Daily Tracking Poll: Bush Effect Impedes McCain; Fewer Than Half See 'New Direction'

Oct. 30, 2008— -- For all the focus on the economy as John McCain's greatest problem, there's another right behind it: George W. Bush.

More than seven in 10 Americans disapprove of Bush's job performance, near the 70-year record for disapproval he set earlier this month. McCain's struggled all year to distance himself from that long shadow – still a challenge with Election Day looming.

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Fewer than half of likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, 47 percent, think McCain would lead in a new direction; 50 percent instead say he'd mainly continue on Bush's path. McCain has not exceeded 48 percent "new direction" all year, at a time when dissatisfaction with the country's current course has hit record highs.

It matters: Among those who think McCain would lead in a new direction, 82 percent support him. But among those who think of him as Bush 2.0, 90 percent prefer Barack Obama instead – one of the starkest dividing lines between the two candidates.

Similarly, while McCain overwhelmingly is supported by the relatively few remaining Bush approvers, he loses Bush disapprovers – 72 percent of likely voters – by nearly a 3-1 margin, 71-27 percent. Even if he attracted every likely voter who approves of Bush, McCain would have to win at least a third of Bush disapprovers in order to catch Obama.

Obama continues to lead McCain by 52-44 percent in overall vote preference among likely voters, a stable race in ABC/Post data the last three weeks. Obama has reached or matched his highest support among men, whites, white men, married men and moderates in the latest results. McCain's at his best since July among evangelical white Protestants.

ISSUES – The economy swamps the issues list, cited by 53 percent as the single most important issue in their vote, with all other mentions in the single digits; the last election in which it dominated so heavily was 1992. McCain eroded Obama's lead in trust to handle the economy from 18 points last week to a low of 9 points earlier this week, but that stabilized yesterday, and it's a 12-point Obama lead on the economy now.