It's Not the Economy, Stupid

Oct. 26, 2006 — -- Democratic party strategist James Carville gets credit for the phrase that may well outlive him: "It's the economy, stupid." Actually, what he said, or wrote during Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, was "The economy, stupid."

Carville hoped to keep campaign workers focused on a huge issue, the faltering economy under President George H.W. Bush.

Now, 14 years later, the former president's son presides over a fairly healthy economy. But, to steal from the late Rodney Dangerfield, he "don't get no respect."

The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 55 percent of Americans believe the economy is in good shape. And registered voters rank the economy as the second most important issue in the campaign.

So, if Americans, including registered voters, feel the economy is important and healthy, why are Republicans doing so badly in the polls, and why do 60 percent disapprove of Bush's job performance?

Our survey found the president gets little credit for good economic news: By a 54-37 margin, Americans trust Democrats to do a better job handling the economy.

Political experts and pollsters offer three reasons for the country's reluctance to reward Bush and his party for economic gains.

First and foremost, Iraq. Disenchantment with the war has colored the way voters feel about Bush on other issues. Thomas Mann of the nonpartisan Brookings Institution says feelings about Iraq "are now so relentlessly negative and increasingly passionately, intensely so that they tend to overwhelm other news that might be positive."

Second, a bad economy can hurt the party in power (just ask the president's father), but a good economy does not necessarily translate into gratitude at the polls. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore had a strong economy going for him, but it did not propel him into the Oval Office.

And finally, not everyone agrees that the economy is so swell at the moment. A closer look at the ABC News poll finds that voters give very mixed grades when they are asked about their own family's financial situation.