A rift has emerged inside the Republican campaign with loyalists lining up behind Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., against Alaksa Gov. Sarah Palin, reports ABC News' George Stephanopoulos.
(Reuters/AP Photo)
Officials from both the Obama and McCain campaigns tell ABC News they believe there is very little that either candidate can do to change the trajectory of the race.
Unless one of them makes a major mistake, nothing they can say or do will affect them one way or the other.
Now, it's all about turnout and momentum.
Barack Obama is leading McCain 52-45 in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
The only thing the Obama campaign is worried about right now is voter complacency, over-confidence, or that the idea that Obama is winning somehow energizes and mobilizes Republican voters.
Pennsylvania is the only big Democratic-leaning state than McCain has a chance of turning around now, although he trails Obama 53-40 in the latest Pennsylvania poll by Morning Call/Muhlenberg College.
If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.
That's very, very tough for McCain to do.
The only way he has more paths to 270 electoral votes is if he can flip Pennsylvania and turn it around -- that would give him more leeway.
If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.
Even that is a necessary but not sufficient condition for him. That shows what he's up against because he's behind in all four of these key battleground states right now.
Even more dire for McCain, the Republicans even started to advertise this week in Montana, which should be a solid Republican state.
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