Outsider Status Lifts Trump in SC; Clinton Gets an Obama Boost in NV (EXIT POLL)
Demand for an outsider and vast support for a ban on Muslims helped Donald Trump
— -- Demand for an outsider and vast support for a ban on Muslims entering the country helped Donald Trump to victory in the South Carolina Republican primary. He was pulled back, all the same, by values voters and strong conservatives – setting the stage for epic battles ahead.
Hillary Clinton, for her part, weathered an influx of liberals in the Nevada Democratic caucuses to prevail with help from women, older voters, blacks – and a major boost from Obama loyalists. That said, she lost Hispanics to Bernie Sanders and again was hammered among young voters, a sign of further tests on this side as well.
Among other results, Saturday’s contests showed the remarkable polarization currently at play. Seven in 10 Democratic caucus-goers in Nevada described themselves as liberal, sharply up from 2008, while a record 82 percent of GOP voters were conservatives. Turnout among evangelicals also set a state record in South Carolina, and Trump ran surprisingly well among them.
Results of the South Carolina exit and Nevada entrance polls were analyzed for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. A full report follows – first on the Republican race, then the Democratic contest.
The Republican Race
Strikingly, nearly three-quarters of South Carolina voters supported temporarily banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States – exceeding the 65 percent who said so in New Hampshire. They were a key support group for Trump in both states; in South Carolina, 38 percent of these voters backed Trump.
Fewer Republican voters – but still more than four in 10 – favored deporting undocumented immigrants, again a very strong group for Trump, with 45 percent supporting him. And 44 percent overall picked Trump among five top contenders as best able to handle the economy, more than twice as many as picked his nearest competitor on this question, Ted Cruz.
That said, Trump faced continued challenges. The top attribute voters were seeking was someone who “shares my values” – a weaker group for Trump in earlier contests, and notably so here: A mere 7 percent of values voters picked him in South Carolina – dead last among the six candidates running, and compared with 36 percent for Cruz and 26 percent for Marco Rubio.
As noted, 82 percent in South Carolina identified themselves as conservative, up from 68 percent in 2012 to a record in exit polls in the state since 1992. Nearly four in 10 were very conservative, a strong group for Cruz. But Cruz was quite weak among moderate voters, with single-digit support, marking a significant vulnerability for him should he reach a general election contest.
Three-quarters identified themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians – again a record, up from 65 percent in 2012. It was evangelicals who lifted Cruz to victory in Iowa; they made up 64 percent of voters there, vs. just 25 percent in New Hampshire, where Trump won.
In this case, though, Trump won evangelicals – narrowly ahead of Cruz, with Rubio not far behind (31-27-22 percent). Trump did particularly well among evangelicals who are less strongly conservative and were less focused on a candidate who shares their religious beliefs or their values overall.
That said, a substantial 44 percent of South Carolina voters said it mattered “a great deal” to them that a candidate shares their religious beliefs – up very sharply from 26 percent in 2012, and a better group for Cruz. He beat Trump by 7 points among these voters, and Rubio by 13.