In Arizona, Democrats Bet On an Action Hero

—Feb. 27, 2012 -- All eyes are on Arizona ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary, but there's another, non-presidential race in the Grand Canyon State that could matter. This one features Democrats.

Republican senator John Kyl is retiring after his third term, and the race for his seat signifies Democrats' most ambitious, yet plausible, attempt to pick up a GOP-held Senate seat.

The Democratic party establishment's favored candidate was personally handpicked and recruited by President Obama. Plus, he was surgeon general under President George W. Bush, and he's a political independent running as a Democrat for the first time.

Dr. Richard Carmona will likely face off against anti-earmark-crusading U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake (R) in the general election. But the primary competitors in this race, former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens and Republican businessman Wil Cardon, are strong.

The Most Interesting Senate Candidate in the World?

The son of Puerto Rican parents, Carmona served as a special forces medic in Vietnam and earned two Purple Hearts and two Bronze Stars. After his return, Carmona joined the Pima County Sheriff's Department as a deputy, serving as a SWAT team leader, while also practicing as a surgeon.

In 1992, Carmona rescued a man from a cliff in the snowy Pinaleno Mountains, rappelling down a 75-foot line from a helicopter.

He was serving as head of the Tucson Medical Center trauma unit at the time.

In 1999, while Carmona was off-duty from his sheriff's deputy service, he saw a traffic accident in Tucson and stopped to offer medical assistance. One of the drivers shot at him and the bullet grazed his head. Carmona shot back and killed the man. It was later discovered that the man was mentally unstable and wanted for murder.

Sounds a little like Dos Equis' "Most Interesting Man in the World," no?

Carmona hasn't always been cast in such a positive light. Upon his nomination for U.S. surgeon general, a 2002 Los Angeles Times story portrayed Carmona as belligerent and difficult to work with, digging into his tenure at Tucson Medical Center.

A Long Shot for Democrats

Of course, that swashbuckling history doesn't change Arizona's conservative leanings--and the polling for Carmona does not look good.

If voters had to choose today between Carmona and the Republican, Flake, they would elect Flake by a margin of 42 percent to 29 percent, according to an NBC/Marist poll released this week.

Arizona is one of the redder states, with Republicans holding the legislature, the governor's mansion, both Senate seats and five of eight House seats. The same NBC/Marist poll showed Arizonans disapproving of Obama 51 percent to 39 percent.

And there's no guarantee Carmona will be the Democrats' nominee. Bivens has raised more money overall, but Carmona pulled in more than $550,000 in a month and a half of campaigning--more than twice what Bivens raised in the entire fourth quarter of 2011.

But the war chest of the more experienced Flake dwarfs both Democratic candidates. He is able to use the money he's raised over multiple reelection bids in his safe House district, and he now has over $2.5 million in the bank.

However, Democrats are optimistic for two reasons. One of them has to do with Flake, who has never run a statewide race and whose conservative, anti-spending platform has worked well through five reelection terms in his conservative House district south and east of Phoenix. But that platform may not hold up across the entire state.

The other has to do with immigration.

Same Old Immigration Fight ... With a Twist

Ever since Gov. Jan Brewer signed the infamous Arizona immigration law, SB 1070, the issue has dominated Arizona politics. Democrats think that could be a boon, helping them motivate the law's opponents to volunteer and vote.