Schwarzenegger Package Appears Headed to Defeat

May 18, 2009 -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is facing a drubbing at the polls on Tuesday as California voters prepare to weigh in on six budget-related ballot measures backed by the former action movie star.

"Five of the six ballot measures are headed to defeat," Mark DiCamillo, the director of the non-partisan Field Poll, told ABC News. "There's a lack of trust. Voters have turned away from the governor. He will certainly be in lame duck status for the rest of his term."

A defeat on Tuesday would be a big setback not only for the Republican governor but also for the scores of Democrats and six Republicans in the state legislature who placed the propositions on the ballot as part of a budget deal struck in February. Voter approval is needed for these measures because they involve changes to the state's constitution.

According to public polling in the state, the only measure which is headed towards passage is Proposition 1F which would restrict pay hikes for elected officials in deficit years but not actually generate much in the way of savings for the taxpayers.

The other measures appear to be headed towards defeat (see below for a summary of all six).

California, home to one in eight Americans, is in dire fiscal shape.

Even if all of the ballot measures were to pass on Tuesday, the state is facing a deficit of $15.4 billion. If the measures do not pass, the state's budget shortfall gets even worse.

Schwarzenegger warned last week that if his package goes down to defeat, the state's deficit will swell to $21.3 billion.

The governor said a deficit of that size will force him to shorten the school year by seven days, cut off health care to more than 200,000 children, and shorten the state prison sentences of up to 19,000 illegal immigrants so they can be handed over to federal authorities for deportation.

If Proposition 1A, a measure that includes a tax hike and rainy day fund, goes down to defeat on Tuesday, anti-tax groups will have defeated a "yes" campaign which had significantly more resources.

It is not clear, however, how the state will react to the deep cuts which the governor says will be necessary if his ballot measures fail.