McCain Tries for Another Come-From-Behind Victory

Oct. 22, 2008 — -- The math is looking ominous for Sen. John McCain.

With 13 days before the election, polls in varying degrees show a growing national lead for his Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama.

The polls are also showing a more pronounced tilt toward Obama in battleground states, where the election will likely be decided.

Barring a highly irregular electoral realignment, McCain needs a surge over the next 13 days that would propel him to sweep a string of five or six key states where he is now tied or behind in the polls. Lose any one of those states and his bid for the White House could be over.

"It's very much an uphill battle," Michael Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center, told ABCNews.com.

Dimock, whose own poll gave Obama a 14 point lead nationally on Tuesday, said many of the states still being contested "have been reliably 'red' in the past, so I don't think it's an impossibility."

Nathan Gonzales, the political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, was more pessimistic for McCain.

"McCain is facing extremely long odds with time running out," Gonzales said. "He has to win a number of states where he's not even leading in or tied in right now."

Compounding McCain's problems is the fact that voting has begun in several key states, and if McCain "were able to change the game over the next 10 days, those votes have already been cast," Gonzales said.

McCain was scheduled to join forces today with running mate Sarah Palin for a couple of stops in Pennsylvania, a state where he is trailing in the polls but which is seen as a must-win.

He is also expected to get reinforcements today from "Joe the Plumber," the Ohio plumber who became famous earlier this month for confronting Obama over his plan to raise taxes for families who make over $250,000 annually. He's expected to make an appearance at at least one McCain campaign stop in Ohio.

McCain needs the help.

An analysis by ABC News political unit of data in a ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll has found that in 30 "red" states that President Bush won by 14 percentage points in 2004, McCain and Obama are now dead even.

More significantly, in 16 states identified as presidential battlegrounds, Obama has a hefty 54-43 percent lead, according to ABC News' analysis.

McCain is now trying to pick his spots among those battleground states to find some formula for reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the White House.

ABC News' electoral map, based on CQ Politic's analysis, indicates that Obama has polling leads in enough states to collect 291 electoral votes.

McCain, according to the CQ map, is leading in enough states to give him 174 electoral votes.