Senate Majority Leader Faces 'Big Trouble' in Nevada Race

Jan. 16, 2010— -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has been fighting to keep his leadership post this week after his impolitic remarks about President Obama and race. Back in Nevada, that controversy is among the least of his worries.

Facing re-election to a fifth term this year, polls show his home-state popularity sagging and his signature political issue, health care, bringing him little benefit among voters. Democrats fear a repeat of 2004, when Reid's predecessor as Senate leader, Tom Daschle, was tossed from office by voters.

"I think he's gone," says Patty Pennise, 46, an unemployed hotel worker and independent voter. "There's a mentality out there, 'Throw them all out.' "

The reasons for that anti-incumbent sentiment: The state's tourism-dependent economy remains down, unemployment is up, and home foreclosures are among the highest in the nation.

Republicans are lining up to run against Reid, and the senator is under attack in TV ads run by a conservative Tea Party Express group. State Republican Party Chairman Chris Comfort says there could be as many as 10 or 12 candidates entering the June primary for the chance to face Reid in November.

"He's definitely in big trouble," says Sal Russo, the Sacramento political strategist for Our Country Deserves Better, a conservative committee raising money to air the Tea Party Express ads.

A Mason-Dixon survey of 625 Nevada voters last week for the Las Vegas Review-Journal found 52% view Reid unfavorably. The survey showed Reid trailing three potential GOP opponents, including former University of Nevada-Las Vegas basketball player Danny Tarkanian.

A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Reid dragged down by the health care bill he is trying to get to Obama's desk. It found 54% of Nevada voters oppose the bill.

The outlook is so grim that even before a clear GOP opponent has emerged, national political analyst Stuart Rothenberg this week revised his Senate election handicapping to count Reid's seat as leaning toward a GOP takeover. He calls Reid — who won with 61% in 2004 — a "slight underdog" for re-election.