Poll: Gore Bounces Past Bush

Aug. 22 -- Al Gore has stepped out of Bill Clinton’s shadow and back into political contention, bouncing to a five-point advantage over George W. Bush among registered voters, 50-45 percent. It’s Gore’s first edge in the presidential race since March.

Gore’s gain — most of it among the key swing group, independents — more than erases the 14-point lead Bush built up at his own convention. It’s a bigger bounce than Bush himself managed, and bigger than usual in polls measuring convention bounces since 1968.

Gore achieved his advance on several fronts: He successfully distanced himself from Clinton. His appeal to working families has resonated. He improved his own leadership ratings. And he gained ground on several of the battleground issues — the economy, health care, education — enumerated in his nomination acceptance speech. Indeed, for the first time Gore leads Bush in public trust to handle the economy.

Gore’s appeal to populism (or class warfare, as the Bush campaign would have it) seems to have won him some support. Some 62 percent now think Gore understands the problems of average people, up 11 points; just 50 percent think Bush understands their problems. Gore leads Bush by 12 points in trust to help the middle class. And 42 percent think Bush favors the wealthy, while just 12 percent say that about Gore.

On Clinton fatigue, the number who say Gore is “too close to Clinton” to give the country a fresh start has dropped by eight points, to 39 percent. People who like Clinton’s policies but dislike Clinton personally now support Gore by a 20-point margin. And for the first time since the primaries, most now see Gore as a strong leader in his own right.

The question, as ever, is how long the bounce lasts. Bush’s was short-lived. This poll immediately follows Gore’s weeklong domination of the news. And Gore’s been here before: He inched into a slight numerical lead after the primaries, but it didn’t hold.

Conventions Good for Gore

Whatever the future holds, the convention season did work to Gore’s advantage, turning a three-point deficit before it began to a five-point edge. Among those most likely to vote that grows to eight points, with Gore up by 53-45 percent.