Six months of heated debate and messy legislative sausage-making have shifted almost no one's mind on health care reform: Bottom-line public attitudes today, tilting negative but not broadly so, are essentially the same as they've been since August.
Fifty-one percent of Americans oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by the Obama administration and Congress. Forty-four percent are in favor, with the rest undecided. That's identical to what it was a month ago.
Indeed, despite the changing components of the plan, opposition has hovered in a narrow 3-point band in each of six ABC News/Washington Post polls since August, and support's been between 44 and 48 percent. At 51-44 percent, each today is a single point from its average, 50-45 percent.
Nonetheless, in the last two readings more Americans have opposed than supported the measure, something that couldn't be said, giving polling tolerances, in the earlier polls. And what clearly has lost ground is the intensity of sentiment among supporters. At its peak, in September and again in November, 30 percent of Americans "strongly" backed the proposed changes. With the plan still going through its many iterations, that's dropped to 22 percent, a new low. Substantially more, 39 percent, are strongly opposed, a number that's held steadier.
With the Senate returning to Washington today, the intensity of opposition is one factor that may weigh on lawmakers up for re-election next fall. Twice as many Americans say they'd be much more apt to oppose a candidate who backed the plan, 24 percent, as to support one, 12 percent. Independents – swing voters in many contests – split about the same, 26 percent vs. 10 percent.
CHANGES and CONCERNS – Changes in the hopper as House and Senate Democrats hammer out their differences may not help. While there's reportedly a compromise on taxing high-benefit health plans, Americans by 58-22 percent prefer higher income taxes on wealthier Americans instead. And a public option, widely reported as dead, gets slightly more support than the alternative, private plans with terms negotiated by the government – a 47-41 percent split.
The public divides evenly on a third point of contention, the level of restrictions on abortion coverage in health plans in which the government's involved.
Like the bottom-line support, concerns about the plans are steady as well. Fifty-six percent think the new system would end up costing more than the current health care system – the opposite of its intended effect. Fifty-three percent think their own health care costs would be higher. And just 38 percent think the quality of their care would improve. (Other elements of reform have been more attractive, such as covering the uninsured and prohibiting limitations on coverage for pre-existing conditions.)
STABLE – It appears that bottom-line views have been so stable since August because they're based heavily on factors such as partisanship, ideology and attitudes on the appropriate role of government – all basic beliefs that tend not to change quickly.