The Note: Ben Carson Erases Donald Trump's Lead

— -- NOTABLES --BEN CARSON ERASES DONALD TRUMP'S NATIONAL LEAD IN NEW POLL: Yesterday it was Iowa. Today it's nationwide. Just a day after Ben Carson blew open a double-digit lead over Trump in the state of Iowa, a new poll shows the real estate mogul's national advantage is now completely gone, ABC's RYAN STRUYK notes. A new poll from CBS News/New York Times released this morning shows Carson with 26 percent support and Trump with 22 percent support, which is within the poll's margin of error. Trump has not trailed in national polls for more than three months, surging to the front of the pack shortly after he entered the race. But now, Trump has slipped slightly, down 5 points in the last two weeks, while Carson has ticked up 5 points in the same time frame. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio garnered 8 percent support in the new poll, with Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina at 7 percent each. http://abcn.ws/1H6QTks

--BEHIND THE NUMBERS: Carson has opened up a wide lead among evangelicals, according to CBS. He leads Trump among that group by more than 20 points. But Trump backers are more solid in their support than Carson supporters. Roughly four in five Carson supporters said they could still change their minds about who to support, while more than half of Trump supporters said they had made their final decision.

--5 REASONS WHY CARSON IS SURGING IN IOWA: A poll out yesterday from Monmouth University shows the neurosurgeon pulling ahead -- and now quickly pulling away -- from Donald Trump by double-digits in the Hawkeye state. It's the third consecutive poll to show Carson ahead, after the real estate mogul had led the crucial first-in-the-nation caucus state for more than three months. The latest Monmouth poll shows Carson at 32 percent support and Trump at 18 percent. What's causing Iowa voters to trade one outsider for another? ABC's RYAN STRUYK cites five reasons for Carson's rise: http://abcn.ws/1Wenktm

--TRUMP GETS PRICKLY OVER POLLS: Trump may be feeling the heat over new polling in Iowa showing his trailing Ben Carson. Walking into a rally in Atkinson, New Hampshire, Monday, Trump dismissed a recent surge by the retired Maryland neurosurgeon, saying, "He's had one better poll in Iowa. I don't believe those polls, actually, because I've seen the response from the people in Iowa," ABC's BRAD MIELKE reports. http://abcn.ws/1PNXCrq