Will It Rain on the Democrats' Parade?

Nov. 7, 2006— -- Will it rain on the Democrats' parade?

Although most experts predict heavy voter turnout in today's midterm elections, some of the most hotly contested races in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and New Jersey could be affected by bad weather. And some experts say that, based on history, Republicans should pray for rain.

Brad Gomez, an assistant professor at the University of Georgia, examined weather data and its impact on elections in a study titled "The Effect of Bad Weather on Voter Turnout and Partisan Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2000."

Gomez concluded that when it rains, it pours at the polls for Democrats. Gomez found that "rain significantly reduces voter participation at the polls by a rate just under 1 percent per inch," and that every inch of rain cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.

As one example, election officials in Massachusetts recorded one of the lowest voter turnouts (64.7 percent) in recent history on a day in 1974 when rain poured down through the morning and afternoon.

But an exception to the weather theory is a nonpresidential election like today's: In the 1994 midterm elections, mild weather failed to dampen the prospects for Republican candidates, who swept both houses of Congress.

Here's a rundown of the weather forecast for some of today's most-heated races:

In Montana, where Democratic candidate Jon Tester is locked in a tight race with incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, heavy rain is expected throughout most of the state.

In Ohio, the bellwether of recent elections, rain is expected in Cincinnati, Toledo and Cleveland, with more severe showers in the more rural southeastern part of the state.

In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Bob Casey is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum, showers are expected throughout the state this afternoon.

In Tennessee, where Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is in a close contest with Republican candidate Bob Corker, rain is predicted all day in Nashville, with only a few showers in Ford's home of Memphis.