link to the always delightful Ed Chen's write-up in the Los Angeles Times. LINK

As for the Man Next Door (Treasure Secretary John Snow): "White House press secretary Scott McClellan, however, declined Monday to address Snow's future, dismissing such talk as a 'Washington, D.C., speculation game.'"

USA Today's Richard Benedetto does a quick wrap of the issues -- mainly Iraq, beef, and lumber -- on the President's agenda as he heads to the Great White North. LINK

The Washington Post's Walter Pincus and Anthony Shadid make the rules for the upcoming Iraqi election sound a tad more complicated than the Iowa caucuses (typical paragraph: "Under the proportional representation system adopted, a party or political entity would win seats in the assembly based on the proportion of the nationwide vote it gathered. For example, if one party had a list of 50 candidates and gathered 10 percent of the overall vote, the top 27 candidates on its list would be in the 275-person assembly. Nine of them would have to be women."). LINK

But the identity of the Tom Beaumont of Iraq remains a mystery.

Various editorial boards today call for NOT delaying the Iraqi elections.

The New York Times leads its paper with Neil Lewis' acquisition of an International Committee of the Red Cross memo detailing American military use of "psychological and sometimes physical coercion 'tantamount to torture' on prisoners at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba." LINK

Or, as we call it, Example Number 345 since Election Day of stories that don't have the same bounce (at least in our crabbed little world) as they used to.

Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times on the careful diplomatic dance President Bush is performing over the Ukrainian election so as not to offend the soulful President Putin. LINK

Ukranian President Leonid Kuchma called for a new election on Monday, the Washington Post's Peter Finn reports, after the Supreme Court began examining the validity of the election and the parliament declared the runoff invalid. LINK

David Broder columnizes that we should expect surprises in the second Bush term (seems like a safeish bet to us) and that Tom Brokaw is a nice guy (seems right to us). LINK

Robert Pear of the New York Times is still digging around (thank you, Robert) that $388 billion omnibus spending bill and discovered that the National Science Foundation is going through some belt tightening. LINK

E.J. Dionne comes to the "how does one pay for the transition costs of Social Security reform?" ball all decked out in Bush quotes from 2000 -- which will surely make John Harwood very happy. LINK

Joe Trippi examines just what went wrong with the Democratic Party in the 2004 election, offering up some Burlington-infused suggestions for the party to get back on its feet (it's the base stupid; encourage grassroots growth; help labor; get a message), while Noting at the top that Kerry could never have gotten as far as he got if he weren't pushed by Howard Dean. LINK

Dems are keeping a close eye on how involved Sen. Kerry is with choosing the next DNC chairman, reading his participation -- i.e., his fervent backing of Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who's since begged off running -- as tea leaves for what he wants to do in 2008, reports Hans Nichols of The Hill. "Kerry's attempt to play kingmaker was met with a range of reactions, from polite courtesy to private derision, among lawmakers and aides," Nichols writes. LINK

The Associated Press reports that soon-to-be-former Congressman Frost, Leo Hindery, Howard Dean, and Donnie Fowler are all making phone calls in search of support for a possible DNC chair candidacy. And Wellington Webb is sending videos to state party chairs!!! LINK

In addition to Ohio, Green Party candidate David Cobb and Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik announced on Monday that they're seeking recounts in New Mexico and Nevada. LINK

David Brooks columnizes about John Stott, who is almost certainly going to have television bookers calling him up very very soon. LINK

(Note to those bookers: try reaching him through his publisher: LINK)

The Wall Street Journal's Robert Greenberger reports that the Supreme Court on Monday declined to review the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court decision to legalize same-sex marriage, which means that while the state will continue to allow same-sex marriages, lawmakers could put it to a statewide vote by referendum in 2006. LINK

The New York Times takes a look too. LINK

Some conservative groups are casting a wary eye on Sen. Rick Santorum's support for his Pennsylvania colleague, Sen. Arlen Specter, as they look toward 2006, reports The Hill's Geoff Earle. LINK

Bret Schundler is back in the Garden State gubernatorial game. LINK

"Republican Dino Rossi becomes Washington's governor-elect when Secretary of State Sam Reed certifies the election this morning, and the Democrats have until Friday to demand a costly hand recount -- which right now they don't have the money for," writes Chris McGann of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. LINK

Yesterday's Note included lots to digest about the Los Angeles mayor's race; today we'll key off of the New York Times' Michael Slackman's write up of Gifford Miller's opening salvo (Note Note: there are more opening salvos to come, no doubt), which includes this line that Mandy Grunwald won't find all that amusing.

"The theme was received well, even though many people who said they were supporters of the speaker also said they were, at best, uncertain of his prospects in a primary or a general election." LINK

Question to all Democrats running for mayor of New York: Does the same polling at which you are all looking that tells you to beat up on Bloomberg for being a Republican also tell you that the Blue State/Red State argument is going to assuage New Yorkers concerns about trash transfer stations, overcrowded classrooms, MTA fare hikes (Yes, we know the mayor has no control over this, but he/she still gets the blame . . . ), and a West Side stadium?

Also in the New York political arena . . . Did a political strategist with close ties to George Pataki use his NY1 News television appearance last night to set the timetable for an announcement from the Governor on his political future? It sounded very much to our ears that within a few weeks after the holidays we can expect Governor Pataki's intentions (a reelection campaign for Albany's top job, a Senate battle against Sen. Clinton, or a 2008 White House run) will be very obvious to all. Hmmmm . . .

Josh Kurtz of Roll Call writes that Rep. Anthony Weiner will model his New York mayoral campaign after that of Ed Koch, casting himself as a "'five-borough fighter.'" His fourth-place standing in the Quinnipiac University Nov. 5-8 seems to work with the whole under-the-radar strategy. Read all the way to the end for Kurtz's smart analysis of the field and the players.

The Boston Globe looks at why the Manchester, NH airport is so darn busy. LINK

In our very rare "news about us" section today, we bring you this item from the Washington Post's stunningly ahead-of-the-curve Richard Leiby, who Notes in his must-read Reliable Source column: LINK

"The race is over, let the books begin: Random House will announce today that it has signed Mark Halperin, creator of ABC News's "The Note," and John F. Harris, a Washington Post national correspondent, to write what the publisher bills as a "behind-the-scenes analysis of the Republican Party's quest for dominance and the Democratic Party's efforts to recover from the defeats of 2000 and 2004." We're told the authors will focus on the influence of such players as Karl Rove and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. No title yet, but publication is expected in time for the 2006 midterm elections."