New Poll Shows Obama Lead in Crucial States

Sept. 11, 2008— -- If there are three states that are the most crucial in the November presidential election, they will likely be Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Since 1960, no candidate has ever won the presidency without winning two of these three battleground states.

Republican Sen. John McCain is leading handily in Florida and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama has narrow leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to polls released today by Quinnipiac University.

While McCain has surged in national polls, the ones that really count are those in swing states that will decide which candidate wins the votes in the Electoral College. As Democrat Al Gore demonstrated, it is possible to win the popular vote and lose the election.

The Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a 5 percent edge, 49-44, in Ohio. Obama has an even narrower 48-45 lead in Pennsylvania, while McCain has comfortable 50-42 margin in Florida.

"It's a close race. It's likely to go down to the wire," ABC News' senior Washington correspondent, George Stephanopoulos, told "Good Morning America" today.

"If you're going to pay attention to one state this year, it's got to be Ohio," Stephanopoulos said. "No Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio."

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It was a state that President George W. Bush won by a mere 100,000 votes four years ago, and both Obama and McCain are concentrating on Ohio this year.

"The Obama campaign has ramped up their turnout operation, particularly in the big cities and college campuses, but the McCain campaign hopes that the pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will energize their voters, particularly in southern Ohio," Stephanopoulos said. Sen. Hillary Clinton, who won the Democratc primary in Ohio, will campaign for Obama in the state this weekend.

A new Time/CNN poll surveyed several other key states and found both candidates were holding their own in states their parties won in previous elections. Obama was leading in New Hampshire (51-45) and in Michigan (49-45), both states won by Democrat John Kerry four years ago.

McCain is ahead in Virginia (50-46) and in Missouri (50-45), states Bush won in 2004.