Michigan GOP Makes Mitt Romney's Night

Jan. 15, 2008 — -- Conservatives, mainline Republicans and family history made it Mitt Romney's day in Michigan, underscoring the fractured nature of the 2008 Republican presidential race as he became the third GOP winner in the first three high-profile contests.

In addition to restoring the former Massachusetts governor's fortunes, the outcome underscored Arizona Sen. John McCain's challenges of translating support centered on independents and moderates in a party dominated by conservatives and mainline Republicans. It again showed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to have a weaker lock on evangelicals than he enjoyed in Iowa. And it made former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani look less formidable than ever.

Among other factors, Romney benefited from his roots in the state where he was born and his father, a former American Motors chairman, was governor from 1963 to 1969. Forty-two percent described his family ties to Michigan as at least somewhat important in their vote; he won them by a huge margin, with 58 percent to McCain's 17 percent.

In 2000, McCain won the state on a surge of independents and Democrats voting in the GOP contest (that's allowed in Michigan); that year only 48 percent of Republican primary voters were Republicans. This yea,r it didn't happen: Sixty-eight percent of voters were Republican regulars, and they supported Romney by 41-27 percent over McCain, with 17 percent for Huckabee.

McCain won independents by 6 points, but they accounted for just 25 percent of voters, vs. 35 percent in 2000. He also prevailed by 8 points among Democratic crossover voters. But there were fewer of them, too; suggestions that they'd vote in the Republican race given the lack of a real Democratic contest were not borne out. Just 7 percent of GOP voters were Democrats, down from 17 percent in 2000.

Ideology told a similar story: Conservatives upped their share of the turnout to 56 percent, 11 points higher than in 2000, and they, too, went for Romney, 41-23 percent, with 20 percent for Huckabee. McCain won moderates, 40-34 percent; again there were too few.