Republicans Seeking Immediate Cuts to Social Security? Not So Fast

— -- A story about Republicans’ seeking to cut Social Security benefits by up to 50 percent has been gaining traction on Facebook.

The Dec. 9 story on the liberal-leaning website New Century Times was flagged by Facebook users as being potentially false. ABC News looked into it, and this is what we found.

The headline itself -- “Leaked! Republicans Looking To Cut Social Security As Much As 50% Immediately (Details)” – is misleading.

Here’s why:

Republicans Are Not Proposing Immediate 50 Percent Cuts

The New Century Times article focused on a bill introduced this month by Rep. Sam Johnson, R-Texas, who’s chairman of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security.

His plan seeks to solve long-term projected budget shortfalls in the program by cutting benefits alone rather than increasing revenues or some combination of both. His proposed cuts are large, but rolled out over decades – not immediate, as the story’s headline indicates. And, under his plan, only the nation’s top wage earners would likely see reductions as large as 50 percent.

“There is no way you can interpret the bill so that people who are getting benefits now or even people who are expected to receive benefits in the future, would see those benefits cut by 50 percent immediately,” Shai Akabas, director of fiscal policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D.C., told ABC News. “In terms of the actual substance of what is going to happen to people’s benefits, ‘immediately’ is not applicable.”

Defending the headline, New Century Times responded to questions from ABC News in a statement saying the word “immediately” referred to the fact that the legislation had been introduced this month.

“The fact is that Republicans have long made cutting Social Security and Medicare part of their solution to fix America. The idea that tax cuts for the wealthy and throwing seniors into financial peril via cuts, however small or large, will lead to people literally dying,” the statement said.

“… We report on news and we hold a position. I'm proud that we accurately reported on the serious nature of the dismantling of Social Security.”

The writer of the piece from New Century Times, Sarah Wood, told ABC, “Nothing in the story is false.”

Under the Plan, Some Americans Would Eventually See Reductions of at Least 50 Percent

The story says Republicans are seeking to make “drastic cuts that will affect those even benefiting from the program right now.” This is partially true.

Without suggesting any increases in revenue to the program, Johnson’s plan relies on significant future reductions in payouts and benefits for retirees in order to balance the program’s budget down the road. Depending on their income and how many years they worked, some would see cuts in their benefits starting in 2030.

Taking all of Johnson’s proposals into account, the highest income earners (with yearly income over $78,000) older than 75 could see benefit reductions as high as 40 to 70 percent by 2050, compared to what they are scheduled to receive today, according to the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary. Retirees who lived the longest would see the greatest impact. The most dramatic cuts would come at the end of Johnson’s proposed timeline in 2080.

The lowest bracket of wage earners, who worked for about 30 years and made less than about $22,000 yearly on average, would actually see an increase in benefits under his plan, according to the chief actuary projection tables.

Some of the reductions are based on the way Johnson divvies up payments among different income groups, and others result from his proposal to change (and eliminate for some) yearly cost-of-living boosts to recipient checks to account for inflation.

Under his plan, as early as December 2018, Social Security recipients with a single income exceeding $85,000 would not receive any yearly adjustments to their payouts based on inflation. The rate of inflation for all other recipients, he proposes, would be calculated with a new formula, known as the “Chained Consumer Price Index,” which would result in a significantly smaller or even nonexistent year-over-year cost of living adjustment.

Johnson’s plan would also phase in an increase in the full retirement age from 67 to 69 over the next 15 years.

(Experts believe if no changes are made to the laws governing Social Security, starting around 2034 the program’s Trust Fund will be depleted to the point that the program will not be able to pay 100 percent of what was promised to people.)

Down the Road

Although Rep. Johnson does have a leading committee position in the House on this issue, Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., has said that health care and tax reform are higher on his to-do list. His office has said that Johnson’s plan is only one of many Republican proposals on Social Security.

Alice Rivlin, senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution, told ABC, “We will not get a lasting reform in Social Security until both parties agree on what that reform should be and it is going to have to be a compromise of some sort. If the Republicans were to pass a reform that cut benefits without increasing revenues, even supposing they could get enough Republicans votes to pass it … Democrats would demonize it and it would be a very potent weapon.”

On the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump vowed not to make cuts Social Security for those who had already paid into the program.

(Also, the bill, contrary to the New Century Times story headline, was not leaked. It was introduced on Dec. 8, 2016, at which time its contents became public record and the Social Security Administration was given a heads up and time to evaluate it).

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