Demographic shift could color how N.H. votes

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Diane Beauregard says she has been a Republican since Ronald Reagan was president, but this year she's looking for a reason to vote Democrat in one of the nation's most closely watched Senate races.

So when Beauregard spotted former governor Jeanne Shaheen at a Stop & Shop, she yelled from the checkout line, put down her groceries and began grilling the Democratic Senate candidate on the economy, taxes and jobs.

"With the price of everything going up, the burden on the middle class is just too great," says Beauregard, a 50-year-old furniture store manager who says she was pleased with Shaheen's answers. "I'm extremely dissatisfied with the Republican Party."

Democrats hope to capitalize on that dissatisfaction in the Granite State, where Shaheen is mounting an aggressive campaign against Republican Sen. John Sununu in a rerun of their tight campaign six years ago. An influx of new Democrats to the state may help that effort.

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll in mid-September gave Shaheen a 4-percentage-point lead, which is within the margin of error.

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., who heads the Democratic Senate fundraising committee, has indicated that he hopes New Hampshire's race will help the party grow its 51-49 voting majority in the Senate.

Sununu, who beat Shaheen with 51% of the vote in 2002, is running a disciplined campaign, has $2.9 million more in the bank and has been underestimated before, says Dante Scala of the political science department at University of New Hampshire. "They don't panic," Scala says. "He kind of stuck to his game plan. Steady as it goes."

Independent-minded voters

At campaign events and in television advertisements, Shaheen tries to tie Sununu to President Bush and the faltering economy. Adopting a refrain of this year's presidential race, Shaheen frequently claims Sununu votes with Bush 90% of the time.

A Congressional Quarterly analysis of voting records shows Sununu voted with Bush 83% of the time in 2007 — down from 90% in 2006. In 2003 and 2004, he voted with Bush 95% and 96% of the time, respectively.