Behind the Scenes: How ABC News Reports Elections

Nov. 4, 2006 — -- It will be up to ABC News' Decision Desk to project the winners of the races on Election Day -- but before they do, all the facts and numbers go through a thorough process of analysis and reporting to bring out the story behind each race.

A large part of the projection process is data analysis. The incoming data vary by state and can include exit poll data, vote data in sample precincts, county vote data and telephone poll data on absentees. That, combined with the information and analysis from past elections, is fed into various statistical models that produce a probability of who is going to win.

But the Decision Desk also relies on the expertise of its staffers.

"Our guiding principle," Decision Desk director Dan Merkle says, "is that it's more important that we get it right than to be first."

Once a projection is made on each race, the Decision Desk communicates the result immediately to the various divisions of ABC News.

As far as data collection are concerned, ABC News is part of the National Election Pool with the AP, CBS News, CNN, Fox and NBC News.

The six news organizations made a joint decision to hire Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (which, for the purpose of the election, serve as one entity) to conduct exit polls. The NEP oversees how the polling is conducted and works together on what gets covered and how. Additionally, the AP has been hired to do the county vote tabulation.

Once the data are distributed to the news organizations, it becomes their prerogative how to individually use it for projections and analysis.

One major change by the NEP from the 2004 election cycle is the introduction of an exit poll quarantine until 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Prior to this election cycle, networks and other media organizations were able to start viewing exit poll data in the early afternoon, though they were largely considered inconclusive because it arrived so early in the day. During the 2004 election, with the rise of the Internet and blogosphere, much of the early exit poll data were reported (inaccurately) online, which dominoed into considerable chatter across the World Wide Web about the results of the election when, in actuality, it was too early to draw conclusions.