Interest in Election Runs High

Feb. 27, 2007 — -- Attention to the 2008 presidential race is extraordinarily high, especially for this early in the campaign. Partisans are by and large happy with their choices -- and initial support levels are showing some shifts in the preliminary jockeying for position.

It all makes for a hearty stew of election politics, with strong advantages but also serious hazards for the front-running candidates -- on one side, the sharp polarization inspired by Hillary Clinton (whose favorable rating has slipped under 50 percent for the first time in years); on the other, Republican concerns about Rudy Giuliani's positions on abortion and gay marriage -- with a range of subtexts on race, religion, age and more.

Even with the first nominating contests 11 months off and the general election 20 months away, 65 percent of Americans are closely following the 2008 race. That compares to just 37 percent of Democrats who were paying close attention at roughly this time (actually two months later) in the 2004 cycle (when the Republican nomination was uncontested).

And most people -- particularly Democrats -- like what they see. Eighty-six percent of Democrats say they're satisfied with the choice of candidates for the party's nomination, up sharply from their 64 to 69 percent satisfaction in ABC News/Washington Post polls in the 2000 and 2004 races.

On the Republican side, 73 percent are relatively content with their choices -- still a big majority, albeit 13 points lower than Democratic satisfaction. Indeed Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to be dissatisfied with their crop of candidates, 24 percent vs. 12 percent; and half as likely to be "very satisfied," 14 percent vs. 29 percent.

It follows that Democratic front-runners, Clinton and Barack Obama, have notably stronger support within their party than do the Republican leaders, Giuliani and John McCain. For all, of course, there's plenty of room -- and time -- to move.

Interests differ as well. Democrats cite the war in Iraq as the single biggest issue in their choice for the nomination, followed at some distance by the economy and health care; just 3 percent mention terrorism or security. Among Republicans, by contrast, terrorism, the war and the economy share top billing as voting concerns.