Daily Tracking Poll: Barack Obama Leads John McCain in Tone; Economy's His Main Boost

The 2008 campaign enters its final weekend with an advantage for Barack Obama in tone as well as substance: Likely voters are twice as apt to say John McCain has gone too far in criticizing Obama as to say Obama's crossed the line in taking on McCain.

It might be worth it for McCain if his criticisms were gaining traction -- but the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll suggests otherwise.

Slightly more likely voters see a bigger risk that McCain would create too few government regulations than that Obama would create too many -- one of McCain's lines of argument. And 54 percent see Obama as a "safe" choice for president, deflecting another McCain thrust.

Click here for PDF with charts and questionnaire.

On issues, Obama continues to lead in trust to handle the economy and taxes -- the latter especially unusual for a Democrat -- and they run about evenly, 49-46 percent, in trust to handle a crisis, another area in which McCain has struggled to gain greater leverage.

Economic concerns are boosting Obama in some usually more-Republican groups; in vote preference he runs evenly with McCain, for example, among white men who cite the economy as the single most important issue in their choice.

As a result Obama trails among white men overall by 9 points -- a group John Kerry lost by 25.

Even with these advantages for Obama the two are running closely in some customary swing voter groups: among independents, 50-46 percent Obama-McCain; among white Catholics, 48-49 percent; among married women, 48-49 percent.

And movable voters, the small group -- now just 8 percent -- who haven't made up their minds for sure, split 31-34 percent, with the rest fully undecided.

Obama gains his overall advantage, 53-44 percent among likely voters, with help from the fact that more Democrats than Republicans are likely voters. Democrats account for 37 percent of likely voters in this ABC/Post poll, about their usual level in exit polls. Republicans account for 28 percent, well under their norm.

That differential is greater than in previous presidential elections since 1984, in which voters have been anywhere from evenly divided between the two parties to +4 points Democratic.

And political party identification was just +2 points Democratic in the latest midterm election in 2006.

Obama Holds Edge Over McCain on Enthusiasm

If this election were a replay of past recent ones, more Republicans would vote, and the outcome would be closer than the current standings.

But other data counter that scenario, including a five-year Democratic gain in allegiance among all adults, from 31-31 percent parity in 2003 to an average 10-point Democratic advantage, 36-26 percent, in ABC/Post polls this year.

It's also a year in which enthusiasm for Obama is running far higher than it is for McCain, the incumbent Republican president has broken the record for disapproval in 70 years of polling, economic unease is at historic highs and new voter registration has soared, particularly among young adults, one of Obama's single best support groups.

Voters Critique McCain's Criticisms

Fifty percent of likely voters say McCain has "gone too far" in his criticisms of Obama, twice the number who say Obama's gone to far in criticizing McCain.

An additional 16 percent – almost all chiefly McCain partisans -- say he's not gone far enough.

Page
  • 1
  • |
  • 2
Join the Discussion
You are using an outdated version of Internet Explorer. Please click here to upgrade your browser in order to comment.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
You Might Also Like...
See It, Share It
PHOTO: Paul Curry reacts as a jury declares him guilty of murder in the 1994 death of his wife, Sept. 30, 2014.
Joshua Sudock/The Orange County Register/AP Photo
PHOTO:
Misty Gage/National Geographic 2014 Photo Contest
PHOTO: Molly Sims poses backstage at the Herve Leger By Max Azria fashion show during Mercedes-Benz Fashion Week Spring 2015 at The Theatre at Lincoln Center, Sept. 6, 2014, in New York.
Michael Loccisano/Getty Images
Bill Murray Goes Golfing
Richard Heathcote/Getty Images