Breaking Down the Battleground States

Election Day often comes down to the results of a few crucial battleground states where key electoral votes can hold the key to the White House.

In 2000, that battleground was certainly Florida. In 2004, much of the election seemed to hinge on the results in Ohio.

In eight key battleground states, Democrat Barack Obama has taken an increasingly commanding electoral lead over Republican John McCain.

This year, the campaigns are focusing their time and money on several critical states where the race is hard-fought. But with the election looming just a week and a half away, Democratic candidate Barack Obama has taken an increasingly commanding electoral-vote lead in eight critical battleground states that could decide the presidency.

ABC News has looked at several factors to assess how those electoral votes may fall on Election Day -- including reporting from the campaigns themselves, national party officials, outside groups, House and Senate party committees, state parties and polls. Analysis shows that Republican candidate John McCain's support in these states -- all of which went to George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004 -- may not be enough.

On Wednesday, a top Republican campaign official told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos on the condition of anonymity that the Obama campaign is on a roll.

"This is the greatest ground game they've ever put together," he said. "It's scary."

Eight Key Battlegrounds

Eight states that could go either way -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina -- hold 111 of the 270 electoral votes needed for either candidate to win the presidency.

Whether those red states will turn blue is yet to be determined, but according to the latest polls, Obama has a 52-45 percent advantage in those battlegrounds. States like Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, previously leaning in McCain's favor, are now considered toss-ups.

With polls showing Obama leading in Colorado and Iowa, McCain needs to hold all the big states Bush won in 2004, plus capture a John Kerry state like Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency.

If this year's map breaks the way it did in 2004, then Obama would need to win only one of the red battleground states where he leads or is tied in polls with McCain. A victory in Virginia, Florida or Ohio would net Obama enough electoral votes to win the White House.

OHIO: 20 Electoral Votes
According to a Wednesday CNN/TIME/Opinion Research poll, Obama is up 50-46 in Ohio.

Voters in Ohio have selected the eventual winner in the past 11 presidential elections, and no Republican has ever won a presidential election without winning the state.

This election, economic discontent could be a decisive factor in that decisive race. With half a million Ohioans out of work -- the state's highest unemployment rate in 16 years -- and with the state also tallying the third-highest home foreclosure rate in the country, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll of Ohio finds that the economy is the single most important issue to the state's registered voters.

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In that environment, Obama could find success based on support from voters in the state's hard-hit industrial belt in the northeast, as well as in the heavily Democratic Cleveland metropolis. Conversely, the McCain campaign is working to secure the Republican strongholds of southeastern and southwestern Ohio, where white, working-class voters supported Sen. Hillary Clinton over Obama in the Democratic primary. McCain and VP pick Sarah Palin also appeared together in Green, Ohio, outside of Akron, this week in their first joint rally since Oct. 13 when they joined forces in Virginia Beach, Va.

Stark County, where Canton lies, and Franklin County, home to more than 50,000 students at Ohio State University in Columbus, are two key counties to watch.

Since the last presidential election, there are also indications that Ohio voters could be growing increasingly wary of Republican leadership. In 2006, the election of Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland ended a 16-year Republican hold on the governor's mansion.

Democrats won races for U.S. Senate, attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer. Ohio Republican Rep. Bob Ney also resigned his seat days before Election Day 2006, after pleading guilty to conspiracy, making false statements and receiving favors from lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Early voting began in Ohio on Sept. 30, and the Ohio secretary of state's office projects that 25 percent of Ohio voters could vote before Election Day.

FLORIDA: 27 Electoral Votes
The race in Florida is essentially tied, according to a Wednesday Mason-Dixon poll.

In an effort to secure the battleground, the McCain camp has devoted millions of dollars and staffers to the state in recent weeks. On Thursday, the candidate began a trans-Florida bus tour, stopping in swing counties across the central part of the state.

"We're doing well in Florida," McCain said at a recent stop in Plant City, Fl., reported ABC News' Bret Hovell. "We're gonna win here in Florida, and the great Governor Charlie Crist assures me of that, and he's never been wrong."

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent who has also been working Florida extensively for McCain, and McCain's vice presidential pick, Gov. Sarah Palin, have drawn tens of thousands of people at recent Florida events. McCain is also hoping the state's older population and a large number of veterans will help him win.

Since being soundly defeat in Florida by Clinton in the primary, Obama has made up ground. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe estimates the campaign will spend $39 million on its effort to win the state, and Obama is trying to energize black voters, whose participation in Florida elections usually lags.

There are also more than 650,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida, as of Oct. 1, although Republican strategists dismiss the advantage. They say Democratic registration has outnumbered Republican registration in the past two presidential contests as well, to no avail. They also contend that young Floridians simply don't vote.

Still, since going to Republicans in 2000 and 2004, Florida has changed. No longer experiencing a building boom, the state is now ranked No. 2 in the nation in home foreclosures and is facing its first recession in 16 years. In a dramatic shift, there are also now more registered Hispanic Democrats than registered Hispanic Republicans in comparison with 2004.

Florida Republicans say Tampa and Orlando hold the key to a McCain victory on Election Day. The Florida Panhandle will also be critical, with big cities including Tallahassee, Pensacola and Panama City. Obama is counting on a big turnout in Miami-Dade County.

MISSOURI: 11 Electoral Votes
As Missouri goes, so goes the nation. Missouri has backed the winner in every presidential election since 1900, with one exception: Adlai Stevenson won the state in 1956 but lost the presidential race to Dwight Eisenhower.

But some say the state's bellwether status could be in jeopardy this year. A strong Obama supporter, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, has been advising Democrats on how to increase support in Greene and St. Charles counties, both critical to McCaskill's win in 2006, as well as in other rural areas.

Obama, meantime, drew massive crowds of between 75,000 and 100,000 people each to this month's rallies in St. Louis and Kansas City, urban areas usually filled with Democratic votes compared to the rest of the rural, traditionally Republican parts of the state.