The Note: In the Shadow of a Shooting

— -- NOTABLES

--WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE SAYING ABOUT SAN BERNARDINO: Some presidential candidates offered their prayers and thoughts for victims of the attack. Others called for action to stop gun violence. ABC's PAOLA CHAVEZ and VERONICA STRACQUALURSI have more on the reactions to yesterday's shooting: http://abcn.ws/1RnygAy

--BEN CARSON CALLS IT A 'HATE CRIME': GOP candidate Ben Carson called yesterday's shooting in San Bernardino, California, a "hate crime", ABC's KATHERINE FAULDERS notes. "Look at what happened again. Another hate crime in San Bernardino today. That these 14 people killed. Less than a week ago, we had the shooting in Colorado and then look at all the things going on around the world -- ISIS and groups like this," Carson said at a news conference yeaterday. http://abcn.ws/1IpTOuA

--CARLY FIORINA ACCUSES OBAMA, CLINTON OF POLITICIZING SHOOTING: Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina is accusing President Obama and Hillary Clinton of politicizing the San Bernardino shooting, ABC's JORDYN PHELPS notes. "As the tragedy in San Bernardino unfolds, predictably, without knowing any of the facts of what has happened there or why, President Obama and Hillary Clinton immediately came out and made a political statement for gun control," Fiorina said in an answer to a question about Second Amendment rights during a live video Twitter town hall last night. "We know, the facts are very clear, that of all the people in the United States that should not own firearms, and there are so many, less than 1 percent of them are ever prosecuted," she continued. "So instead of, Mrs. Clinton, calling for more laws why don't we enforce the laws that we have and as well enforce the second amendment."

--ANALYSIS -- ABC's RICK KLEIN: Are the responses just timed Tweets at this point, tweaked with a new detail or two? From one side of the aisle, "thoughts and prayers" and a call for a focus on mental health. From the other, "this must change" and a push for gun control, of course. The nation looks to politicians for guidance and help in understanding, if not fixing, tragic circumstances. On this count, when it comes to mass shootings and their aftermath, the political class has failed. If anything, the responses we've come to expect now only add to a nation's numbness. But the simple fact is that politicians and candidates aren't feeling voter pressure to change their responses or their policy positions. Part of the ritual now is the numbness, followed by the forgetfulness.

IN THE NOTE'S INBOX

--PAUL RYAN TO DELIVER FIRST MAJOR ADDRESS AS HOUSE SPEAKER. Newly-minted House Speaker Paul Ryan heads to the Great Hall of the Library of Congress to deliver what aides are billing as "his vision for a confident America at home and abroad." Here's an excerpt of his remarks as prepared for delivery: "If you don't have a job, we want you to be confident that you can find one--and take it. If you do have a job, we want you to be confident that that job will pay well. We want students to know that all that school--and all that debt--will be worth it. We want seniors to know that all those years of hard work--and all those years of paying taxes--will be rewarded. Medicare and Social Security will be there when you need them. We want all Americans, when they look at Washington, to see spending going down, taxes going down, debt going down. We want to see progress and have pride. We want people to believe in the future again. We want a country where no one's stuck, where no one settles, where everyone can rise." The address takes place at 12:30 PM Eastern. http://www.speaker.gov/live?Source=GovD

--GEORGE W. BUSH TO MAKE MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT 2016 INVICTUS GAMES. This afternoon, former President George W. Bush will be joined by Ken Fisher, the CEO of the 2016 Invictus Games, to make a major announcement regarding the games, which will be held in Orlando next year. A source tells The Note: The former president and Fisher will also meet with the Invictus hopefuls and watch a brief exhibition of one of the ten sports that will be conducted at next year's event. This demonstration is another key event leading up to the opening ceremony in May for the first Invictus Games to be hosted in the United States, which began with His Royal Highness Prince Harry's visit to the U.S. last month. The games are a weeklong multisport competition between wounded warriors from 15 countries. Today's event takes place at 2:30 PM Eastern aboard the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum in New York Harbor.

THE BUZZ

with ABC's VERONICA STRACQUALURSI and PAOLA CHAVEZ

WHAT A SECRET MEMO TO TOP REPUBLICANS SAYS ABOUT DONALD TRUMP. The head of the Republican committee charged with keeping the U.S. Senate under GOP control is actively preparing for the possibility of Donald Trump winning the GOP presidential nomination. ABC's RYAN STRUYK and SHUSHANNAH WALSHE report that National Republican Senatorial Committee executive director Ward Baker wrote a secret memo to top staff in late September on how to run their campaigns if the real estate mogul is at the top of the ticket, describing the current GOP frontrunner as "a misguided missile" who is "subject to farcical fits" and advising its candidates to avoid getting tied too closely to Trump. "We should prepare for 2016 by understanding the environment and recognizing the Trump phenomenon," Baker writes in the confidential memo. "Understand the populist point Trump makes and ride that wave." The memo also warns candidates to distance themselves from Trump's comments about women. "Houston, we have a problem: Donald Trump has said some wacky things about women," he wrote. "Candidates shouldn't go near this ground other than to say that your wife or daughter is offended by what Trump said." http://abcn.ws/1l9slTM

HILLARY CLINTON CALLS FOR FEDERAL INVESTIGATION OF CHICAGO POLICE FOLLOWING LAQUAN MCDONALD SHOOTING. Hillary Clinton is calling for a federal probe of the Chicago Police Department's tactics following the shooting of Laquan McDonald, according to a spokesperson. This stance goes against the position of Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a former Chief of Staff to President Obama and longtime friend and colleague of Clinton's, who has said a local task force would be more appropriate for the review. "Hillary Clinton is deeply troubled by the shooting of Laquan McDonald and the outstanding questions related to both the shooting and the video," spokesperson Brian Fallon said in a statement. According to ABC's LIZ KREUTZ, Clinton's call for a federal review comes roughly one week after the Chicago officials released disturbing video from October 2014 showing a white police officer shooting 17-year-old McDonald. http://abcn.ws/21wM6Fj

TED CRUZ SAYS MAJORITY OF VIOLENT CRIMINALS ARE DEMOCRATS, AUTHORS OF STUDY HE CITED SAY HE'S WRONG. The researchers behind a study that Sen. Ted Cruz cited to back up his statement Monday that the "overwhelming majority of violent criminals are Democrats" are pushing back on Cruz's assertion. In a piece published by the Washington Post, Ivy League researchers Marc Meredith and Michael Morse use their own data to refute Cruz's assertion, which he stood by in an interview with ABC News on Tuesday, saying that he can make a "reasonable inference," drawing from data on the voting registration of ex-felons who re-registered to vote in three states, that most violent criminals vote Democratic. "I don't think you can make that inference based on the data we provided," Meredith said in a phone interview with ABC News. ABC's ALI WEINBERG has more. http://abcn.ws/1XzK73w

MARCO RUBIO ON UPPING HIS HISPANIC OUTREACH ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. As the son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio has yet to use one of his biggest assets -- the potential he has to win over Hispanics. It's been estimated that Republicans must win over 40% of the Hispanic vote if they are to win the White House. Rubio declared his candidacy in April, but since then has done very little Hispanic outreach nationwide. There was a campaign stop in Puerto Rico in September, which he conducted entirely in Spanish. There were a couple events in Las Vegas in October. One was at the LIBRE Initiative, a nonprofit Latino-outreach group funded by the Koch brothers; the other at a Cuban diner. But other than those three stops, Rubio hasn't hosted other public events specifically geared towards Hispanics. Though he is fully bilingual, he very rarely speaks Spanish out on the stump, ABC's INES DE LA CUETARA notes. In addition, the campaign has yet to run any Spanish-language ads. The campaign declined to say whether it was doing any Hispanic outreach behind closed doors. http://abcn.ws/1RmSsCP

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

WHAT REPORTER BEHIND 9/11 REPORT SAYS ABOUT TRUMP'S CLAIMS. For almost two weeks now, Donald Trump has been asserting that "thousands" of Muslims in New Jersey were celebrating the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. Wednesday, a senior adviser to Donald Trump's presidential campaign, Dan Scavino, said he was backing up Trump's claims by tweeting a video report by former WCBS-TV reporter Pablo Guzman describing celebrations in Jersey City, N.J., after the World Trade Center collapsed. Guzman said the video does not show anyone celebrating and he disputes Trump's claims. ABC's JOHN SANTUCCI and VERONICA STRACQUALURSI have more on what now-retired Guzman told ABC News. http://abcn.ws/1XzgEqD

WHO'S TWEETING?

@EHolmesWSJ: Mass shootings happen, on average, more than once a day in the US. 462 died, 1,314 wounded this year alone. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/03/us/how-often-do-mass-shootings-occur-on-average-every-day-records-show.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share ...

@PhilipRucker: As Tom Perez endorses Clinton http://wapo.st/1Ns2P6x , this @mj_lee Feb piece explains his popularity with Dem base http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/23/politics/tom-perez-labor-secretary-port-deal/index.html ...

@realDonaldTrump: As a presidential candidate, I have instructed my long-time doctor to issue, within two weeks, a full medical report-it will show perfection

@amyewalter: If Cruz's "Evangelical/base turnout" theory of beating Hillary sounds too good to be true, it's b/c it is. http://cookpolitical.com/story/9055

@HotlineJosh: By 13-pt margin (54-41%), voters favor sending US troops to fight ISIS in Iraq/Syria. 71% of GOP favors, 39% of Ds http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2308 ...