Looking Past Election Day

Nov. 3, 2006 — -- With so much focus on Election Day itself, what happens after November 7?

In the week following the election, newly elected and incumbent members of the House and Senate will convene in Washington to begin to plan the organization of each party in each chamber of the 110th Congress. At stake are leadership positions, committee chairs and the identities both parties will project from Capitol Hill for the next two years.

This election has been largely defined by the unpopular Iraq war. If Democrats gain control of the House, they will indeed have one lever of power but no direct ability to change American strategy in Iraq. But if ballots on election nights sweep a large majority of Democrats into the House, the immediate discussion will be centered around how much the White House takes those results as a referendum on the War. Will the administration's policy and strategy begin to shift as a result?

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It has been widely speculated that the Democrats' best chance of regaining control lies in the House races. In that scenario, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), currently the Democratic leader of the House, would likely become the first women speaker of the House.

Though a handful of Democrats are on record expressing reluctance to vote for her, the number is not enough to prevent her from becoming speaker. Her relationship with the president is poisonous at best, and much of the administration's ability to get anything done in the House for the next two years will be largely defined by how well they get along.

The battle for the post of majority leader in a Democratically controlled House would most likely be between Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.). Sources believe that Hoyer can contain the Murtha insurgency, though it is marked as a battle to watch.

In line to take Hoyer's place as Democratic Whip is Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), though there is talk that Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), in an environment in which House Democrats move from minority to majority, may make a run for the position. His ability to work his way into the No.3 slot in the House leadership depends on how big a Democratic wave comes ashore on election night. This is one of several battles in which Democrats will have to weigh the concerns of the Congressional Black Caucus, since Clyburn is African-American.