Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Leads on Election Eve; Economy Makes the Difference

Nov. 3, 2008— -- Barack Obama has ridden his theme of change to a clear advantage in the closing days of the 2008 presidential campaign, his lead in overall vote preference buttressed by his personal and policy ratings alike -- and above all his trust to handle the battered economy.

Obama leads John McCain by 53-44 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, strong in the center and even encroaching on some Republican-leaning groups. Obama trails by 7 points among whites, for example -- a group John Kerry lost by 17.

That's because among whites focused most strongly on the economy, Obama leads.

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Obama, notably, has survived the campaign with his personal popularity intact: Sixty-three percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, steady at more than six in 10 since June. Fewer, 54 percent, see McCain favorably, after a race in which the tone of his campaign raised considerable criticism from likely voters.

Underscoring this difference, nearly half, 47 percent, have a "strongly" favorable opinion of Obama, compared with McCain's 30 percent. And in a longstanding gap, a remarkable 67 percent of Obama's supporters are very enthusiastic about his candidacy, compared with McCain's 41 percent.

Some last-minute narrowing is possible; Obama's advantage was somewhat smaller Monday night than in the previous three nights. But what risk remains for Obama is chiefly in his reliance on less certain voter groups, on lower-than-usual turnout by Republicans and on the final choices of the quintessential swing voters, independents.

Obama has better than a 2-1 lead, 67-30 percent, among young voters, and nearly as big an advantage among first-time voters. While their turnout is a question mark, Obama's built a cushion by encouraging early and absentee voting. Thirty-three percent of likely voters say they've already cast their ballots -- favoring Obama by 58-40 percent.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by 5 percentage points in this survey, a gap that's fluctuated in the past few weeks but always remained in the Democrats' favor. In 2004, Republican and Democratic voters were at parity; if more Republicans show up this time, it'd boost McCain.

At the same time, Obama's closing the campaign with a 14-point lead among swing-voting independents, his best since late September. Independents, though, have been unusually movable this year, ranging in just the past month from a dead heat to Obama's current lead.

These variables more than any other -- the partisanship of actual voters and the direction of the independent vote -- will spell the final margin.