The Note: Dynamic Scoring
— -- WASHINGTON, March 7 --
NEWS SUMMARY
Was it a good weekend for President Bush's efforts to create personal retirement accounts carved out of the existing Social Security system and funded by payroll taxes?
Although no Democrat has broken ranks (quite the contrary) and the polling data is still mostly discouraging for the White House, there are some favorable signs:
-- The pressure seems mostly off the White House to come up with details of its own (And, remember, the details, when they get to benefit cuts and/or tax increases, are NOT going to be lovely; better to leave them to the "legislative process.").
-- The Gang of 500's instant-gratification sensibility -- which ten days ago was demanding absolute, total achievement (progress would not be enough) -- has been mind altered; the press is now in this for the long(er) haul, buying Andy Card and Dan Bartlett some time. (If you didn't feel the paradigm shifting around you, please recalibrate the sensitivity settings of your CW Sensors.)
-- The political debate arena is mostly filled these days with discussions about the Presiden't #1 domestic priority.
-- No Republican (let alone a leader) went off the reservation this weekend.
-- Judy Keen and Andrea Stone of USA Today seem very impressed that the White House is leading three conference calls every morning with its allies on the matter.
-- Some Republican leaders -- in high Tom-Sawyer/fence-whitewashing mode -- think they are near smoking Democrats out and making them offer their own specific plans (before the President does!!!).
-- There's a Roll Call report that "An internal RNC memo on Social Security outreach plans for this week calls for GOP activists and volunteers to 'bolster and support Republican town halls by driving supporters and saturating local media' while also 'bracket[ing] Democrat town halls and events with research documents and statements, op-eds, letter-to-the-editor programs, supporters, radio and television.'"
-- On "Meet," Kate O'Beirne -- sounding like Brian Jones on steroids -- was more bullish than the Beltway Boys and Mitch McConnell combined with this on-message riff:
"They're encouraged by polls this week, showing large majorities, some 65 to 72 percent saying, you know, Social Security really does have a serious fiscal problem. They see some movement on the part of Democrats who are now saying, 'Well, maybe there are some things we ought to be doing.' And they're also encouraged by polls showing a narrowing in the gap on the question of which party you trust on Social Security. Democrats have long had a very big advantage there, but it's getting narrower so the Republicans are feeling a little more confident."
To be sure (and this is, in case it wasn't clear to you, our "to be sure" paragraph), the White House effort is still in at least a bit of trouble, with (even) some (Republicans) believing that this might be one of those gag Rubik's Cubes that can't be solved.
Although much ink has been spilled on Social Security in the last 72 hours, there is only one must read on the topic: Dick Stevenson's super-balanced, super-sophisticated New York Times piece that explains why the only available (semi)bipartisan compromise seems to involve splitting a baby.
Stevenson reports on the tough-to-find Middle Ground:
"To Republicans and other supporters of Mr. Bush's approach, the obvious middle ground would be to create private investment accounts out of the existing payroll tax, as the White House wants, and then combine that with steps to ensure that low-income and perhaps middle-class workers and retirees come out ahead, giving the final package a progressive cast." LINK
Too much polarization, natch, is preventing both sides from reaching it, he writes.
"On Sunday, senior members of both parties said they were willing to negotiate -- if the other side would give way on private accounts. Democrats suggested they would be willing to negotiate a package of benefit cuts and tax increases to assure Social Security's long-term solvency if the president dropped his demand for private accounts financed by the payroll tax. Administration officials said private accounts along the lines the president wants had to be part of any deal, but that beyond that, they were open to Democratic ideas."
Stevenson gives a sentence to Sen. Chuck Hagel's proposal but doesn't even explain what it entails!
Today, Sen. Chuck Hagel formally introduces his plan to fix Social Security. He does the honors in Lincoln, Nebraska and then has a 4:00 pm ET press conference on the Hill.
More on all this below, in our sleek Social Security section.
At 10:50 am ET, the President welcomes the King and Queen of Norway at the White House. The President then flies to Pittsburgh, PA, touring the Providence Family Support System and then speaking at Allegheny County Community College at 3:50 pm ET. He returns to the White House by Wheel of Fortune time.
At 1:15 pm ET, Democrats as disparate as Sen. Ted Kennedy and Sen. Mark Pryor join ACORN and other liberal groups for a rally against Social Security privitization/personal accounts on Capitol Hill.
Today, the Senate continues to debate the comprehensive bankruptcy reform legislation. Republicans are confident it will pass this week, barring poison bills. The Senate may also vote today on proposals to raise the minimum wage, although none are expected to pass by most odds setters.
The House convenes at noon for a pro forma session.
At 10:00 am ET, the Supreme Court (minus its Chief Justice) issues orders and decisions.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers the opening remarks at the New York Republican Party's annual Lincoln Day dinner in Manhattan at 7:00 pm ET. At 9:00 pm ET, he sits down to tape an interview with Fox's Hannity and Colmes. He also has a closed press fundraiser at the historic and swank 21 Club.
Tomorrow, President Bush speaks at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, and then greets his father and President Clinton at the White House.
Wednesday, the President travels to Ohio and pitches energy reform legislation. Louisville, KY and Montgomery, AL get presidential visits and Social Security discussions on Thursday. Memphis, TN and Shreveport, LA get them on Friday, and the Gridiron dinner gets to laugh with the President on Saturday.
Tomorrow, Los Angeles holds what will probably be the first round of its mayoral elections, and there is a chance that Mayor Jim Hahn will not survive to the run-off. California's 5th congressional district holds a non-partisan primary election to fill the vacancy left by the death of Rep. Bob Matsui. The National Associaton of Evangelicals begins a three-day meeting in Orlando, FL. And the Federal Election Commission also meets.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan addresses the Council on Foreign Relations' Annual Corporate Conference.
Social Security: the politics:
The Los Angeles Times' Richard Simon curtain-raises the Social Security plan that Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is planning to introduce today, which calls for raising the retirement age by a year, and offers a good re-cap of all the Social Security talk on the Sunday shows. LINK
USA Today's Judy Keen and Andrea Stone report that President Bush, undaunted by the seemingly increasing opposition to his Social Security plan, is still aggressively courting Republican lawmakers and Democrats with his sales pitch, and pushing the idea via the grassroots, appearances by Vice President Cheney, the Treasury Department war room, and conference calls to keep everything organized and everyone on the same page. LINK
The Stone-Keen duo check out the scene on the road show. LINK
The Boston Globe's Susan Milligan writes that congressional Democrats don't appear to be budging from their united position against President Bush's Social Security plan, and on yesterday's talk shows, some key Dem leaders said they're not open to negotiation.LINK
And the Globe's Michael Kranish writes that the White House is considering "shutting off the exemption from Social Security taxes of future state and local public employees who otherwise would be contributing to public pension plans" to fix Social Secuirty. LINK
David Kirkpactrick and Carl Hulse Note that Sen. Joe Lieberman was one of 44 Dem. Senators to sign a letter opposing private accounts financed by reducing current benefits, write that some liberals in Connecticut are unhappy with his refusal to lob partisan granades, they crush the Paul Newman balloon, and find a Democratic Senator (without name attached) to assess Lieberman's caution and Lindsey Graham to praise his candor. LINK
On Sunday, the Washington Post's Chuck Babington and Jim VandeHei outlined the alternative plans to overhaul Social Security that some Republican lawmakers named Hagel and Graham are talking about, in an effort to broaden the conversation and move the Democrats off their staunch opposition. To re-cap: Sen. Graham supports raising the cap on wages that can be taxed for Social Security. Hagel favors reducinig benefits for some retirees and having the government borrow to get the individual accounts rolling. Sen. Robert Bennett has a plan to put benefits on a sliding scale -- i.e., a benefit cut. LINK
On Sunday, the Los Angeles Times' Joel Havemann looked at how important the Social Security trust fund and the IOUs for the money the federal government has issued for money it has taken from it, have become in the overhaul debate. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Janet Hook on Sunday took an excellent look at how the President's plan is splintering factions within his own party, and lays out the groups that have formed as a result. LINK
Newsweek's Holly Bailey, Richard Wolffe and Tamara Lipper look at how effective the extension of the BC04 campaign on Social Security could be, as they look mysteriously like an effort to shore up the base rather than to convert followers. LINK
Note the leaked Santorum memo and the question of whether the focus needs to be on reassuring older Americans or energizing younger ones -- as well as the question of how to talk about all this in the context of retirement security (and the President's interesting word choices on the stump on Friday . . . )
The Las Vegas Review-Journal picked up on the Democrats' Social Security road show "fix it, don't nix it" name.LINK
On Sunday, Lee Bandy Noted what a good relationship Democrats have with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). LINK
Tom Rath is still keen on Social Security reform. LINK
Marc Sandalow analyzes a basic question: do Bush voters really want Social Security reform? LINK
"News stories asserting that President Bush's proposal to create personal Social Security investment accounts is losing ground with voters and in Congress are greatly exaggerated, say lawmakers and policy strategists who support the president's plan," the Washington Times Don Lambro writes. LINK
Well, maybe . . .
Chairman of the (Fed) Board:
The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein is in high dudgeon over Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's comments last week that legislation that expands the budget deficit is unsustainable -- and sidesteps the role that Greenspan's support for tax cuts had in creating the deficit. LINK
"Greenspan really earned a place in the annals of chutzpah when he raised the impending costs of baby boom retirements as a principal reason why Washington should tackle its deficits. It isn't exactly a news bulletin that large numbers of baby boomers will be retiring at the end of this decade, or that this will swell the costs of Medicare and Social Security."
"These trends were well known when Greenspan endorsed tax cuts in 2001. And yet by doing so, he helped sabotage America's best chance to reduce the burden of those costs for future generations."
That's not quite calling him a "political hack," but it is awfully close.
The Wall Street Journal's editorial board defends Greenspan, and criticizes those who criticize him.
On the front page of Saturday's Washington Post, Dana Milbank and Nell Henderson offered up a good overview of the partisan controversy -- and accusations -- surrounding Greenspan, with some Democrats crying foul that he's gone to the dark side -- or at least gotten too involved in fiscal policy -- because they feel betrayed by his support for tax cuts during President Bush's tenure. LINK
Note that some Sunday morning Democrats were unwilling to back up Leader Reid's harsh characterization of last week.
Taxes: the politics:
The Washington Post's Jim VandeHei looks at how the tax-cut agenda has been edged to the back burner for Republican lawmakers by the other priorities of Social Security, Medicare, and the Pentagon. There's still talk of making the first-term tax cuts permanent, but it's not nearly so loud. LINK
Economist Laurence Kotlikoff floats a consumption tax on prime WSJ op-ed real estate:
"The bottom line is that our tax rates remain far too high and continue to generate a very large efficiency loss from taxation. The introduction of a consumption tax would broaden the tax base, significantly reduce tax rates, and improve economic efficiency. The efficiency gain comes not just from lowering rates; it also comes from effectively taxing something whose supply can't be distorted. That something is the existing stock of wealth."
Big casino budget politics:
The President's proposed pare-down of agricultural subsidies represent the first time in years the federal government has gotten serious about "restructuring the farm program," an economist tells the Wall Street Journal's Sara Schaeffer Munoz. The resulting battle lines are shaping up between Sens. Grassley and Chambliss.
And some small-lot farmers aren't too unhappy with the proposed cuts: "Some small farmers say lowering the payments would bring indirect benefits, such as protection against being gobbled up by large farms. Ferd Hoefner, who represents the Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, a group of organizations that includes small and midsize farms and conservation groups that work with them, said farm subsidies have spurred a rise in land prices, making it harder for small and midsize producers to expand. According to data from the Agriculture Department, subsidies can increase farm land values by 15% to 25%, depending on the region, Mr. Hoefner said."
Iowa farmer Mark Leonard makes a cameo.
Friday's CBO numbers casting doubt on the Bush budget has given congressional Democrats a new jump-start on their criticism of the President's budget and the deficit. LINK
2008:
An unsourced (but to us, an obviously sourced) item in Bob Novak's weekend grab bag has Sen. Trent Lott lecturing Rudy Giuliani on the difference for Southerners between gay marriage and civil unions (i.e., there is none). LINK
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist got good press for his weekend stop in Manchester. LINK
In Carl Hulse's New York Times article about the gathering legions for the fillibuster/nuclear option fight, the Family Research Council's Tony Perkins warns Sen. Bill Frist: get those judicial nominees on the bench or else . . . LINK
The Boston Globe's Raphael Lewis reports that Gov. Romney's time spent outside Massachusetts last year in public appearances, fund-raisers and $750,000 in direct mail resulted in nearly $220,000 in campaign donations. California and Maryland topped the list of generous states. LINK
On Sunday, the Boston Globe's Nina Easton examined the Romney family political legacy. LINK
We first saw Mitt Romney's Sunday op-ed on stem cells on conservative Web sites, all with favorable remarks. LINK
Congratulations on that 4 ½-hour time in the Little Rock Marathon, Gov. Huckabee. And to you, Gov. Vilsack, chugging in right behind him. LINK
Newsweek sat down for a Q&A with President George H.W. Bush, who had some very interesting things to say about his tsunami relief effort with President Clinton and the 2008 presidential race, in which he expects Sen. Hillary Clinton to run and Gov. Jeb Bush not to. LINK
Sen. Clinton will keynote the Minnesota Democratic Party's Hubert Humphrey Day Dinner on April 9. LINK
The New York Daily News' Helen Kennedy Notes that Sen. Clinton was coy about a potential run even in India, and that she doesn't seem to poll well nationally with working-class white males. LINK
The Boston Herald's Andrew Miga Notes Sen. Kennedy said on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" that he's still a Kerry man, even if his friend Sen. Clinton makes the race. LINK
One of the first 2008 endorsements, we say!!!!
Fired-up Kansas and Missouri Democrats reacted very favorably to Sen. John Edwards. LINK and LINK
The Washington Blade Notes that Gov. Mark Warner has said he'll sign a bill to repeal th Virginia law that prohibits most private companies from offering health benefits to domestic partners of employees. LINK
Did Roll Call's HOH hear Sen. George Allen cussin'? Did he really say that he doesn't care about Community Development Block Grants? LINK
Dean and the Democrats:
You may have wondered why you haven't seen DNC chair Howard Dean debate RNC chair Ken Mehlman face-to-face yet. Or why Gov. Dean has largely eschewed the national political press corps since becoming chair.
Part of it, according to Democrats familiar with the strategy, is that Dean simply doesn't have the time or inclination to sit for interviews right now. He has a party to build, staff to hire, Red states to visit, and lots of money to raise.
But part of it is a lesson that Republicans taught Dean well: if the national press corps is wedded to a certain view of you, such as as your alleged propensity to say things that get you in trouble, simply bypass that filter. Dean has taped at least a half dozen interviews with local television stations in the three weeks he's been chair and has made himself available to local newspaper reporters and columnists.
And so far, it's largely worked. The local press has been less aggressive about questioning whether in-state Democrats are rushing to embrace Dean, and Dean has received a trough full of good press clips in Red states.
The local strategy is also designed to make it more difficult for Republicans to bash Democrats in states Dean visits, and by aggressively courting the local press corps, he creates good will that he hopes will help him down the road.
The upshot: do not expect to see Dean debate Mehlman any time soon.
Roll Call's Chris Cillizza reports that Dean is heading to the Hill this week to meet separately with Democratic Senators at the Senate Democratic luncheon tomorrow and House members at the House Democratic Caucus' meeting on Wednesday, where he is expected to focus on reinvigorating the party.
In a Washington Post op-ed on Sunday, TNR's Peter Beinart outlines Gov. Dean's agenda in reaching out to veterans as a Democratic core constituency, as Republicans have gone after and claimed some African-American and Hispanic votes, and Notes that Dems are behind the 8-ball when recruiting true diversity -- i.e., different points of view as well as faiths and ethnicities. LINK
The Washington Post's Brian Faler previews the Tuesday launch of DemsTV.com, the 20-minute video equivalent of a blog, according to Dan Manatt, one of its producers. Oppo in real time as a TV show! LINK
On Sunday, the Washington Post's Dan Balz and Mike Allen offered a mini behind-the-scenes look at a closed-door duke-out between Sens. Kerry and Reid, with Kerry insisting Democrats need to be more aggressive in fighting President Bush and need a plan to take down his Social Security overhaul. Reid responded that the war room was already in place, thank you very much. LINK
California politics:
The New York Times' John Broder has a good overview of the Los Angeles mayor's race for East Coasters. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Jessica Garrison and Mark Barabak find voters uncertain. LINK
But not for lack of trying among the candidates trying to give them a reason to cast their ballots, write the Los Angeles Times' Michael Finnegan and Patrick McGreevey. LINK
The Washington Post's Amy Argetsinger offers an overview of the Los Angeles mayor's race -- a good primer for those catching up, and a sense of the high-wire Mayor James Hahn faces. LINK
The Boston Globe's Steve Carney looks at the tough opponents Hahn faces heading into tomorrow's primary election, writing that the incumbent has alienated two key constituencies: African-Amercians and suburbanites. LINK
The New York Times' Dean Murphy tries to figure out why a rich, untethered multi-millionare (Gov. Schwarzenegger, that is) needs to spend so much time raising money but we're unsure whether the Gov's stated goals -- all publicly defined -- would be accomplished without it. LINK
Mark Martin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Gov. Schwarzenegger's pitches and ideas aren't easier to sell this year, as some argue that the issues he's selling aren't what voters care about. And while polls show that voters trust him, he's spending political capital to push his agenda. LINK
At his bodybuilding competition over the weekend, the Governator pledged to do more to combat steroid use, and talked further about his agenda for California's budget and politics. LINK
The other major mayoral race of 2005:
A "top Democrat" soon to advise Freddy Ferrer unburdens himself to Fred Dicker. LINK
Judicial politics:
Bob Novak boils down on why, precisely, conservatives remain irritated with Sen. Arlen Specter:
"Specter, on his own, picked William Myers, a former cattle industry lobbyist, as the nominee blocked by Democrats in the last Congress who will go first in the new Congress. He did so because he figured that Myers, among 16 blocked Bush appellate nominees, had the best chance to get 60 votes needed to break a filibuster. But, as Specter is well-aware, the Republican Party is not interested in confirming judges with 60 votes. It wants to re-establish the constitutional principle that a simple majority of 51 votes is sufficient for confirmation." LINK
"This creates a peculiar situation, with control of the federal judiciary, especially the Supreme Court, at stake. The last outcome the Republican leadership wants would be a filibuster against Myers broken by 60 senators voting for cloture. That precedent would restrict what kind of Bush Supreme Court nominee could get through the Senate. Republican leaders want to use parliamentary procedures to confirm judges with a simple majority -- the so-called ''nuclear option.'"
A Wall Street Journal editorial seeks to remind Sen. Robert Byrd of his fillibusterian past, gently rebukes Sen. Specter for trying to "delay an inevitable confrontation," Notes that Democrats seem to oppose William Myers because he was once an industry lobbyist, and calls Sen. Salazar of Colorado a "disappointment" for allegedly changing his views on Senate procedure.
Iraq, the Middle East, and National Security:
The New York Times' Michael Moss, who last brought his laser-like reporting eye to election administration issues, has a long take-out on the even longer and bump-studded road to up-armoring troop vehicles in Iraq. LINK
Newsweek's Howard Fineman breaks down the various partisan reactions by those who just can't bring themselves to be overly congratulatory about U.S.-friendly developments in the Middle East. LINK
The Los Angeles Times' talented Tyler Marshall looks at Sens. Kennedy and Durbin seeming to force themselves to say optimistic things about Iraq, brining a smile to Karl Rove's face (sort of). LINK
Politics:
On Saturday, the Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein looks at how redistricting in Texas, and now in Georgia and debated in California, is igniting a political battle as Democrats flirt with retaliating with their own re-sketch of congressional districts. LINK
"Such an upsurge in partisan conflict over redistricting, in turn, could provide momentum for efforts to shift control over the process from elected officials to nonpartisan panels. That idea is moving up the agenda in two of the nation's most populous states, with Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger advancing it in California and Democrats promoting it in Florida."
The Washington Post's Tom Edsall uses lots of ominous words to describe the quarreling factions at last week's AFL-CIO meeting, not to mention the state of organized labor overall as leaders weigh whether to try to shore up their own organizational structure or to put more money into defeating Republicans in political campaigns. LINK
Potpourri:
Garrett Graff a. k. a. "Stretch Junior" joins the White House press corps for a day. We knew him when . . . like when we assigned him to quickly digest a steamy Lynne Cheney novel moments before Mrs. Cheney's husband was announced as the vice presidential pick of Gov. Bush. Mr. Graff didn't complain . . . LINK
Elisabeth Bumiller reviews the President's recent movie choices; Hotel Rwanda, Paper Clips, and The Aviator.LINK
Humorist Hart Seely proposes that Dick Cheney host the Oscars.LINK
Editor and Publisher says it has the leaked Pulitzer list, or most of it. LINK (The Des Moines Register, Frank Rich, Ron Brownstein are allegedly top finalists, and congratulations to them all.)
The Pew Research Center is out with a new report with interesting news for everyone wondering when the Internet would finally become an integrated and integral part of the campaign process.
The answer: it did in 2004. Seventy-five million Americans used the Internet to get political news and information, debate and discuss candidates or participate directly in the 2004 campaign. A new poll by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and the Pew Research Center for The People & The Press shows major growth not only among those who say they got their news and political information online (29 percent, up from 18 percent in 2000), but also among those who say the Internet is their primary source of news about the presidential campaign (18 percent of registered voters, up from 11 percent in 2000).
Here's one for the MSM:
"The new survey shows that for online Americans, the internet is now a more important source of campaign news and information than radio. For those with broadband at home (a group comprising 27% of the overall U.S. population) the internet rivals newspapers as a major source of campaign news and information: 38% of those with broadband at home cited the internet as a major source of political news, compared to 36% of them who cited newspapers."
AP has more: LINK
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