How the Numbers Stack Up As Primaries End
A weekly wrap on the state of the '08 presidential race.
June 1, 2008 — -- Confused by Saturday's Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting?
Not sure how Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., can be on the verge of wrapping up the nomination even as Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is expected to win another primary on Sunday?
Think this is the end, but not sure?
Here is a simple list of things to keep in mind as we enter the final 48 hours of the Democratic nominating contest. Numbers 1-10 explain the math. Letters A-E are nonmathematical things at play.
*All delegate numbers are as of the start of the day on Sunday*
1. Both the Florida and Michigan delegations will be seated in full at the Democrats' convention in Denver with each delegate limited to half (1/2) a vote. LINK
2. Clinton gained 94.5 delegates, according to ABC News' estimate, under Saturday's agreement.
3. Obama gained 65.5 delegates, according to the ABC News' estimate under Saturday's DNC agreement.
4. The number of delegates needed to secure the Democratic presidential nomination changed yesterday from 2,026 to 2,118.
5. ABC News estimates that Obama has 2,050.5 delegates. (That's 67.5 delegates shy of victory.)
6. ABC News estimates Clinton has 1,872.5 delegates.
7. There are 86 pledged delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana.
8. Team Obama expects to win around 38 delegates from the final 3 contests, putting them 30 superdelegates away from the nomination.
9. Roughly 200 superdelegates remain uncommitted.
10. The person who reaches 2,118 delegates will become the presumptive Democratic nominee.
A. Clinton supporters are just as loud and enthusiastic as Obama supporters. LINK
B. Clinton knows the end is near. LINK
C. A large number of uncommitted superdelegates may commit on Monday and Tuesday.
D. What's RED is BLUE, what's BLUE is RED LINK
E. Clinton's nuclear option -- The Credentials Committee, which meets August in Denver. LINK
IN THE PAPERS:
With protesters disrupting the proceedings during the public vote, Democratic Party officials defied Clinton's wishes Saturday, agreeing to seat the full delegations from Florida and Michigan to the August nominating convention, but with only half a vote.
"The deal was reached after committee members deliberated for nine hours, including three where they met privately and argued fiercely over their eventual deal, according to several people inside. They voted in front of a raucous hotel ballroom that frequently interrupted proceedings and reflected deep divisions within the party," write the Associated Press' Nedra Pickler and Beth Fouhy.
Top Clinton aide Harold Ickes lead the dissent among the Clinton-leaning committee members, expressing particular concern about the way the DNC allocated delegates from Michigan, where Obama's name didn't even appear on the ballot.
"This motion will hijack -- hijack -- remove four delegates won by Hillary Clinton," said Ickes. "This body of 30 individuals has decided that they're going to substitute their judgment for 600,000 voters," he added in a fiery assault on the Michigan Democratic Party idea of giving Clinton 69 Michigan delegates and Obama 59. Ickes wasn't done, either. One final bolt of lightening: "Mrs. Clinton has told me to reserve her right to take this to the Credentials Committee."
The Credentials Committee, of course, meets in August at the convention.
Storming ahead, an Obama advisor signaled their campaign is not worried about Ickes' warning.
Will Obama wait for a concession call from Clinton before claiming victory?
"He's not going to wait by the phone like a high-school girl waiting for a date," said advisor Anita Dunn, per ABC's Teddy Davis and Karen Travers. "That's not Barack Obama."
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