National Parties Battle in VA and NJ to Set Stage for 2010

Oct. 7, 2009— -- The populations of Virginia and New Jersey combined only make up just north of 5 percent of the total American population. But that won't stop every national political observer looking for clues about where the country and President Obama stand politically one year after his historic 2008 election.

Although the two marquee gubernatorial contests in 2009 will largely be decided on local issues, how the economy is playing in each of those states, and the particular accomplishments and flaws of the candidates on the ballots, the national Democratic and Republican parties are pouring unprecedented amounts of money and muscle into these races on the belief they will be viewed as setting the stage for the critically important 2010 midterm elections next year when 37 governorships, 38 senate seats, and the entire House of Representatives are up for grabs.

"These two are clearly very important, and a 0-2 scenario is the one both parties will go to almost any financial length to avoid," said Republican strategist Phil Musser, who ran the Republican Governors Association during the 2006 cycle.

In Virginia alone, the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic National Committee have pumped a combined $10 million into the effort to help Creigh Deeds hang on to the seat that has been in Democratic hands since 2002.

The Republican National Committee and the Republican Governors Association have contributed more than $12 million to the race in an attempt to help former Attorney General Bob McDonnell win the seat back for the GOP. The RNC recently gave an additional $900,000 to the RGA to help pay for its current TV ad campaign running against Deeds.

One Democratic strategist said the New Jersey and Virginia contests will tell us less about the national political environment than they will about the state of the Democratic and Republican parties.

"The GOP will clearly use a win in Virginia to rally the troops as a sign they have stemmed the blue tide there. Democratic wins in Virginia over the last two cycles have been tough for the GOP to swallow, so a win there could help them make an argument that the GOP is making a comeback heading into 2010," said former DNC communications director Karen Finney.