The Note: How Long Before A Trump Slump?
— -- NOTABLES
--TAKE ME TO YOUR LEADER: Donald Trump leads the GOP primary field in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, while also garnering enough support as a hypothetical independent candidate in the general election to potentially damage his party's chances, ABC's GARY LANGER notes. That's even though a majority of Americans, including most Republicans, say Trump does not represent the Republican Party's core values, and six in 10 overall - including three in 10 in his own party- say they wouldn't consider supporting him for president were he the GOP nominee. Trump's frontrunner status, moreover, reflects the crowded GOP race. He leads the 16-candidate field with 24 percent support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote, up sharply from 4 percent in May. While enough for a lead, that also means 76 percent prefer someone else, or none of them. http://abcn.ws/1RKJFN9
--HOW LONG THE TRUMP SURGE LASTS IS AN OPEN QUESTION: This poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, mostly before his controversial criticism Saturday of Sen. John McCain's status as a war hero. And Trump's support was conspicuously lower Sunday than in the three previous days, LANGER writes. Trump's support was 28 percent in this survey's first three nights of polling. While the sample size of registered leaned Republicans on Sunday is quite small, he dropped to the single digits that day. Beneath Trump, Scott Walker has 13 percent support, Jeb Bush 12 percent, with the rest in single digits. http://abcn.ws/1RKJFN9
--NOTE THIS: In a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters. But with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump - with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points. (Trump's support in this three-way matchup was 21 percent from Thursday to Saturday, vs. 13 percent in Sunday interviews). http://abcn.ws/1RKJFN9
--GARY LANGER'S BOTTOM LINE: These are early days, of course; leaders came and went like flashcards in the 2012 Republican primary contest, and, as noted, potential fallout from Trump"s comments on McCain - or his next pronouncements - remains to be seen. But the results underscore the GOP's conundrum in responding to Trump, a billionaire businessman and television celebrity who hasn't ruled out an independent run for the presidency. http://abcn.ws/1RKJFN9
ABC'S GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS TO SIT DOWN WITH NO. 16, JOHN KASICH: Ohio Gov. John Kasich will announce his presidential campaign in a speech at Ohio State University, his alma mater, at 11:25 am ET today, becoming the 16th major GOP presidential candidate for 2016. ABC's GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS interviews Kasich today. Portions of the interview will air on "World News Tonight," "Good Morning America" and on ABCNews.com. Kasich travels this evening New Hampshire for a town-hall at Rivier University in Nashua at 5:30 pm ET.
--JOHN KASICH IN A MINUTE: Here's everything you need to know (and probably didn't know) about the 2016 presidential candidate. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/1SzfNhA
--IN THE NOTE'S INBOX -- CLUB FOR GROWTH HITS KASICH AHEAD OF ANNOUNCEMENT: The Club for Growth released the following statement ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich's announcement today: "John Kasich's decision to expand Medicaid in Ohio in 2013 was a costly mistake," Club for Growth President David McIntosh said in a statement. "Medicaid enrollment in Ohio has far outpaced Kasich's projections and more than doubled in cost. The Club for Growth is concluding its research into Kasich"s broader record on issues of economic freedom. But, our presidential white paper on the Ohio governor will, no doubt, warn of the long-lasting consequences from his decision to burden Ohio with an ever-growing price tag for Medicaid expansion."
THE ZEN OF RICK (SANTORUM): Rick Santorum couldn't care less that he's trailing most other Republican presidential contenders in national polls. Four years ago, he was behind in the polls too, but won the Iowa caucuses after slogging through all 99 of the state's counties. "Good poll numbers in July are easily traded for better poll numbers in January," Santorum told a small group of reporters in Washington yesterday, ABC's BEN GITTLESON notes. But this time, the field is larger and more competitive. And at least one candidate, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, aims to mirror Santorum's full-state press. "I don't think there's any expectation that I'm going to win Iowa," Santorum said. A strong finish in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina is essential, though, he added. He said he's not worried about the relatively small amount of money he's raised compared to his competitors. Santorum is hoping his pro-manufacturing message will resonate with Iowans, including many who remember him from last time around and might select him from this cycle's "dessert table" (his words) of candidates, he said. "We're counting on the long plan," Santorum said, with an almost Zen-like quality, "not the short plan."
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT IN THE NOTE:
--"DONALD TRUMP IS THE WORLD'S GREATEST TROLL." From FiveThirtyEight's NATE SILVER: "A troll," according to one definition, "is a person who sows discord ... by starting arguments or upsetting people...with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion." Sound like any presidential candidates you know? Still, there"s a notion that Donald Trump"s recent rise in Republican polls is a media-driven creation. That explanation isn't entirely wrong, but it's incomplete. It skims over the complex interactions between the media, the public and the candidates, which can produce booms and busts of attention. And it ignores how skilled trolls like Trump can exploit the process to their benefit. http://53eig.ht/1Ds2UPq
--"JOHN KASICH: A JEB BUSH IN JON HUNTSMAN CLOTHING." From FiveThirtyEight's HARRY ENTEN: It reads like a dream resume for a Republican presidential candidate: nine-term congressman, six-year Fox News host and now twice-elected governor of a crucial swing state. His record puts him snugly in the mainstream of the Republican Party. Oh, and he won re-election as governor in 2014 by 31 percentage points. And yet, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who officially kicks off his campaign today, is currently in 12th place in national primary polls with a net favorability rating of just +3 percentage points, according to the latest Monmouth University survey. Kasich's problem: Voters who have an opinion about him - Kasich isn't well-known - don't view him as a mainstream conservative. So far, they consider him 2016's version of Jon Huntsman. Kasich, like Huntsman, is adored by the media, is seen as too moderate by GOP voters and appears to enjoy telling Republicans they're wrong. http://53eig.ht/1MFm6yp
THE BUZZ
LEADER OF NEW YORK VETERANS GROUP DEFENDS DONALD TRUMP. With all the fire coming at Donald Trump since his comments last weekend against Sen. John McCain - one of the leaders of New York's Vietnam Veterans Plaza tells ABC News Trump "has not been a bad guy to us." Vincent McGowan, who has been with the organization since its inception in 1983 and currently sits on its board, says that if it wasn't for Trump, the project in lower Manhattan would have never happened, ABC's JOHN SANTUCCI reports. McGowan says the property downtown was gifted to the veterans by the Koch administration but they had no money. Trump committed $1M in a matching fund and they "couldn't have built it without him." In a USA Today op-ed published Sunday evening, Trump said his "record of veteran support is well-documented. I served as co-chairman of the New York Vietnam Veterans Memorial Commission and was responsible, with a small group, for getting it built." http://abcn.ws/1Gwi5am
JEB BUSH SAYS HE'S TAKING ON 'MOUNT WASHINGTON.' Casting himself as the anti-Washington candidate, Jeb Bush laid out yesterday in Tallahassee the first in a series of policy speeches entitled, "Taking on Mount Washington." Speaking at Florida State University in the city in which he spent his tenure as two-term governor, Bush spoke broadly of his time, saying that he "wasn't a member of the club" and refused to go along with the establishment, ABC's CANDACE SMITH report. He said Washington is plagued with "overspending", "arrogance" and "sheer incompetence." It is an interesting approach for a man who shares the last name with the last two Republican presidents. As part of this image, he proposed enacting an "immediate, unequivocal six-year ban on lobbying - a full Senate term - for ex-members of the House and Senate." Bush also suggested his support for a bill calling for members of Congress to have their pay docked for missing votes. "A bill to dock the pay of absentee members might not pass the House or Senate, but at least it would get them all there for a vote. If we can't always get them on the job, let's at least get them on the record," he said. In his remarks, he said it's time "to revive Veto Corleone," an ode to the name supporters gave him as governor, alluding to his affinity for cutting government spending.
TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's CHRIS GOOD: Donald Trump will hold a South Carolina kickoff rally at Sun City Hilton Head in Bluffton at 11 am ET. Jeb Bush will also campaign in South Carolina. He'll participate in a leadership forum at Edward Via College of Osteopathic Medicine in Spartanburg at 4:30 pm ET. Chris Christie will also campaign in South Carolina, holding a meet-and-greet with the Horry County GOP at Sea Captain's House in Myrtle Beach at 10 am ET. Bobby Jindal will campaign in Iowa, where he'll hold a town-hall at Oakwood Road Community Center in Ames at 9 pm ET.
WHAT WE'RE READING
"EDITORIAL: TRUMP SHOULD PULL THE PLUG ON HIS BLOVIATING SIDE SHOW," The Des Moines Register Editorial Board. "It's time for Donald Trump to drop out of the race for president of the United States. ...In just five weeks, he has polluted the political waters to such an extent that serious candidates who actually have the credentials to serve as president can't get their message across to voters. In fact, some of them can't even win a spot in one of the upcoming debates, since those slots are reserved for candidates leading in the polls. Last week, just before he decided to go after McCain, Trump was at the top of at least one national poll. But being electable is not the same as being qualified, and Trump has proven himself not only unfit to hold office, but unfit to stand on the same stage as his Republican opponents. The best way Donald Trump can serve his country is by apologizing to McCain and terminating this ill-conceived campaign." http://dmreg.co/1TNHDcz
WHO'S TWEETING?
@HillaryClinton: Gov. Walker signed dangerous abortion restrictions into law in WI - without exceptions for rape or incest. Extreme and unacceptable. -H
@ScottWalker: Hillary shows she's out of touch with the majority of Americans who believe babies at 5 months deserve life. -SW
@WNTonight: Sen. John McCain was a prisoner of war for 5+ years in North Vietnam. What he went through: http://abcn.ws/1ecLnEp
@jwpetersNYT: Trump points to examples of his philanthropy for veterans - a parade and a war memorial - that are decades old. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/21/us/politics/veterans-groups-take-their-shots-at-trump-as-he-backs-off-a-bit-on-mccain.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share ...
@BuzzFeedNews: A Year In The Life Of An American Reporter Locked In An Iranian Prison http://www.buzzfeed.com/anupkaphle/a-year-in-the-life-of-an-american-reporter-locked-in-an-iran?bftwnews&utm_term=4ldqpgc#4ldqpgc ...
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